Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Querétaro v Tigres

Inicio: 2026-08-01 23:00 UTC

Final: Querétaro 3–2 Tigres

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Querétaro (Local)

Predicción 30.53%3.28momio equitativo
EV +4.10%
Ventaja +1.20%
Kelly +1.70%
Crecimiento +0.070%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.41

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.15%30.50%30.48%32.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.043.003.4134.72%32.86%33.33%29.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tigres (Visitante)

Predicción 41.10%2.43momio equitativo
EV -3.84%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -2.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.12%41.22%41.05%44.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.202.202.3450.00%45.38%45.45%42.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.38%3.52momio equitativo
EV +2.16%
Ventaja +0.599%
Kelly +0.830%
Crecimiento +0.018%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.36%28.27%28.46%29.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.333.353.6033.33%30.07%29.85%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Querétaro (Local): 30.53%; Tigres (Visitante): 41.10%; Empate: 28.38%. Para Querétaro (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.28. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.41, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.10%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.41I 29.33%NM 28.15%EV +4.10%E +1.20%K +1.70%G +0.070%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.67%EV -7.54%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.18%EV -6.64%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-01 22:54
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -0.785%E -0.241%K -0.349%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -11.65%E -5.42%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV +2.16%E +0.599%K +0.830%G +0.018%5.1%2026-08-01 22:39
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -0.785%E -0.241%K -0.349%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -11.65%E -5.42%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV +2.16%E +0.599%K +0.830%G +0.018%5.1%2026-08-01 22:40
Pinnacle🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.86%EV -1.09%E -0.336%K -0.487%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -3.84%E -1.64%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.79%EV -4.65%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-01 22:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.83%EV -1.09%E -0.336%K -0.487%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.31%EV -3.84%E -1.64%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-01 22:54
BetOnline.ag🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.83%EV -1.09%E -0.336%K -0.487%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.31%EV -3.84%E -1.64%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.86%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-01 22:54
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -2.31%E -0.722%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -7.54%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 22:54
GTbets🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.12%EV -3.53%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.03%EV -4.66%E -2.01%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 22:34
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.84%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -0.680%E -0.194%K -0.272%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 22:40
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.84%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -0.680%E -0.194%K -0.272%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 22:40
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.84%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -0.680%E -0.194%K -0.272%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 22:39
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.84%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -0.680%E -0.194%K -0.272%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 22:39
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.84%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -0.680%E -0.194%K -0.272%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 22:40
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.84%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -0.680%E -0.194%K -0.272%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 22:39
betPARX🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -3.84%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.12%EV -13.70%E -6.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -0.680%E -0.194%K -0.272%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 22:39
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -3.84%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.35%EV -14.52%E -6.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -0.680%E -0.194%K -0.272%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-01 22:39
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.36%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 22:35
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.36%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.35%EV -7.95%E -3.55%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.77%EV -8.63%E -2.68%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 22:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -5.36%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.22%EV -15.34%E -7.45%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -2.10%E -0.608%K -0.857%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-01 22:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -5.36%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.22%EV -15.34%E -7.45%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -2.10%E -0.608%K -0.857%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-01 22:40
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.89%E -2.26%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 22:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -6.89%E -2.26%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.08%EV -16.17%E -7.92%K -15.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-01 22:39
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 22:39
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 18:49
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.54%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 22:44
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.54%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 22:44
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.54%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.52%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 20:15
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -7.54%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-01 22:39
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 20:40
Everygame🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -7.54%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -10.61%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-01 22:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -8.42%E -2.81%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%EV -17.81%E -8.90%K -17.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -4.94%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-01 22:39
Betsson🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.24%EV -9.03%E -3.03%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -4.66%E -2.01%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 22:54
NordicBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.24%EV -9.03%E -3.03%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -4.66%E -2.01%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 22:54
BetUS🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -9.94%E -3.37%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.19%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV +0.739%E +0.208%K +0.290%G +0.002%5.5%2026-08-01 21:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -9.94%E -3.37%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -7.54%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 22:39
Fliff🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -9.94%E -3.37%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-01 22:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 30.46%EV -10.55%E -3.60%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.57%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.98%EV -12.60%E -4.09%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-01 22:33
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -11.47%E -3.95%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -5.48%E -2.38%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-01 22:55
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -11.47%E -3.95%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.54%E -3.35%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-01 22:50
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -11.47%E -3.95%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -14.87%E -4.96%K -7.43%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-01 22:35
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -11.47%E -3.95%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -14.87%E -4.96%K -7.43%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-01 22:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -11.47%E -3.95%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -14.87%E -4.96%K -7.43%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-01 22:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -11.47%E -3.95%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -14.87%E -4.96%K -7.43%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-01 22:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.99%EV -11.47%E -3.95%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.02%EV -12.88%E -6.07%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.99%EV -14.87%E -4.96%K -7.43%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-01 22:54
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -12.08%E -4.19%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-01 22:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -12.08%E -4.19%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-01 22:45
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.08%E -4.19%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.19%E -2.87%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 22:35
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.08%E -4.19%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.59%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.19%E -2.87%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 18:20
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -12.08%E -4.19%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -11.65%E -5.42%K -10.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -6.36%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-01 20:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-08-01 22:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-08-01 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.78%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%0.6%2026-08-01 22:55
Matchbook3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%0.9%2026-08-01 22:55
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 30.70%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.63%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.67%1.8%2026-08-01 22:55
Kalshi3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-08-01 22:55