Language:English
Pachuca v Pumas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pachuca (Local)
Prediction 43.77%2.28fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.06%43.77%43.59%45.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.2050.00%47.72%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pumas (Visit)
Prediction 29.10%3.44fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -0.843%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.05%29.08%29.14%29.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.203.3433.33%31.71%31.30%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.644%
Kelly -0.891%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.88%27.15%27.27%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.383.403.6032.26%29.59%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pachuca (Local): 43.77%; Pumas (Visit): 29.10%; Draw: 27.13%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -2.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.25%EV -3.71%E -1.69%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.10%EV -4.85%E -1.48%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.66%EV -6.66%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.10%EV -5.46%E -2.53%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.19%EV -7.18%E -2.25%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 27.71%EV -8.83%E -2.63%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -5.90%E -2.74%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-11 15:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -5.90%E -2.74%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -9.10%E -2.72%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-11 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.29%EV -6.33%E -2.96%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.13%EV -7.47%E -2.35%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 27.57%EV -8.83%E -2.63%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.96%EV -6.33%E -2.96%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.35%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -10.46%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-11 17:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.98%EV -6.77%E -3.18%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.05%EV -2.82%E -0.843%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -9.10%E -2.72%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-11 15:22 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.82%EV -7.21%E -3.40%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%EV -3.98%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -2.32%E -0.644%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 16:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -8.09%E -3.85%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -3.98%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.32%E -0.644%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 15:47 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.09%E -3.85%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-11 16:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -8.09%E -3.85%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -15.88%E -5.12%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -8.09%E -3.85%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -15.88%E -5.12%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -8.09%E -3.85%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -15.88%E -5.12%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-11 13:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -8.09%E -3.85%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -15.88%E -5.12%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-11 13:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -8.96%E -4.31%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -3.67%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 15:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.72%EV -8.96%E -4.31%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -3.67%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 15:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -10.27%E -5.01%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.44%E -1.67%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -2.32%E -0.644%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-11 15:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -10.27%E -5.01%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-11 15:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.27%E -5.01%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -7.74%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-11 15:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -12.46%E -6.23%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -6.89%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -5.03%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-11 15:46 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -12.46%E -6.23%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.80%E -3.16%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -7.74%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-11 15:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -12.46%E -6.23%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -12.71%E -4.24%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -15.88%E -5.12%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-05-11 15:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.43% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.44% | 5.6% | 2026-05-11 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40% | 8.0% | 2026-05-11 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40% | 8.0% | 2026-05-11 15:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.10% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40% | 8.0% | 2026-05-11 15:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.16% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38% | 9.8% | 2026-05-11 14:34 |