The School of Odds

Pumas v Querétaro

2026-08-16 18:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Pumas (Local)

Prediction 58.06%1.72fair odd
EV -4.78%
Edge -2.91%
Kelly -7.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.80%57.77%58.06%59.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.491.581.601.6467.11%63.14%62.50%60.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Querétaro (Visit)

Prediction 18.81%5.32fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -0.795%
Kelly -0.989%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.44%18.87%18.81%19.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.334.764.755.1023.09%20.99%21.05%19.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.12%4.32fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -0.685%
Kelly -0.899%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%23.36%23.12%24.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.843.904.2027.78%26.04%25.64%23.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.64I 60.98%NM 58.19%EV -4.78%E -2.91%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.94%E -1.19%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -2.88%E -0.685%K -0.899%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 11:00
1xBet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.52%EV -5.94%E -3.67%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.83%EV -6.88%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.65%EV -8.89%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 11:35
SportsBet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -5.94%E -1.19%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -5.19%E -1.27%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 11:00
Marathon Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.93%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -5.94%E -1.19%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.53%EV -8.89%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 11:35
888sport1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -13.46%E -2.93%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -16.75%E -4.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-26 11:31
William Hill1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -13.46%E -2.93%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -16.75%E -4.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-26 11:30
888sport (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -13.46%E -2.93%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -16.75%E -4.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-26 11:30
Mr Green (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -13.46%E -2.93%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -16.75%E -4.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-26 11:31
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 59.16%EV -7.68%E -4.83%K -13.02%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -4.05%E -0.795%K -0.989%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -2.88%E -0.685%K -0.899%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 11:04
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -10.64%E -2.24%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -7.50%E -1.88%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 11:03
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 58.01%EV -10.00%E -6.45%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.93%EV -10.64%E -2.24%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06%EV -9.81%E -2.52%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 11:00
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 56.23%EV -11.16%E -7.30%K -21.06%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.87%EV -18.54%E -4.28%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -16.75%E -4.65%K -6.44%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-26 11:05
Betclic (FR)1.49I 67.11%NM 57.85%EV -13.49%E -9.05%K -27.52%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.54%EV -12.52%E -2.69%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.61%EV -15.60%E -4.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-26 10:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.