Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior v Sparta Rotterdam

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:30 UTC

Final: Excelsior 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Excelsior (Local)

Prediction 43.23%2.31fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.628%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.89%43.33%43.24%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.172.2848.78%46.27%46.19%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sparta Rotterdam (Visit)

Prediction 31.17%3.21fair odd
EV -0.260%
Edge -0.081%
Kelly -0.118%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%31.09%31.18%32.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.993.003.2035.71%33.42%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.60%3.91fair odd
EV -0.932%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.325%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.74%25.59%25.58%26.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.623.603.8730.30%27.63%27.78%25.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Excelsior (Local): 43.23%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visit): 31.17%; Draw: 25.60%. For Sparta Rotterdam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -0.260%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.82%EV -1.43%E -0.628%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.49%EV -3.38%E -1.09%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.69%EV -2.72%E -0.717%K -0.973%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-29 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.78%EV -2.73%E -1.21%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.56%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.67%EV -4.00%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-29 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.78%EV -2.73%E -1.21%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.56%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.67%EV -4.00%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-29 14:25
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.63%EV -3.59%E -1.61%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.68%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.48%EV -4.02%E -1.81%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -1.82%E -0.577%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.88%EV -4.52%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 13:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.48%EV -4.02%E -1.81%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -1.82%E -0.577%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.88%EV -4.52%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 13:35
BetAnything🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.48%EV -4.02%E -1.81%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.64%EV -1.82%E -0.577%K -0.846%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.88%EV -4.52%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 13:35
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.65%EV -4.02%E -1.81%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 14:25
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.65%EV -4.02%E -1.81%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 14:25
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.40%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.38%E -1.09%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.80%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 08:10
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.40%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.38%E -1.09%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.80%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 08:10
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.40%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.38%E -1.09%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.80%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 14:10
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 14:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -6.56%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 14:20
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.05%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 14:25
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.05%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 14:25
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.05%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 14:25
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -9.61%E -3.31%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 14:25
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -9.61%E -3.31%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 14:25
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.61%E -3.31%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 14:25
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.61%E -3.31%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.61%E -3.31%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -4.89%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.61%E -3.31%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 14:25
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.27%EV -5.32%E -2.43%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.68%EV -1.51%E -0.477%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.05%EV -0.932%E -0.241%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-29 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.21%EV -5.32%E -2.43%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.45%EV -0.883%E -0.278%K -0.405%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.35%EV -2.21%E -0.579%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-29 14:15
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -5.75%E -2.64%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -8.05%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -9.12%E -2.57%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 14:25
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.41%EV -7.05%E -3.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.38%E -1.09%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -1.44%E -0.375%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 14:19
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.35%EV -7.05%E -3.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.56%EV -2.75%E -0.882%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -2.72%E -0.717%K -0.973%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 14:20
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.35%EV -7.05%E -3.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.56%EV -2.75%E -0.882%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -2.72%E -0.717%K -0.973%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 14:23
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -7.05%E -3.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -2.72%E -0.717%K -0.973%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.05%E -3.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.38%E -1.09%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 14:14
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.05%E -3.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -3.38%E -1.09%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 14:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.05%E -3.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 08:10
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.29%EV -7.05%E -3.28%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -9.61%E -3.31%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -11.68%E -3.39%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 14:05
Bovada🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -7.48%E -3.50%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -4.93%E -1.62%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 14:23
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.56%EV -7.48%E -3.50%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.38%EV -7.43%E -2.50%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.06%EV -4.77%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 14:04
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -7.48%E -3.50%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -10.23%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 14:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -7.48%E -3.50%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -10.23%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 14:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 42.59%EV -7.92%E -3.72%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.50%EV -10.23%E -3.55%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 14:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.40%EV -8.35%E -3.94%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -11.17%E -3.92%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.68%E -3.39%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.40%EV -8.35%E -3.94%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -11.17%E -3.92%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.68%E -3.39%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 14:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.40%EV -8.35%E -3.94%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -11.17%E -3.92%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -11.68%E -3.39%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 14:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -9.21%E -4.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.21%E -4.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 14:20
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.72%EV -9.21%E -4.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.12%EV -8.05%E -2.73%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -6.56%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.25%EV -9.21%E -4.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -11.17%E -3.92%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.88%EV -6.56%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-29 14:10
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.21%E -4.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -12.96%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.21%E -4.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -6.49%E -2.16%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -12.96%E -3.81%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 14:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.38%EV -10.51%E -5.08%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.96%EV -9.61%E -3.31%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -10.40%E -2.97%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-29 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -11.37%E -5.55%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -0.260%E -0.081%K -0.118%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.28%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.78%EV -11.37%E -5.55%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -9.61%E -3.31%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.28%EV -9.12%E -2.57%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-29 14:10
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -11.37%E -5.55%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.73%E -4.55%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -7.84%E -2.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-29 14:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.30%EV -11.37%E -5.55%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.70%EV -12.73%E -4.55%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.00%EV -9.12%E -2.57%K -3.58%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-29 14:10
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -11.37%E -5.55%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -9.61%E -3.31%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -15.52%E -4.70%K -6.75%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-29 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 44.05%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 25.00%0.0%2026-08-29 14:05
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.18%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-29 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.87%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-08-29 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.26%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.92%1.5%2026-08-29 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.26%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.92%1.5%2026-08-29 14:25
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.67%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.17%1.9%2026-08-29 14:25