La escuela de los momios

Excelsior v FC Utrecht

Inicio: 2026-04-26 10:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Excelsior (Local)

Predicción 30.27%3.30momio equitativo
EV +1.39%
Ventaja +0.416%
Kelly +0.593%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.88%30.30%30.23%31.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.083.103.3535.71%32.45%32.26%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Utrecht (Visitante)

Predicción 42.92%2.33momio equitativo
EV -3.43%
Ventaja -1.53%
Kelly -2.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.48%42.88%42.97%44.69%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.152.182.2550.00%46.52%45.87%44.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.81%3.73momio equitativo
EV -0.785%
Ventaja -0.212%
Kelly -0.291%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.82%26.81%26.80%28.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.463.503.7033.33%28.86%28.57%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV +1.39%E +0.416%K +0.593%G +0.008%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.30%EV -0.785%E -0.212%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-23 10:50
ATG (SE)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV +1.39%E +0.416%K +0.593%G +0.008%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.48%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%EV -2.13%E -0.582%K -0.802%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 10:49
Svenska Spel3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV +1.39%E +0.416%K +0.593%G +0.008%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.48%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%EV -2.13%E -0.582%K -0.802%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 10:49
Unibet (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.23%EV -1.63%E -0.502%K -0.726%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.39%EV -8.15%E -3.81%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -3.47%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 10:49
Unibet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -1.63%E -0.502%K -0.726%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.45%EV -9.01%E -4.25%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 10:50
Casumo3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -1.63%E -0.502%K -0.726%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 10:49
betPARX3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -1.63%E -0.502%K -0.726%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 10:50
BetRivers3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -3.15%E -0.983%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 10:49
Tipico (DE)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.15%E -0.983%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 06:40
Grosvenor3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -3.15%E -0.983%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV -10.73%E -5.16%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 10:50
TABtouch3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -3.15%E -0.983%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV -10.73%E -5.16%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 10:49
1xBet3.19I 31.35%NM 30.07%EV -3.45%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.83%EV -3.86%E -1.72%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.10%EV -5.08%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-23 22:15
NordicBet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.25%EV -4.66%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.92%EV -4.72%E -2.13%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 06:40
Betsson3.15I 31.75%NM 30.25%EV -4.66%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.92%EV -4.72%E -2.13%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 06:44
Pinnacle3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -4.66%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.06%EV -5.15%E -2.33%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.73%EV -4.54%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 06:40
Unibet (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -4.66%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 10:20
Codere (IT)3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -4.66%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.36%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.63%EV -4.81%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 22:19
LeoVegas3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -4.66%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.47%EV -11.16%E -5.39%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 10:50
LeoVegas (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -4.66%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.47%EV -11.16%E -5.39%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 10:50
Virgin Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.93%EV -4.66%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.66%EV -12.45%E -6.10%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 10:50
PMU (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 28.93%EV -4.66%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.66%EV -12.45%E -6.10%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 10:49
LiveScore Bet3.15I 31.75%NM 28.93%EV -4.66%E -1.48%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.66%EV -12.45%E -6.10%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 10:49
Bovada3.12I 32.05%NM 30.16%EV -5.57%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.96%EV -6.01%E -2.74%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 06:48
BetAnything3.12I 32.05%NM 30.16%EV -5.57%E -1.78%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.96%EV -6.01%E -2.74%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 12:24
Coolbet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.87%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.54%EV -3.43%E -1.53%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.59%EV -3.47%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-23 15:19
Fanatics3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-16 07:00
BetUS3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 13:10
LowVig.ag3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 11:19
BetOnline.ag3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 11:19
Marathon Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.79%EV -6.44%E -2.95%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.12%EV -7.76%E -2.25%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 22:15
Bet Victor3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 12:35
Betway3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 07:24
DraftKings3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -7.69%E -2.52%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 10:20
Everygame3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -7.69%E -2.52%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-24 03:20
Betclic (FR)3.02I 33.11%NM 29.56%EV -8.59%E -2.85%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.19%EV -13.31%E -6.59%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-18 10:24
Ladbrokes (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.47%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 13:05
Coral3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.47%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 13:05
BetMGM3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.47%E -0.963%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 13:05
SportsBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 15:19
Betr (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 15:19
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 15:19
PointsBet (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.15%E -1.76%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 15:19
PlayUp3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 10:39
888sport3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-16 04:59
William Hill3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-16 04:59
Mr Green (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-16 04:59
888sport (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-16 05:00
Unibet (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -12.02%E -5.86%K -11.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-20 10:25
Bet Right2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -10.71%E -3.63%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-24 02:00
NetBet (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 29.88%EV -10.71%E -3.63%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.00%EV -12.02%E -5.86%K -11.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -12.85%E -3.95%K -5.71%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-23 09:04
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -12.23%E -4.22%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-23 15:20
Winamax (DE)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.23%E -4.22%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.46%EV -12.02%E -5.86%K -11.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -7.49%E -2.17%K -3.06%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 19:54
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -12.83%E -4.46%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -5.58%E -2.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 15:20
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -12.83%E -4.46%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 15:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -12.83%E -4.46%K -6.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -14.16%E -7.08%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -19.56%E -6.52%K -9.78%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-23 15:19
BoyleSports2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -15.25%E -5.45%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -7.73%E -3.59%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -8.83%E -2.60%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-16 04:44
Winamax (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.78%EV -15.25%E -5.45%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.10%EV -14.16%E -7.08%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -11.51%E -3.49%K -5.00%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-23 19:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-04-24 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%5.9%2026-04-23 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%5.9%2026-04-23 13:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%5.9%2026-04-23 13:29
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%7.2%2026-04-23 17:40