Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Volendam v Fortuna Sittard

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Volendam (Local)

Prediction 39.60%2.52fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.881%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.27%39.70%39.63%40.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.382.4746.51%42.60%42.02%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fortuna Sittard (Visit)

Prediction 34.00%2.94fair odd
EV +0.286%
Edge +0.097%
Kelly +0.147%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.64%33.94%33.99%35.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.742.752.9540.82%36.52%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.40%3.79fair odd
EV +0.321%
Edge +0.084%
Kelly +0.115%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.38%26.36%26.38%28.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.503.553.8033.33%28.58%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Volendam (Local): 39.60%; Fortuna Sittard (Visit): 34.00%; Draw: 26.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.321%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.12%EV -4.16%E -1.72%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.91%EV +0.286%E +0.097%K +0.147%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-14 15:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -2.97%E -1.21%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.85%EV -2.09%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.35%EV -2.32%E -0.627%K -0.859%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-14 14:35
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.22%EV -2.18%E -0.881%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.87%EV -2.77%E -0.970%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.91%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-14 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.97%E -1.21%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.97%EV -3.11%E -1.09%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%EV -3.64%E -0.997%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 14:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.97%E -1.21%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.97%EV -3.11%E -1.09%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%EV -3.64%E -0.997%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 14:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%EV -4.95%E -2.06%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV +0.321%E +0.084%K +0.115%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 15:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.18%EV -4.95%E -2.06%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.44%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV +0.321%E +0.084%K +0.115%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 15:05
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.11%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.80%EV -2.32%E -0.627%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 15:23
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.55%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -0.999%E -0.266%K -0.363%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -4.95%E -2.06%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 14:35
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.28%EV -4.16%E -1.72%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.95%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 15:04
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.28%EV -4.16%E -1.72%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.95%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.82%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-14 04:05
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.82%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-14 12:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.68%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 04:05
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.68%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 14:35
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.68%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 14:35
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.68%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 14:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -4.81%E -1.72%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 15:10
Bovada🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.48%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.05%EV -6.17%E -2.24%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 15:25
BetUS🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.48%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.05%EV -6.17%E -2.24%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 15:25
BetAnything🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.48%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.05%EV -6.17%E -2.24%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 15:25
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -4.95%E -2.06%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 12:44
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.95%E -2.06%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 15:24
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.95%E -2.06%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 12:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 15:15
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 12:55
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.28%E -1.77%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 15:15
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 14:35
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 14:35
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 15:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 15:15
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -10.24%E -3.01%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 15:05
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.88%E -3.90%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 15:20
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.88%E -3.90%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.88%E -3.90%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -6.51%E -2.37%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.88%E -3.90%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-14 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.24%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.08%EV -6.85%E -2.50%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 15:25
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -2.97%E -1.21%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 14:49
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -2.97%E -1.21%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -4.96%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 14:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -2.97%E -1.21%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-14 14:50
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.04%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.41%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 15:24
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -4.95%E -2.06%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -10.24%E -3.01%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 15:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.65%EV -8.12%E -3.50%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.07%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 14:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -8.92%E -2.59%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 14:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -8.92%E -2.59%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-14 14:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.90%EV -13.66%E -6.27%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -8.21%E -3.04%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.07%EV -9.71%E -2.84%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-14 15:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.54%EV -14.85%E -6.91%K -12.91%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.64%EV -9.23%E -3.46%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.82%EV -14.20%E -4.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-14 15:25
Fliff🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -9.91%E -3.74%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -10.24%E -3.01%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-14 15:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -10.89%E -4.84%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.07%EV -9.91%E -3.74%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.80%EV -7.60%E -2.17%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-14 04:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.76%EV -14.85%E -6.91%K -12.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.07%EV -9.91%E -3.74%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.16%EV -11.56%E -3.45%K -4.92%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 15:15
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -10.93%E -4.17%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -12.88%E -3.90%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-14 15:25
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -11.61%E -4.47%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -10.24%E -3.01%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-14 12:54
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -11.61%E -4.47%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.30%EV -14.20%E -4.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-14 15:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.84%EV -12.87%E -5.85%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.38%EV -13.31%E -5.22%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -10.24%E -3.01%K -4.27%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 04:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.27%EV -12.87%E -5.85%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.67%EV -15.01%E -6.00%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.06%EV -20.80%E -6.93%K -10.40%G +0.000%18.8%2026-03-14 15:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 38.89%EV -14.85%E -6.91%K -12.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.13%EV -16.71%E -6.82%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.97%EV -18.16%E -5.86%K -8.65%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-14 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.21%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-03-14 15:25
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 39.83%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.83%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.34%1.2%2026-03-14 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.41%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.97%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-03-14 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.41%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.97%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-03-14 15:25
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-03-14 15:20
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.74%2.4%2026-03-14 15:25