The School of Odds
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Puebla v Atlante FC

2026-09-19 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Puebla (Local)

Prediction 44.71%2.24fair odd
EV -7.00%
Edge -3.36%
Kelly -6.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.61%44.71%44.71%45.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.032.052.0852.08%49.30%48.78%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlante FC (Visit)

Prediction 29.10%3.44fair odd
EV -5.43%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.86%29.10%29.10%29.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.133.153.2533.90%31.93%31.75%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.05%26.19%26.19%26.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.503.6030.77%28.87%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Puebla (Local): 44.71%; Atlante FC (Visit): 29.10%; Draw: 26.19%. For Atlante FC (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.25, with an expected value of -5.43%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -7.00%E -3.36%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -5.43%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.72%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -7.00%E -3.36%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -5.43%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.72%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.34%E -4.07%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.34%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.34%E -4.07%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.34%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.34%E -4.07%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.34%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.34%E -4.07%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.34%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.34%E -4.07%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.34%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.34%E -4.07%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.34%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.34%E -4.07%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.34%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.34%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.57%E -5.29%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.57%E -5.29%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -10.57%E -5.29%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.76%EV -11.92%E -6.05%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.91%EV -11.25%E -3.69%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.32%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-12 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 44.61%EV -14.15%E -7.37%K -15.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.03%EV -14.16%E -4.80%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.35%EV -14.89%E -4.58%K -6.62%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 38.55%3.12I 32.05%NM 25.21%2.17I 46.08%NM 36.24%27.2%2026-09-12 19:30