The School of Odds
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Querétaro v Cruz Azul

Kickoff: 2026-10-26 01:00 UTC

Final: Querétaro 1–3 Cruz Azul

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Querétaro (Local)

Prediction 26.30%3.80fair odd
EV +0.746%
Edge +0.195%
Kelly +0.264%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.66%26.24%26.24%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.503.503.8331.25%28.56%28.57%26.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cruz Azul (Visit)

Prediction 48.23%2.07fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.09%48.33%48.28%50.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.911.922.0255.56%52.37%52.08%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.47%3.93fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.575%
Kelly -0.778%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.66%25.43%25.48%26.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.593.603.8430.30%27.88%27.78%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Querétaro (Local): 26.30%; Cruz Azul (Visit): 48.23%; Draw: 25.47%. For Querétaro (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.746%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV +0.746%E +0.195%K +0.264%G +0.002%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.97%EV -7.40%E -3.85%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.98%EV -2.21%E -0.575%K -0.778%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-26 00:55
BetUS🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -0.043%E -0.011%K -0.015%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.29%EV -5.47%E -2.79%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.29%EV -2.72%E -0.711%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-26 00:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -0.043%E -0.011%K -0.015%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.29%EV -5.47%E -2.79%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.29%EV -2.72%E -0.711%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-26 00:35
LowVig.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -0.043%E -0.011%K -0.015%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.29%EV -5.47%E -2.79%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.29%EV -2.72%E -0.711%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-26 00:35
Pinnacle🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -0.043%E -0.011%K -0.015%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.03%EV -4.99%E -2.53%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.55%EV -3.74%E -0.988%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-26 00:45
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -2.67%E -0.723%K -0.990%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -13.19%E -7.33%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-26 00:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.54%EV -3.99%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.96%EV -2.58%E -1.28%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.50%EV -3.23%E -0.849%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-26 00:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.54%EV -3.99%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.96%EV -2.58%E -1.28%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.50%EV -3.23%E -0.849%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-26 00:45
Coolbet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.99%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.13%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.76%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-25 13:24
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-26 00:45
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-26 00:25
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-26 00:45
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.30%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-26 00:45
GTbets🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -6.62%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.85%EV -8.07%E -2.23%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-22 07:25
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.62%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.21%EV -7.40%E -3.85%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 00:55
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.62%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.21%EV -7.40%E -3.85%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 00:55
Bet Right🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -6.62%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.04%EV -9.81%E -5.25%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -7.05%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-26 00:45
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -3.23%E -0.849%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 04:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-25 18:45
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -4.50%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-26 00:55
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -4.50%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-26 00:53
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.24%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-26 00:21
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.44%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.20%EV -7.40%E -3.85%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -7.05%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-26 00:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.43%EV -8.36%E -4.40%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.28%EV -7.30%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 03:15
Fliff🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -9.81%E -5.25%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-26 00:55
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -9.81%E -5.25%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 00:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -9.81%E -5.25%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-26 00:45
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -7.93%E -2.27%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -11.74%E -6.42%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-26 00:45
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -9.25%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.42%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-26 00:45
BetRivers🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -9.25%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-26 00:44
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -9.25%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-26 00:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -9.25%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-26 00:45
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -9.25%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-26 00:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -9.25%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-26 00:45
betPARX🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -9.25%E -2.68%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-26 00:45
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -10.78%E -5.83%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-26 00:32
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -10.78%E -5.83%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.87%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-26 00:21
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.78%E -5.83%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -15.96%E -4.84%K -6.94%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-26 00:55
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.78%E -5.83%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -15.96%E -4.84%K -6.94%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-26 00:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.78%E -5.83%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -15.96%E -4.84%K -6.94%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-26 00:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -10.56%E -3.11%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.78%E -5.83%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -15.96%E -4.84%K -6.94%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-26 00:55
LeoVegas🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -11.88%E -3.55%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.09%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-26 00:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -11.88%E -3.55%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.22%EV -8.36%E -4.40%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-26 00:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -11.88%E -3.55%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.22%EV -8.36%E -4.40%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-26 00:45
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.71%EV -11.88%E -3.55%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.35%EV -8.85%E -4.68%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.94%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-26 00:45
NetBet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.34%EV -11.88%E -3.55%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.70%EV -10.78%E -5.83%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.96%EV -13.41%E -3.95%K -5.59%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-26 00:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -13.20%E -4.00%K -5.74%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.11%EV -9.33%E -4.96%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.41%E -3.95%K -5.59%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-26 00:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 26.75%EV -13.72%E -4.18%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.68%EV -11.26%E -6.12%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.58%EV -12.65%E -3.69%K -5.21%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-26 00:30
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -15.83%E -4.95%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.53%EV -9.81%E -5.25%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-23 07:00
PMU (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.82%EV -15.83%E -4.95%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.16%EV -12.22%E -6.72%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.01%EV -15.96%E -4.84%K -6.94%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-26 00:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-10-26 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-10-26 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-10-26 00:55
Matchbook◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.81%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-10-26 00:45
Smarkets◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%1.0%2026-10-26 00:45
Kalshi◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.04%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48%1.9%2026-10-26 00:55

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