Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tigres v Atlante FC

2026-08-22 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tigres (Local)

Prediction 67.91%1.47fair odd
EV -6.96%
Edge -5.08%
Kelly -18.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.36%67.91%67.62%69.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.331.351.3778.74%74.91%74.07%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlante FC (Visit)

Prediction 11.52%8.68fair odd
EV +1.40%
Edge +0.159%
Kelly +0.180%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 8.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.59%11.52%11.62%12.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.557.508.8014.81%13.25%13.33%11.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.57%4.86fair odd
EV +0.776%
Edge +0.158%
Kelly +0.199%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.17%20.57%20.76%21.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.604.674.9023.81%21.74%21.39%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tigres (Local): 67.91%; Atlante FC (Visit): 11.52%; Draw: 20.57%. For Atlante FC (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.68. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.80, producing a positive expected value of +1.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.00%EV -6.96%E -5.08%K -18.82%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV +1.40%E +0.159%K +0.180%G +0.003%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -10.54%E -2.42%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 03:14
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.00%EV -6.96%E -5.08%K -18.82%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV +1.40%E +0.159%K +0.180%G +0.003%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -10.54%E -2.42%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 03:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.23%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -7.82%E -0.977%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV +0.776%E +0.158%K +0.199%G +0.002%6.4%2026-08-12 01:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.08%EV -7.64%E -5.62%K -21.23%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.74%EV -7.82%E -0.977%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.17%EV +0.776%E +0.158%K +0.199%G +0.002%6.4%2026-08-12 01:34
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -8.32%E -6.16%K -23.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -2.31%E -0.486%K -0.616%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 01:35
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -8.32%E -6.16%K -23.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -2.31%E -0.486%K -0.616%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 01:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -8.32%E -6.16%K -23.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -2.31%E -0.486%K -0.616%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 01:35
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -8.32%E -6.16%K -23.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -2.31%E -0.486%K -0.616%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 01:34
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -8.32%E -6.16%K -23.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -2.31%E -0.486%K -0.616%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 01:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -8.32%E -6.16%K -23.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -2.31%E -0.486%K -0.616%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 01:34
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -8.32%E -6.16%K -23.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -2.31%E -0.486%K -0.616%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 01:34
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -9.68%E -7.28%K -29.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.69%EV -10.95%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-12 03:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.44%EV -11.72%E -9.01%K -39.05%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.69%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -13.62%E -3.24%K -4.26%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-12 03:13
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.77%EV -10.36%E -7.85%K -32.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -5.39%E -1.17%K -1.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-12 01:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.81%EV -11.72%E -9.01%K -39.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -7.45%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-12 01:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.81%EV -11.72%E -9.01%K -39.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -7.45%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-12 01:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.81%EV -11.72%E -9.01%K -39.05%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -7.45%E -1.66%K -2.13%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-12 01:34
PMU (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 67.71%EV -13.75%E -10.83%K -50.94%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.74%EV -22.22%E -3.29%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.54%EV -9.51%E -2.16%K -2.80%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-12 01:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.28I 78.13%NM 64.49%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.31%21.2%2026-08-12 05:55

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