Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tigres v Atlante FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 01:03 UTC

Final: Tigres 2–0 Atlante FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tigres (Local)

Prediction 60.61%1.65fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -5.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.33%60.70%60.56%62.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.511.511.6071.43%66.06%66.23%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlante FC (Visit)

Prediction 17.48%5.72fair odd
EV +4.88%
Edge +0.814%
Kelly +0.976%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.54%17.32%17.41%18.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.375.406.0021.05%18.61%18.52%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.91%4.56fair odd
EV +0.770%
Edge +0.167%
Kelly +0.214%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.84%21.99%22.03%23.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.144.104.6026.32%24.15%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tigres (Local): 60.61%; Atlante FC (Visit): 17.48%; Draw: 21.91%. For Atlante FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.72. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.07%EV -8.47%E -5.61%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV +4.88%E +0.814%K +0.976%G +0.048%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 00:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.07%EV -8.47%E -5.61%K -16.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV +4.88%E +0.814%K +0.976%G +0.048%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 00:40
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -6.66%E -4.32%K -12.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV +4.88%E +0.814%K +0.976%G +0.048%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 01:02
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.72%EV -9.69%E -6.50%K -19.77%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV +1.39%E +0.239%K +0.289%G +0.004%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 00:45
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.72%EV -9.69%E -6.50%K -19.77%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV +1.39%E +0.239%K +0.289%G +0.004%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 00:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.72%EV -9.69%E -6.50%K -19.77%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV +1.39%E +0.239%K +0.289%G +0.004%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 00:44
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.72%EV -9.69%E -6.50%K -19.77%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV +1.39%E +0.239%K +0.289%G +0.004%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 00:45
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.72%EV -9.69%E -6.50%K -19.77%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV +1.39%E +0.239%K +0.289%G +0.004%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 00:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.72%EV -9.69%E -6.50%K -19.77%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV +1.39%E +0.239%K +0.289%G +0.004%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 00:44
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.72%EV -9.69%E -6.50%K -19.77%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV +1.39%E +0.239%K +0.289%G +0.004%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 00:45
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.50%EV -12.11%E -8.35%K -26.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.92%EV -2.11%E -0.377%K -0.459%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%EV -13.47%E -3.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 00:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.47%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%EV -3.86%E -0.702%K -0.858%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%EV +0.770%E +0.167%K +0.214%G +0.002%3.6%2026-08-21 11:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.47%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.55%EV -3.86%E -0.702%K -0.858%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.98%EV +0.770%E +0.167%K +0.214%G +0.002%3.6%2026-08-21 11:34
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.23%EV -3.02%E -1.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.52%EV -3.86%E -0.702%K -0.858%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.25%EV -5.14%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-22 01:02
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.34%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.40%EV -3.86%E -0.702%K -0.858%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.26%EV -1.42%E -0.316%K -0.406%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-21 19:59
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.87%EV -8.47%E -5.61%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -3.86%E -0.702%K -0.858%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 00:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.45%EV -10.90%E -7.41%K -23.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -3.86%E -0.702%K -0.858%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 00:34
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -12.72%E -8.83%K -28.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -3.86%E -0.702%K -0.858%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-22 00:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.15%EV -12.11%E -8.35%K -26.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -3.86%E -0.702%K -0.858%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.73%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-22 00:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.15%EV -12.11%E -8.35%K -26.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -3.86%E -0.702%K -0.858%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.73%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-22 00:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -12.72%E -8.83%K -28.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -3.86%E -0.702%K -0.858%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-22 00:39
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.95%EV -4.23%E -2.68%K -7.30%G +0.000%5.44I 18.38%NM 17.70%EV -4.91%E -0.902%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.35%EV -1.20%E -0.266%K -0.342%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-22 00:59
GTbets🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.82%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.14%EV -5.08%E -0.936%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.05%EV -7.55%E -1.79%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 00:49
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.85%EV -5.44%E -3.49%K -9.72%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.58%EV -5.61%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 00:50
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.31%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.37%EV -5.61%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 00:54
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.89%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.19%EV -5.61%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -11.28%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-21 23:04
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.89%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.19%EV -5.61%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -11.28%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-21 23:14
Fliff🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.84%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.90%EV -5.61%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 01:02
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.44%EV -15.14%E -10.82%K -37.85%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.93%EV -5.61%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.63%EV -16.75%E -4.41%K -5.98%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-22 00:44
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.23%EV -3.62%E -2.28%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.32I 18.80%NM 18.00%EV -7.01%E -1.32%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.77%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-22 00:58
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.11%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -7.36%E -1.39%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -3.61%E -0.821%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 00:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.97%EV -7.87%E -5.18%K -15.13%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -7.36%E -1.39%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -5.80%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 00:59
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -8.23%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -1.42%E -0.316%K -0.406%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 00:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -8.23%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 00:50
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -8.23%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 00:59
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -8.23%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 00:59
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.43%EV -6.05%E -3.90%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -8.23%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 00:55
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.97%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -9.10%E -1.75%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -10.18%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 01:02
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.60%E -2.52%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 00:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.60%E -2.52%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.99%E -1.90%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 00:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.37%EV -8.47%E -5.61%K -16.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -12.60%E -2.52%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -13.47%E -3.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-22 01:02
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -12.60%E -2.52%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-22 00:09
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.78%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -16.10%E -3.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-22 00:45
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -16.10%E -3.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.37%E -3.09%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-22 00:55
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -16.10%E -3.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 00:55
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -9.08%E -6.05%K -18.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -16.10%E -3.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 00:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.58%EV -10.90%E -7.41%K -23.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.25%EV -16.10%E -3.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.17%EV -13.47%E -3.41%K -4.57%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-22 00:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.33%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.79%EV -16.97%E -3.57%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 00:58
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.33%EV -7.26%E -4.75%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.79%EV -16.97%E -3.57%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -14.56%E -3.73%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 00:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.60I 62.50%NM 61.77%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.75%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.48%1.2%2026-08-22 01:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 61.77%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.75%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.48%1.2%2026-08-22 01:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 61.77%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.75%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.48%1.2%2026-08-22 01:00
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 61.83%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.25%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.92%1.7%2026-08-22 01:00
Matchbook1.59I 62.89%NM 61.37%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.42%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.21%2.5%2026-08-22 01:00
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 61.11%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.47%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.41%2.9%2026-08-22 01:00