Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Twente Enschede v FC Volendam

Inicio: 2026-04-10 18:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Twente Enschede (Local)

Predicción 78.55%1.27momio equitativo
EV -3.38%
Ventaja -2.75%
Kelly -14.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
76.05%78.58%78.48%81.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.121.181.181.2389.29%84.92%84.75%81.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Volendam (Visitante)

Predicción 8.49%11.78momio equitativo
EV +27.37%
Ventaja +1.82%
Kelly +1.96%
Crecimiento +0.535%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 15.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.46%8.45%8.53%10.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
8.5011.7411.2515.0011.76%8.52%8.89%6.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 12.96%7.72momio equitativo
EV +3.67%
Ventaja +0.459%
Kelly +0.524%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.91%12.97%13.00%14.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.007.197.208.0016.67%13.90%13.89%12.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: FC Twente Enschede (Local): 78.55%; FC Volendam (Visitante): 8.49%; Empate: 12.96%. Para FC Volendam (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 11.78. 26 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 15.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +27.37%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 81.30%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.50%EV +27.37%E +1.82%K +1.96%G +0.535%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.20%EV +3.67%E +0.459%K +0.524%G +0.019%2.5%2026-04-10 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 81.30%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.50%EV +27.37%E +1.82%K +1.96%G +0.535%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.20%EV +3.67%E +0.459%K +0.524%G +0.019%2.5%2026-04-10 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.43%EV -6.53%E -5.48%K -34.35%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.46%EV +27.37%E +1.82%K +1.96%G +0.535%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.11%EV +3.67%E +0.459%K +0.524%G +0.019%3.2%2026-04-10 09:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -8.10%E -6.92%K -47.63%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV +18.88%E +1.35%K +1.45%G +0.274%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-10 17:30
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -8.10%E -6.92%K -47.63%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV +18.88%E +1.35%K +1.45%G +0.274%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-10 09:00
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.81%EV -8.88%E -7.66%K -55.52%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV +18.88%E +1.35%K +1.45%G +0.274%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-10 17:30
Casumo🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.81%EV -8.88%E -7.66%K -55.52%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV +18.88%E +1.35%K +1.45%G +0.274%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 14:20
betPARX🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.81%EV -8.88%E -7.66%K -55.52%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV +18.88%E +1.35%K +1.45%G +0.274%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.94%EV -9.67%E -8.41%K -64.45%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +18.88%E +1.35%K +1.45%G +0.274%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 14:20
TABtouch🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.94%EV -9.67%E -8.41%K -64.45%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.65%EV +18.88%E +1.35%K +1.45%G +0.274%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-09 14:19
LeoVegas🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.07%EV -10.45%E -9.17%K -74.67%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV +18.88%E +1.35%K +1.45%G +0.274%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.07%EV -10.45%E -9.17%K -74.67%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV +18.88%E +1.35%K +1.45%G +0.274%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 17:05
Coolbet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.50%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +10.39%E +0.799%K +0.866%G +0.090%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.16%EV -6.05%E -0.834%K -0.968%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-10 17:09
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.76%EV -7.31%E -6.20%K -40.62%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +10.39%E +0.799%K +0.866%G +0.090%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +3.67%E +0.459%K +0.524%G +0.019%4.9%2026-04-10 16:05
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.68%EV -8.88%E -7.66%K -55.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV +10.39%E +0.799%K +0.866%G +0.090%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.20%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -11.24%E -9.95%K -86.45%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV +10.39%E +0.799%K +0.866%G +0.090%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-10 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -11.24%E -9.95%K -86.45%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV +10.39%E +0.799%K +0.866%G +0.090%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-10 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.11%EV -11.24%E -9.95%K -86.45%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV +10.39%E +0.799%K +0.866%G +0.090%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-10 17:30
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -6.53%E -5.48%K -34.35%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV +6.15%E +0.492%K +0.534%G +0.033%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.80%EV -4.10%E -0.555%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-10 17:05
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -6.53%E -5.48%K -34.35%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.58%EV +6.15%E +0.492%K +0.534%G +0.033%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.80%EV -4.10%E -0.555%K -0.641%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-10 17:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.78%EV -8.10%E -6.92%K -47.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +1.90%E +0.158%K +0.173%G +0.003%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-10 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -6.53%E -5.48%K -34.35%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +1.90%E +0.158%K +0.173%G +0.003%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -12.53%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 17:35
PlayUp🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -6.53%E -5.48%K -34.35%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +1.90%E +0.158%K +0.173%G +0.003%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -12.53%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.40%EV -6.53%E -5.48%K -34.35%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +1.90%E +0.158%K +0.173%G +0.003%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -12.53%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 17:35
Bet Right🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -7.31%E -6.20%K -40.62%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV +1.90%E +0.158%K +0.173%G +0.003%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-10 17:10
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.72%EV -10.45%E -9.17%K -74.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.48%EV +1.90%E +0.158%K +0.173%G +0.003%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -15.77%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-10 17:50
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.40%EV -4.96%E -4.10%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.32I 8.83%NM 8.49%EV -3.87%E -0.342%K -0.375%G +0.000%7.93I 12.61%NM 12.11%EV +2.76%E +0.349%K +0.399%G +0.011%4.1%2026-04-10 17:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -7.31%E -6.20%K -40.62%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.31%EV -4.47%E -0.397%K -0.436%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-10 17:44
1xBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 79.03%EV -3.38%E -2.75%K -14.71%G +0.000%11.10I 9.01%NM 8.76%EV -5.74%E -0.517%K -0.569%G +0.000%7.96I 12.56%NM 12.21%EV +3.15%E +0.396%K +0.453%G +0.014%2.9%2026-04-10 17:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -4.96%E -4.10%K -23.60%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV -6.59%E -0.599%K -0.659%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.15%EV -6.70%E -0.930%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-10 17:35
Fanatics🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -6.59%E -0.599%K -0.659%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 17:55
DraftKings🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -6.59%E -0.599%K -0.659%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.09%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.52%EV -6.59%E -0.599%K -0.659%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-10 17:34
Everygame🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.08%EV -7.31%E -6.20%K -40.62%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -6.59%E -0.599%K -0.659%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 06:29
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -6.59%E -0.599%K -0.659%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -15.77%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-10 17:34
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.81%EV -9.67%E -8.41%K -64.45%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV -6.59%E -0.599%K -0.659%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 17:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.30%EV -10.45%E -9.17%K -74.67%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.01%EV -6.59%E -0.599%K -0.659%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.69%EV -22.25%E -3.71%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-10 17:10
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.85%EV -4.17%E -3.42%K -18.95%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.05%EV -10.84%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.10%EV -6.05%E -0.834%K -0.968%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-10 06:40
BetUS🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.48%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -10.84%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 17:45
BetAnything🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.48%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -10.84%E -1.03%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -2.81%E -0.374%K -0.432%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 17:45
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -4.17%E -3.42%K -18.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.14%EV -4.17%E -3.42%K -18.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 06:40
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 17:50
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 17:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -5.74%E -4.78%K -28.70%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 17:50
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.73%EV -7.31%E -6.20%K -40.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.10%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-10 17:45
Sky Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.14%EV -10.45%E -9.17%K -74.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.79%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.07%EV -19.01%E -3.04%K -3.62%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-10 17:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 78.25%EV -12.02%E -10.74%K -100.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.76%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.98%EV -12.53%E -1.86%K -2.18%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-10 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.86%EV -7.31%E -6.20%K -40.62%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -16.78%E -1.71%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.76%EV -6.70%E -0.930%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.86%EV -7.31%E -6.20%K -40.62%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -16.78%E -1.71%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.76%EV -6.70%E -0.930%K -1.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 17:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 77.39%EV -9.67%E -8.41%K -64.45%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.13%EV -17.21%E -1.76%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.48%EV -14.47%E -2.19%K -2.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-10 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 76.89%EV -8.88%E -7.66%K -55.52%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.39%EV -19.33%E -2.03%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.72%EV -15.77%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-10 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.94%EV -7.31%E -6.20%K -40.62%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.09%EV -23.58%E -2.62%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.97%EV -9.29%E -1.33%K -1.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-10 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 76.05%EV -8.88%E -7.66%K -55.52%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.38%EV -27.82%E -3.27%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.57%EV -15.77%E -2.43%K -2.87%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-10 17:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.22I 81.97%NM 81.18%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.93%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.89%1.0%2026-04-10 14:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.05%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.59%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.36%1.1%2026-04-10 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.05%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.59%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.36%1.1%2026-04-10 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.22I 81.97%NM 81.05%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.59%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.36%1.1%2026-04-10 17:50
Matchbook1.22I 81.97%NM 81.05%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.59%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.36%1.1%2026-04-10 17:50
Smarkets1.21I 82.64%NM 80.92%14.99I 6.67%NM 6.53%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.55%2.1%2026-04-10 17:50