Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

AZ Alkmaar v SC Telstar

Inicio: 2026-09-20 12:30 UTC

Final: AZ Alkmaar 1–0 SC Telstar

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

AZ Alkmaar (Local)

Predicción 74.82%1.34momio equitativo
EV -3.49%
Ventaja -2.70%
Kelly -12.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.24%74.79%74.76%76.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.191.241.251.2984.03%80.37%80.00%77.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

SC Telstar (Visitante)

Predicción 10.22%9.79momio equitativo
EV +18.53%
Ventaja +1.60%
Kelly +1.75%
Crecimiento +0.324%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.24%10.17%10.27%11.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.759.359.2011.6012.90%10.70%10.87%8.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 14.97%6.68momio equitativo
EV +1.01%
Ventaja +0.150%
Kelly +0.176%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.25%15.04%14.97%16.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.506.166.206.7518.18%16.24%16.13%14.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: AZ Alkmaar (Local): 74.82%; SC Telstar (Visitante): 10.22%; Empate: 14.97%. Para SC Telstar (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 9.79. 14 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 11.60, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +18.53%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.88%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.04%G +0.000%11.60I 8.62%NM 8.24%EV +18.53%E +1.60%K +1.75%G +0.324%6.02I 16.61%NM 15.88%EV -9.91%E -1.65%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 12:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.85%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.04%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.80%EV +12.40%E +1.13%K +1.24%G +0.154%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.35%EV +1.01%E +0.150%K +0.176%G +0.002%3.3%2026-09-20 11:44
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +12.40%E +1.13%K +1.24%G +0.154%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-20 12:22
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.57%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.70%EV +12.40%E +1.13%K +1.24%G +0.154%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-20 12:22
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.11%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV +7.29%E +0.694%K +0.768%G +0.056%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 11:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.11%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV +7.29%E +0.694%K +0.768%G +0.056%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 11:44
NordicBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.42%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.45%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.00%EV +7.29%E +0.694%K +0.768%G +0.056%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.58%EV -14.70%E -2.58%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 12:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.55%EV -7.98%E -6.48%K -34.68%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV +7.29%E +0.694%K +0.768%G +0.056%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 12:24
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.36%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.04%G +0.000%10.41I 9.61%NM 9.00%EV +6.37%E +0.612%K +0.677%G +0.043%5.63I 17.76%NM 16.64%EV -15.75%E -2.80%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 12:07
Coolbet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV +2.18%E +0.218%K +0.243%G +0.005%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-20 11:39
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.74%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +2.18%E +0.218%K +0.243%G +0.005%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.79%EV -4.22%E -0.660%K -0.782%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 11:44
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV +2.18%E +0.218%K +0.243%G +0.005%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -13.95%E -2.43%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 12:09
SportsBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.98%E -6.48%K -34.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +2.18%E +0.218%K +0.243%G +0.005%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -10.21%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 11:59
Pinnacle🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.50%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.45%G +0.000%9.91I 10.09%NM 9.68%EV +1.26%E +0.127%K +0.142%G +0.002%6.47I 15.46%NM 14.82%EV -3.18%E -0.491%K -0.581%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 12:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.73%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.45%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.02%EV -1.90%E -0.198%K -0.221%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.25%EV +1.01%E +0.150%K +0.176%G +0.002%4.0%2026-09-20 12:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.73%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.45%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.02%EV -1.90%E -0.198%K -0.221%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.25%EV +1.01%E +0.150%K +0.176%G +0.002%4.0%2026-09-20 12:09
BetUS🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.73%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.45%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.02%EV -1.90%E -0.198%K -0.221%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.25%EV +1.01%E +0.150%K +0.176%G +0.002%4.0%2026-09-20 12:09
BetAnything🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.73%EV -4.98%E -3.92%K -18.45%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.02%EV -1.90%E -0.198%K -0.221%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.25%EV +1.01%E +0.150%K +0.176%G +0.002%4.0%2026-09-20 12:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -2.93%E -0.308%K -0.344%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 12:23
Fanatics🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -2.93%E -0.308%K -0.344%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 12:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -7.23%E -5.83%K -30.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -2.93%E -0.308%K -0.344%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -6.47%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 11:44
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -7.23%E -5.83%K -30.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -2.93%E -0.308%K -0.344%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -6.47%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 11:44
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -7.23%E -5.83%K -30.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -2.93%E -0.308%K -0.344%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -6.47%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 11:44
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.97%EV -7.23%E -5.83%K -30.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -2.93%E -0.308%K -0.344%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.24%EV -8.71%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 11:44
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.65%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -2.93%E -0.308%K -0.344%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -10.21%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 12:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.99%EV -7.23%E -5.83%K -30.11%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.89%EV -3.95%E -0.420%K -0.470%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.12%EV -7.96%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 12:05
Bovada🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.75%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.04%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.18%EV -5.48%E -0.593%K -0.664%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.07%EV -6.47%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 12:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.97%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.04%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.27%EV -5.99%E -0.651%K -0.731%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.76%EV -4.22%E -0.660%K -0.782%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 12:24
DraftKings🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.97%EV -5.73%E -4.55%K -22.04%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 12:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.69%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.94%EV -6.47%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 11:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.04%EV -7.22%E -1.16%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 12:04
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -10.21%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 12:03
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -7.23%E -5.83%K -30.11%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.25%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -10.21%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 12:04
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.14%EV -7.98%E -6.48%K -34.68%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.72%EV -13.20%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 11:45
TABtouch🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.30%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -13.20%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 11:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.30%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -13.20%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 11:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.30%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -13.20%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 11:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.30%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.07%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -13.20%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 11:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.46%EV -9.47%E -7.83%K -45.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.01%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.53%EV -13.20%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 11:44
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.99%EV -10.22%E -8.52%K -51.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -8.04%E -0.893%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -17.69%E -3.22%K -3.93%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 12:00
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.30%EV -3.49%E -2.70%K -12.02%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.95%EV -10.59%E -1.21%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 12:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.56%EV -10.97%E -9.22%K -57.73%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.14%EV -10.59%E -1.21%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.30%EV -13.20%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-20 12:15
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.21%EV -4.23%E -3.31%K -15.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.14%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 11:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.21%EV -4.23%E -3.31%K -15.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.14%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -2.73%E -0.420%K -0.496%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 12:19
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.39%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -13.14%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -13.20%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 12:04
Bet Right🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.93%EV -7.23%E -5.83%K -30.11%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -13.14%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.21%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 11:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -13.14%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -13.95%E -2.43%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 12:04
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -13.14%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -13.95%E -2.43%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -6.48%E -5.18%K -25.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -13.14%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -13.95%E -2.43%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 12:05
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.25%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV -13.14%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV -10.21%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-20 12:14
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -13.14%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -17.69%E -3.22%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 12:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.37%EV -10.22%E -8.52%K -51.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.50%EV -13.14%E -1.55%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.13%EV -11.71%E -1.98%K -2.39%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 12:23
Unibet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.03%EV -9.47%E -7.83%K -45.10%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 10.79%EV -15.19%E -1.83%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.18%EV -11.71%E -1.98%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 12:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.04%EV -7.98%E -6.48%K -34.68%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -18.25%E -2.28%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -6.47%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 12:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.93%EV -8.72%E -7.15%K -39.65%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.64%EV -20.81%E -2.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.43%EV -6.47%E -1.03%K -1.23%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 12:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.47%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.58%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%1.4%2026-09-20 12:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.47%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.58%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%1.4%2026-09-20 12:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.47%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.58%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%1.4%2026-09-20 12:15
Matchbook◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.47%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.58%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%1.4%2026-09-20 12:20
Smarkets◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.18%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.93%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.89%1.8%2026-09-20 12:15
Kalshi◎1.28I 78.13%NM 76.50%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.81%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.68%2.1%2026-09-20 12:15