Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Santos Laguna v Atlas

Inicio: 2026-04-19 23:00 UTC

Final: Santos Laguna 0–1 Atlas

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Santos Laguna (Local)

Predicción 36.16%2.77momio equitativo
EV -1.64%
Ventaja -0.604%
Kelly -0.955%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.00%36.21%36.14%37.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.372.512.502.7242.19%39.76%40.00%36.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlas (Visitante)

Predicción 37.01%2.70momio equitativo
EV -2.66%
Ventaja -1.01%
Kelly -1.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.49%36.98%37.00%38.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.502.502.6344.44%40.07%40.00%38.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.83%3.73momio equitativo
EV -1.81%
Ventaja -0.495%
Kelly -0.681%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.92%26.80%26.85%29.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.403.403.6634.72%29.43%29.41%27.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Santos Laguna (Local): 36.16%; Atlas (Visitante): 37.01%; Empate: 26.83%. Para Santos Laguna (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.77. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.72, con un valor esperado de -1.64%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.60%EV -1.64%E -0.604%K -0.955%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.82%EV -2.66%E -1.01%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.59%EV -5.84%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-19 22:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.05%EV -3.09%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.88%EV -3.03%E -1.16%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.07%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-19 22:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.05%EV -3.09%E -1.15%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.88%EV -3.03%E -1.16%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.07%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-19 22:10
1xBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.96%EV -3.45%E -1.29%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.80%EV -5.99%E -2.36%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.23%EV -1.81%E -0.495%K -0.681%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-19 22:45
GTbets🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.76%EV -4.54%E -1.72%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -5.62%E -2.20%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.21%EV -6.91%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-19 21:25
Coolbet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.32%EV -5.26%E -2.01%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -4.51%E -1.75%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.76%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-19 22:00
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.62%E -2.20%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 22:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 21:35
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 22:34
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.68%EV -7.10%E -2.83%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -11.47%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 22:38
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -5.98%E -2.30%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.68%EV -7.10%E -2.83%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -11.47%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 22:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 35.78%EV -6.34%E -2.45%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.36%EV -8.21%E -3.31%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 18:45
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.08%EV -6.70%E -2.60%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.94%EV -6.73%E -2.67%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 22:20
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.08%EV -6.70%E -2.60%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.94%EV -6.73%E -2.67%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 22:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -7.79%E -3.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.94%EV -2.66%E -1.01%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 22:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -7.79%E -3.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.94%EV -2.66%E -1.01%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 22:25
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -7.79%E -3.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -3.77%E -1.45%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -4.76%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 08:05
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.79%E -3.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 10:40
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.79%E -3.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 22:20
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -7.79%E -3.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 22:40
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -7.79%E -3.05%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -12.81%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 22:35
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.77%E -1.45%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.77%E -1.45%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.77%E -1.45%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 22:25
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.77%E -1.45%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 22:25
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.77%E -1.45%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 22:25
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -3.77%E -1.45%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.45%E -2.16%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 22:25
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -3.77%E -1.45%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 22:49
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -5.62%E -2.20%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 22:25
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -5.62%E -2.20%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 22:25
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 16:54
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 22:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 21:40
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -11.47%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 22:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -9.60%E -3.84%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.89%EV -16.72%E -7.43%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.12%EV -10.13%E -3.02%K -4.31%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-19 22:31
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.34%EV -10.32%E -4.16%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.10%EV -14.87%E -6.47%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -11.47%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-19 22:34
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.10%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-19 04:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.88%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.14%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.97%EV -10.13%E -3.02%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-19 22:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.88%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.14%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.97%EV -10.13%E -3.02%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-19 22:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 10:40
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 10:40
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -12.81%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-19 22:40
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.04%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.79%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -12.81%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-19 22:50
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.04%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.79%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -12.81%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-19 22:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.04%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.79%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -12.81%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-19 22:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.04%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.79%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -12.81%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-19 22:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -11.41%E -4.66%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.09%EV -14.87%E -6.47%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.15%EV -10.13%E -3.02%K -4.31%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-19 21:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.07%EV -12.13%E -4.99%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.04%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -10.13%E -3.02%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-19 22:25
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -13.21%E -5.51%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -7.47%E -2.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-19 04:35
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -13.21%E -5.51%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -11.17%E -4.65%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -8.79%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-19 03:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.19%EV -13.21%E -5.51%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.49%EV -11.91%E -5.00%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.32%EV -22.74%E -7.89%K -12.09%G +0.000%18.4%2026-04-19 22:40
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.99%EV -13.94%E -5.86%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.93%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -12.81%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-19 22:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.99%EV -13.94%E -5.86%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.93%EV -9.32%E -3.80%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -12.81%E -3.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-19 22:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 36.38%EV -14.30%E -6.03%K -10.44%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.68%EV -13.02%E -5.54%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.94%EV -14.15%E -4.42%K -6.43%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-19 22:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.29%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.83%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-04-19 22:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.29%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.83%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-04-19 22:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.74I 36.50%NM 35.93%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.34%1.6%2026-04-19 22:55
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 35.93%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.34%1.6%2026-04-19 22:55
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-04-19 22:15
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.71%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.12%2.4%2026-04-19 22:50