La escuela de los momios

AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Rotterdam

Inicio: 2026-02-22 15:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Predicción 47.66%2.10momio equitativo
EV -0.869%
Ventaja -0.418%
Kelly -0.805%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.08%47.63%47.44%50.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.721.941.942.0858.14%51.61%51.55%48.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sparta Rotterdam (Visitante)

Predicción 26.88%3.72momio equitativo
EV +7.52%
Ventaja +1.88%
Kelly +2.51%
Crecimiento +0.189%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.03%26.83%27.02%28.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.543.504.0032.26%28.25%28.57%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.46%3.93momio equitativo
EV -1.98%
Ventaja -0.514%
Kelly -0.695%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.73%25.54%25.54%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.613.603.8531.25%27.68%27.78%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.11%EV -7.54%E -3.89%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%EV +7.52%E +1.88%K +2.51%G +0.189%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -3.25%E -0.856%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-22 15:39
Svenska Spel1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%EV -7.54%E -3.89%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.54%EV +6.18%E +1.56%K +2.09%G +0.129%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.51%EV -3.25%E -0.856%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-22 15:40
ATG (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%EV -7.54%E -3.89%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.54%EV +6.18%E +1.56%K +2.09%G +0.129%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.51%EV -3.25%E -0.856%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-22 15:40
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -11.83%E -6.39%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV +4.84%E +1.24%K +1.67%G +0.081%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 14:55
Unibet (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.69%EV -8.97%E -4.70%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV +3.49%E +0.907%K +1.23%G +0.043%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-22 15:39
Unibet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.83%EV -9.45%E -4.97%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV +3.49%E +0.907%K +1.23%G +0.043%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 15:40
Casumo1.88I 53.19%NM 49.76%EV -10.40%E -5.53%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV +2.15%E +0.565%K +0.767%G +0.016%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -7.07%E -1.94%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 15:40
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 49.76%EV -10.40%E -5.53%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV +2.15%E +0.565%K +0.767%G +0.016%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -7.07%E -1.94%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 15:40
betPARX1.88I 53.19%NM 49.76%EV -10.40%E -5.53%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV +2.15%E +0.565%K +0.767%G +0.016%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -7.07%E -1.94%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 15:39
Grosvenor1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -10.88%E -5.82%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV +2.15%E +0.565%K +0.767%G +0.016%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 15:39
TABtouch1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -10.88%E -5.82%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV +2.15%E +0.565%K +0.767%G +0.016%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -11.83%E -6.39%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV +0.804%E +0.214%K +0.292%G +0.002%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-22 15:39
Pinnacle1.98I 50.51%NM 48.80%EV -5.63%E -2.85%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.04%EV -0.271%E -0.073%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.16%EV -2.23%E -0.582%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-22 15:40
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -8.97%E -4.70%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -0.540%E -0.146%K -0.200%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-22 14:54
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -9.45%E -4.97%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -0.540%E -0.146%K -0.200%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 15:39
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -9.45%E -4.97%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -0.540%E -0.146%K -0.200%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 15:40
LiveScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 49.75%EV -12.78%E -6.99%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -0.540%E -0.146%K -0.200%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -9.62%E -2.71%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-22 15:40
Virgin Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 49.75%EV -12.78%E -6.99%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -0.540%E -0.146%K -0.200%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -9.62%E -2.71%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-22 15:40
1xBet2.07I 48.31%NM 46.85%EV -1.35%E -0.650%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.65%EV -2.15%E -0.591%K -0.816%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.50%EV -6.82%E -1.86%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-22 15:40
Coolbet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -7.06%E -3.62%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -3.23%E -0.897%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -1.98%E -0.514%K -0.695%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-22 15:00
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -3.73%E -1.85%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.23%E -0.897%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-22 15:40
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -3.73%E -1.85%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.23%E -0.897%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-22 15:40
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -8.97%E -4.70%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -3.23%E -0.897%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 15:00
Betr (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -9.45%E -4.97%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -3.23%E -0.897%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 15:00
Codere (IT)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.33%EV -7.06%E -3.62%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -4.57%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -4.53%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 15:29
Bet Right1.91I 52.36%NM 48.68%EV -8.97%E -4.70%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -4.57%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 15:00
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 47.67%EV -4.68%E -2.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -3.25%E -0.856%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-22 15:39
Unibet (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.68%E -2.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-22 15:40
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -7.06%E -3.62%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -4.53%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-22 15:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -7.06%E -3.62%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 15:20
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -10.88%E -5.82%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -5.92%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -10.89%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-22 15:40
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 47.16%EV -4.68%E -2.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -7.26%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 15:40
Bovada2.02I 49.50%NM 46.58%EV -3.73%E -1.85%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -7.26%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-22 15:40
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -7.06%E -3.62%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -7.26%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -4.53%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 15:30
Marathon Bet1.99I 50.25%NM 46.89%EV -5.16%E -2.59%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -7.26%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -8.85%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 15:40
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -8.97%E -4.70%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -7.26%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.72%EV -9.62%E -2.71%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-22 15:40
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -2.30%E -1.12%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-22 15:39
BetUS2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -2.78%E -1.36%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 15:39
BetAnything2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -2.78%E -1.36%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 15:40
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -4.68%E -2.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -13.44%E -3.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-22 15:40
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -4.68%E -2.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -13.44%E -3.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-22 15:40
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -4.68%E -2.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -13.44%E -3.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-22 15:40
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -4.68%E -2.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -13.44%E -3.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-22 15:40
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -11.83%E -6.39%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.44%E -3.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-22 15:40
Betclic (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.24%EV -11.83%E -6.39%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.48%EV -9.41%E -2.79%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.28%EV -10.13%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-22 15:39
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.81%EV -0.869%E -0.418%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-22 15:40
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 45.81%EV -0.869%E -0.418%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-22 15:40
NetBet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 49.16%EV -15.64%E -8.84%K -20.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.98%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -10.89%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%14.9%2026-02-22 15:39
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -2.30%E -1.12%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -5.80%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 15:40
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -4.68%E -2.34%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.34%E -2.32%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-22 15:40
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -8.49%E -4.42%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -7.07%E -1.94%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-22 15:40
Parions Sport (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 47.46%EV -10.40%E -5.53%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.89%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-22 15:40
PMU (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 48.77%EV -18.03%E -10.48%K -25.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.42%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.81%EV -17.26%E -5.31%K -7.67%G +0.000%19.2%2026-02-22 15:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.84%EV -12.78%E -6.99%K -15.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%EV -12.64%E -3.89%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.79%EV -18.53%E -5.79%K -8.42%G +0.000%16.7%2026-02-22 15:40
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 45.08%EV -2.30%E -1.12%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -13.98%E -4.37%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.62%E -2.71%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-22 15:39
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 47.13%EV -11.35%E -6.10%K -13.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.83%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.04%EV -10.89%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%14.1%2026-02-22 15:39
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -7.06%E -3.62%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -16.67%E -5.38%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -10.89%E -3.11%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-22 15:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (2)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.12I 47.17%NM 46.74%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-02-22 15:40
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 46.64%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.59%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%2.1%2026-02-22 15:40