Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Twente Enschede v SC Telstar

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 16:45 UTC

Final: FC Twente Enschede 1–0 SC Telstar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Twente Enschede (Local)

Prediction 76.39%1.31fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -11.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.28%76.36%76.36%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2784.75%81.94%81.97%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Telstar (Visit)

Prediction 9.56%10.46fair odd
EV +19.50%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +1.70%
Growth +0.330%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.58%9.51%9.54%10.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.9210.0012.5011.76%10.08%10.00%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.05%7.12fair odd
EV +5.38%
Edge +0.718%
Kelly +0.828%
Growth +0.045%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.70%14.13%14.10%16.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.536.507.5017.54%15.32%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Twente Enschede (Local): 76.39%; SC Telstar (Visit): 9.56%; Draw: 14.05%. For SC Telstar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.46. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.35%EV -5.28%E -4.26%K -21.99%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.77%EV +19.50%E +1.56%K +1.70%G +0.330%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.88%EV -1.64%E -0.235%K -0.274%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-09 16:41
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.80%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.05%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV +19.50%E +1.56%K +1.70%G +0.330%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.62%EV -19.91%E -3.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 16:10
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.80%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.05%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV +19.50%E +1.56%K +1.70%G +0.330%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.62%EV -19.91%E -3.49%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 16:30
Bet Victor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.37%EV -8.33%E -6.94%K -41.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +14.72%E +1.23%K +1.34%G +0.197%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV +5.38%E +0.718%K +0.828%G +0.045%5.0%2026-09-09 16:05
betano_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.37%EV -8.33%E -6.94%K -41.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +14.72%E +1.23%K +1.34%G +0.197%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV +5.38%E +0.718%K +0.828%G +0.045%5.0%2026-09-09 16:03
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV +14.72%E +1.23%K +1.34%G +0.197%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -19.21%E -3.34%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:41
Fanatics🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.81%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +5.16%E +0.469%K +0.516%G +0.027%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.56%EV -1.64%E -0.235%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 15:30
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.38%EV -5.28%E -4.26%K -21.99%G +0.000%10.60I 9.43%NM 9.05%EV +1.33%E +0.126%K +0.139%G +0.002%7.07I 14.14%NM 13.57%EV -0.658%E -0.093%K -0.108%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-09 16:41
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.92%EV -3.75%E -2.98%K -14.42%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.23%EV +0.376%E +0.036%K +0.040%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.85%EV -1.64%E -0.235%K -0.274%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-09 15:56
Svenska Spel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.05%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV +0.376%E +0.036%K +0.040%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.76%EV -1.64%E -0.235%K -0.274%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-09 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.05%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV +0.376%E +0.036%K +0.040%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.76%EV -1.64%E -0.235%K -0.274%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-09 15:56
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.11%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.96%EV +0.376%E +0.036%K +0.040%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -5.15%E -0.764%K -0.896%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 16:35
SportsBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.25%EV -7.57%E -6.26%K -36.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV +0.376%E +0.036%K +0.040%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -5.15%E -0.764%K -0.896%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 16:41
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.33%E -6.94%K -41.67%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV +0.376%E +0.036%K +0.040%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -1.64%E -0.235%K -0.274%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 16:20
BetAnything🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.52%EV -5.28%E -4.26%K -21.99%G +0.000%10.30I 9.71%NM 9.21%EV -1.54%E -0.149%K -0.165%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.27%EV -6.56%E -0.986%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 16:41
LowVig.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.44%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.05%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.32%EV -2.01%E -0.196%K -0.218%G +0.000%6.71I 14.90%NM 14.24%EV -5.72%E -0.852%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 15:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.44%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.05%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.32%EV -2.01%E -0.196%K -0.218%G +0.000%6.71I 14.90%NM 14.24%EV -5.72%E -0.852%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 15:36
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.86%EV -5.28%E -4.26%K -21.99%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.61%EV -1.64%E -0.235%K -0.274%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 16:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.00%EV -6.04%E -4.91%K -26.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -1.64%E -0.235%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 15:55
Grosvenor🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.00%EV -6.04%E -4.91%K -26.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.53%EV -1.64%E -0.235%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 16:41
Bovada🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.62%EV -6.04%E -4.91%K -26.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.96%EV -5.15%E -0.764%K -0.896%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 16:40
BetUS🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.76%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.87%EV -5.15%E -0.764%K -0.896%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 16:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.44%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.24%EV -7.96%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 16:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 16:36
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.69%E -2.62%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.69%E -2.62%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 16:30
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.69%E -2.62%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 16:36
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.69%E -2.62%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 16:30
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -8.33%E -6.94%K -41.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 15:56
Bet Right🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -7.57%E -6.26%K -36.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -4.40%E -0.440%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -15.69%E -2.62%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 16:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.55%EV -6.04%E -4.91%K -26.27%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.61%EV -6.32%E -0.644%K -0.718%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.85%EV -4.45%E -0.655%K -0.768%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 16:00
Coolbet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.39%EV -3.75%E -2.98%K -14.42%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV -9.18%E -0.967%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 16:55
Casumo🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.38%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -9.18%E -0.967%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -5.15%E -0.764%K -0.896%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 16:41
Unibet (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.38%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -9.18%E -0.967%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -5.15%E -0.764%K -0.896%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 16:41
betPARX🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.38%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -9.18%E -0.967%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -5.15%E -0.764%K -0.896%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 16:41
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.98%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -9.18%E -0.967%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 16:41
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.28%EV -8.33%E -6.94%K -41.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -9.18%E -0.967%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.08%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 16:10
Paddy Power🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.71%EV -9.86%E -8.36%K -54.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -9.18%E -0.967%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -15.69%E -2.62%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 16:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.71%EV -9.86%E -8.36%K -54.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -9.18%E -0.967%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -15.69%E -2.62%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 16:30
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.45%EV -2.99%E -2.35%K -11.06%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.36%EV -11.57%E -1.25%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.20%EV -5.15%E -0.764%K -0.896%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-09 13:21
Betclic (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.24%EV -9.10%E -7.64%K -47.88%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.81%EV -11.57%E -1.25%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.96%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-09 16:18
NetBet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.88%EV -9.86%E -8.36%K -54.78%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.68%EV -11.57%E -1.25%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.44%EV -12.88%E -2.08%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -13.96%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 12:20
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.12%EV -4.51%E -3.61%K -18.05%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.43%EV -13.96%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-09 12:20
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.57%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.96%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 16:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.30%EV -7.57%E -6.26%K -36.04%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -13.96%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -12.18%E -1.95%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 16:41
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -8.33%E -6.94%K -41.67%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -13.96%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -15.69%E -2.62%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 16:41
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.61%EV -9.10%E -7.64%K -47.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -13.96%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.40%EV -12.18%E -1.95%K -2.32%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 16:41
LiveScore Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.61%EV -9.10%E -7.64%K -47.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -13.96%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.40%EV -12.18%E -1.95%K -2.32%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 16:41
Virgin Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.61%EV -9.10%E -7.64%K -47.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -13.96%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.40%EV -12.18%E -1.95%K -2.32%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 16:41
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.99%EV -9.10%E -7.64%K -47.88%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.38%EV -17.79%E -2.07%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.63%EV -14.29%E -2.34%K -2.80%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 16:20
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.28%EV -6.04%E -4.91%K -26.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -18.74%E -2.21%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.98%EV -14.29%E -2.34%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 15:56
Winamax (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.82%EV -8.33%E -6.94%K -41.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -18.74%E -2.21%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.48%EV -5.15%E -0.764%K -0.896%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.82%EV -8.33%E -6.94%K -41.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -18.74%E -2.21%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.48%EV -5.15%E -0.764%K -0.896%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 15:56
TABtouch🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.43%EV -6.81%E -5.58%K -30.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -18.74%E -2.21%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.89%EV -14.29%E -2.34%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 15:56
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.43%EV -8.33%E -6.94%K -41.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.65%EV -18.74%E -2.21%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.92%EV -8.67%E -1.33%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-09 16:41
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.26I 79.37%NM 78.67%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.40%0.9%2026-09-09 16:41
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.62%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.62%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%0.9%2026-09-09 16:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%1.0%2026-09-09 16:41
Smarkets1.26I 79.37%NM 78.38%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.72%1.3%2026-09-09 16:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.38%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.72%1.3%2026-09-09 16:41
Kalshi1.27I 78.74%NM 77.39%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.85%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.77%1.7%2026-09-09 15:36