Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 15:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Utrecht (Local)

Prediction 41.90%2.39fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.834%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.97%41.93%41.91%43.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.222.232.3450.00%45.12%44.84%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AZ Alkmaar (Visit)

Prediction 30.04%3.33fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.539%
Kelly -0.777%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.08%30.06%29.96%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.823.103.103.2735.46%32.25%32.26%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.06%3.56fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.514%
Kelly -0.720%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.65%28.01%28.12%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.323.323.5034.48%30.12%30.12%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Utrecht (Local): 41.90%; AZ Alkmaar (Visit): 30.04%; Draw: 28.06%. For AZ Alkmaar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.27, with an expected value of -1.76%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.49%EV -1.95%E -0.834%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.96%EV -2.66%E -0.823%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -4.61%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-01 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.49%EV -1.95%E -0.834%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.96%EV -2.66%E -0.823%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV -4.61%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-01 15:00
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.79%E -1.20%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.37%EV -6.01%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 15:00
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -2.79%E -1.20%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.37%EV -6.01%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 15:00
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.94%EV -3.21%E -1.39%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.37%EV -4.17%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -1.80%E -0.514%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-01 15:39
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.55%EV -3.63%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.34%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.11%EV -4.61%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-01 15:00
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -3.63%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -3.63%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 14:59
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -3.63%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 15:00
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -3.63%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 15:00
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.30%EV -4.05%E -1.77%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.62%EV -1.76%E -0.539%K -0.777%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.08%EV -3.20%E -0.929%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-01 15:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.30%EV -4.46%E -1.96%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.14%EV -3.87%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -1.80%E -0.514%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-01 15:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.30%EV -4.46%E -1.96%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.14%EV -3.87%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -1.80%E -0.514%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-01 15:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.30%EV -4.46%E -1.96%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.14%EV -3.87%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -1.80%E -0.514%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-01 15:14
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV -6.27%E -2.01%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -1.80%E -0.514%K -0.720%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-01 14:58
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.18%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -3.20%E -0.929%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-01 15:14
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -3.87%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 15:19
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -6.01%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 14:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 15:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 14:59
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -8.37%E -2.75%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 15:00
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.48%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.07%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.46%EV -3.20%E -0.929%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 15:14
Bovada🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.01%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 15:37
BetUS🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.01%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 15:39
BetAnything🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.13%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.01%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 15:39
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.61%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 15:14
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.61%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 15:14
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -4.61%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 15:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.70%EV -7.40%E -3.35%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -3.20%E -0.929%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 14:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.24%EV -7.40%E -3.35%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.12%EV -6.85%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 15:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -3.20%E -0.929%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 14:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -3.87%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 15:14
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.61%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 15:14
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -3.87%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 15:40
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.28%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 15:13
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.01%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-01 15:14
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -6.01%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-01 15:14
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-01 15:00
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-01 14:59
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-01 14:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-01 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-01 14:59
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -12.88%E -4.44%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-01 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.39%EV -9.07%E -4.18%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.37%E -2.75%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -6.01%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-01 15:14
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.91%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.22%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-01 15:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.91%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.87%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-01 15:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.91%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.87%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-01 15:14
Fliff🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.91%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -9.87%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-01 15:14
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.91%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -9.87%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-01 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.87%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -4.61%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-01 14:49
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.47%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.88%EV -15.28%E -5.42%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.65%EV -11.62%E -3.69%K -5.40%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-01 14:58
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -14.10%E -6.88%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -8.37%E -2.75%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-01 15:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -14.10%E -6.88%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -8.37%E -2.75%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -7.41%E -2.25%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-01 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.55%EV -14.10%E -6.88%K -13.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.61%EV -14.38%E -5.05%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.84%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-01 14:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.82%EV -16.20%E -8.10%K -16.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.34%EV -14.38%E -5.05%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.84%EV -18.63%E -6.43%K -9.81%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-01 15:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-03-01 15:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-03-01 15:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-03-01 15:40
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-03-01 15:39
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%1.9%2026-03-01 15:35