The School of Odds
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Querétaro v Cruz Azul

2026-10-26 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Querétaro (Local)

Prediction 28.64%3.49fair odd
EV +3.09%
Edge +0.857%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.90%28.56%28.68%30.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.253.273.6034.48%30.80%30.53%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cruz Azul (Visit)

Prediction 45.61%2.19fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -3.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.18%45.66%45.61%47.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.971.982.1055.25%50.74%50.38%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.76%3.88fair odd
EV -0.840%
Edge -0.218%
Kelly -0.295%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.71%25.77%25.72%27.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.533.563.8530.77%28.31%28.09%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Querétaro (Local): 28.64%; Cruz Azul (Visit): 45.61%; Draw: 25.76%. For Querétaro (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.49. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.60, producing a positive expected value of +3.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%EV +3.09%E +0.857%K +1.19%G +0.037%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%EV -7.87%E -3.90%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.15%EV -0.840%E -0.218%K -0.295%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-19 12:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%EV +3.09%E +0.857%K +1.19%G +0.037%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%EV -7.87%E -3.90%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.15%EV -0.840%E -0.218%K -0.295%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-19 12:29
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -2.64%E -0.777%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.41%EV -11.52%E -5.94%K -12.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-19 12:29
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -2.64%E -0.777%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.53%EV -11.97%E -6.20%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-19 12:30
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -2.64%E -0.777%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.53%EV -11.97%E -6.20%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-19 12:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -2.64%E -0.777%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.53%EV -11.97%E -6.20%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-19 12:30
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -2.64%E -0.777%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.53%EV -11.97%E -6.20%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-19 12:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -2.64%E -0.777%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.53%EV -11.97%E -6.20%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-19 12:30
betPARX🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -2.64%E -0.777%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.53%EV -11.97%E -6.20%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-19 12:30
1xBet🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 27.90%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.08%EV -8.33%E -4.14%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.02%EV -8.31%E -2.33%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-19 15:35
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -2.13%E -0.560%K -0.760%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-19 14:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.25%EV -9.24%E -4.64%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 25.85%EV -8.31%E -2.33%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 14:54
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.20%EV -13.34%E -7.02%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -9.85%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-19 12:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.20%EV -13.34%E -7.02%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.62%EV -9.85%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-19 12:30
TABtouch🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.33%EV -13.80%E -7.30%K -15.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -9.85%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-19 12:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -6.94%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.09%EV -14.25%E -7.58%K -16.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%EV -11.14%E -3.23%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-19 12:30
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -8.37%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -4.22%E -2.01%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.37%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.85%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 13:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 28.41%EV -9.23%E -2.91%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.49%EV -9.69%E -4.90%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.10%EV -11.14%E -3.23%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-19 13:20
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -9.80%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.99%EV -5.13%E -2.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -4.70%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-19 17:00
LeoVegas🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV -9.80%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.08%EV -7.87%E -3.90%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.85%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-19 13:19
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.17%EV -9.80%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 47.28%EV -17.45%E -9.64%K -21.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.55%EV -13.72%E -4.09%K -5.84%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-19 12:30
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -16.29%E -5.01%K -7.24%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-19 14:20
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -16.29%E -5.01%K -7.24%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-19 14:18
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -16.29%E -5.01%K -7.24%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-19 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -16.29%E -5.01%K -7.24%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-19 14:20
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -14.09%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-19 16:59
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -14.09%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.85%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-19 16:59
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -14.09%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -11.06%E -5.67%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -7.28%E -2.02%K -2.80%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-19 14:35
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.71%EV -16.96%E -5.85%K -8.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.18%EV -11.06%E -5.67%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.11%EV -15.01%E -4.55%K -6.52%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-19 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 28.41%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.99%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%9.0%2026-10-19 19:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-19 16:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-19 16:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-19 16:15