Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santos Laguna v Monterrey

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santos Laguna (Local)

Prediction 24.72%4.05fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -0.659%
Kelly -0.884%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.14%24.77%24.71%25.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.673.703.9429.85%27.26%27.03%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Monterrey (Visit)

Prediction 51.82%1.93fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.92%51.77%51.89%52.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.771.781.8560.61%56.38%56.18%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.46%4.26fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.348%
Kelly -0.456%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.33%23.46%23.41%25.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.853.854.2029.41%25.96%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santos Laguna (Local): 24.72%; Monterrey (Visit): 51.82%; Draw: 23.46%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.20, with an expected value of -1.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.94I 25.38%NM 24.14%EV -2.60%E -0.659%K -0.884%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.55%EV -6.21%E -3.43%K -7.67%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.31%EV -4.28%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 06:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.43%EV -3.59%E -0.920%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.34%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -3.81%E -0.928%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 22:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.43%EV -3.59%E -0.920%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.34%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -3.81%E -0.928%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 22:55
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -4.82%E -1.25%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.46%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -1.46%E -0.348%K -0.456%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 18:54
DraftKings🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -4.82%E -1.25%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.84%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -8.50%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 23:05
GTbets🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 24.57%EV -5.07%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.70%EV -7.25%E -4.05%K -9.17%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.73%EV -2.63%E -0.635%K -0.836%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 01:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -4.14%E -2.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.33%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-21 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -4.14%E -2.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.33%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-21 15:24
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -8.28%E -4.68%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -1.46%E -0.348%K -0.456%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 01:29
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 23:04
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.98%EV -9.32%E -5.33%K -12.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -3.81%E -0.928%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 01:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.34%EV -8.28%E -4.68%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.28%EV -6.62%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 11:34
Fanatics🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -10.85%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 01:39
Bovada🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.39%EV -8.80%E -5.00%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.34%EV -7.33%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 07:59
BetUS🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.39%EV -8.80%E -5.00%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.34%EV -7.33%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 13:05
Bet Victor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -6.06%E -1.59%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -9.32%E -5.33%K -12.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:31
1xBet🎯3.79I 26.39%NM 24.57%EV -6.31%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.03%EV -7.25%E -4.05%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.40%EV -6.62%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 11:34
PlayUp🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%EV -8.28%E -4.68%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 06:29
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.33%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 01:19
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.33%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 01:20
BetMGM🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.17%E -2.83%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -8.50%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 02:19
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.90%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 15:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.90%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.90%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 15:24
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.90%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 15:25
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.90%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 15:24
betPARX🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.90%EV -5.69%E -3.13%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 15:24
BetRivers🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.04%EV -6.21%E -3.43%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.99%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 15:25
Paddy Power🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -8.53%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -9.32%E -5.33%K -12.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 01:30
Bet Right🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -9.77%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.59%EV -7.77%E -4.36%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -7.33%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 18:55
TABtouch🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.07%EV -9.77%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.84%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -10.85%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-21 15:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -9.77%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -7.77%E -4.36%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.85%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-21 15:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -9.77%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.12%EV -7.77%E -4.36%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.85%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-21 15:25
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.00%E -3.06%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 06:30
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.00%E -3.06%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.02%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 11:44
Virgin Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -11.00%E -3.06%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.07%EV -8.80%E -5.00%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -12.02%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-21 15:25
Everygame🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -11.00%E -3.06%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.93%EV -11.91%E -7.01%K -17.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -12.02%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-23 13:38
Betclic (FR)🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 24.55%EV -11.50%E -3.21%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.70%EV -11.91%E -7.01%K -17.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.75%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-23 03:07
Unibet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.33%EV -12.24%E -3.45%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 52.34%EV -14.50%E -8.79%K -22.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.34%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-23 01:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 02:19
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -6.73%E -3.74%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 02:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.59%EV -10.87%E -6.32%K -15.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.05%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 02:14
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -10.36%E -5.99%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -10.85%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-23 23:04
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -9.32%E -5.33%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-23 20:34
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -9.32%E -5.33%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-23 20:38
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -9.32%E -5.33%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-23 20:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -9.32%E -5.33%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-23 20:35
LeoVegas🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.04%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 50.95%EV -10.87%E -6.32%K -15.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.01%EV -14.36%E -3.94%K -5.42%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-21 15:24
PMU (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.04%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 50.95%EV -10.87%E -6.32%K -15.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.01%EV -14.36%E -3.94%K -5.42%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-21 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.68%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.92%EV -10.36%E -5.99%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -20.23%E -5.95%K -8.43%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-23 23:04
NetBet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 51.99%EV -14.50%E -8.79%K -22.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.50%EV -14.36%E -3.94%K -5.42%G +0.000%16.6%2026-04-23 19:40
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.68%EV -15.95%E -4.69%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.35%EV -11.91%E -7.01%K -17.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.97%EV -10.85%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-24 03:00
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 25.33%EV -17.18%E -5.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.11%EV -13.98%E -8.42%K -21.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-23 02:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.38%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.86%4.9%2026-04-24 03:50
Matchbook3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%6.8%2026-04-23 23:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%1.71I 58.48%NM 51.10%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.94%14.4%2026-04-23 23:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%1.71I 58.48%NM 51.10%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.94%14.4%2026-04-23 23:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 24.89%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.24%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.87%14.8%2026-04-23 23:05
Smarkets3.40I 29.41%NM 25.19%1.69I 59.17%NM 50.68%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.13%16.8%2026-04-23 01:40