Language:English
Pachuca v Necaxa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pachuca (Local)
Prediction 55.41%1.80fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.45%55.38%55.42%57.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.651.651.7566.23%60.64%60.61%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Necaxa (Visit)
Prediction 20.78%4.81fair odd
EV +1.82%
Edge +0.371%
Kelly +0.466%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.18%20.77%20.86%22.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.494.534.9025.00%22.26%22.10%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.81%4.20fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.578%
Kelly -0.764%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.45%23.86%23.72%25.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.843.844.1027.78%26.03%26.01%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pachuca (Local): 55.41%; Necaxa (Visit): 20.78%; Draw: 23.81%. For Necaxa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.81. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.82%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.32%EV -9.13%E -5.57%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.18%EV +1.82%E +0.371%K +0.466%G +0.008% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.32%EV -9.13%E -5.57%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.18%EV +1.82%E +0.371%K +0.466%G +0.008% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 22:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.42%EV -3.04%E -1.73%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.84%EV -0.259%E -0.054%K -0.068%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -11.89%E -3.21%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 13:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -10.79%E -6.70%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -1.30%E -0.273%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -10.79%E -6.70%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -1.30%E -0.273%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -10.79%E -6.70%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -1.30%E -0.273%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -10.79%E -6.70%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -1.30%E -0.273%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 22:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -10.79%E -6.70%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -1.30%E -0.273%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 22:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -10.79%E -6.70%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -1.30%E -0.273%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -10.79%E -6.70%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -1.30%E -0.273%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -3.38%E -0.726%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -14.27%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-11 22:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -3.38%E -0.726%K -0.925%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -14.27%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-11 22:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.52%EV -3.59%E -2.06%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.91%EV -4.00%E -0.866%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.56%EV -2.37%E -0.578%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-11 22:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.41%EV -3.59%E -2.06%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -4.41%E -0.960%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.63%EV -2.84%E -0.697%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 22:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.41%EV -3.59%E -2.06%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -4.41%E -0.960%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.63%EV -2.84%E -0.697%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 22:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.31%EV -8.02%E -4.83%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -4.41%E -0.960%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 21:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.54%EV -11.35%E -7.09%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -4.41%E -0.960%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -2.37%E -0.578%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-11 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.06%EV -10.79%E -6.70%K -17.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -4.41%E -0.960%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 21:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.66%EV -12.46%E -7.88%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.46%EV -4.41%E -0.960%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.87%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.66%EV -12.46%E -7.88%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.46%EV -4.41%E -0.960%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.87%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-11 22:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.82%EV -13.01%E -8.29%K -22.82%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -4.41%E -0.960%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-11 22:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.98%EV -13.56%E -8.69%K -24.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -4.41%E -0.960%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.58%EV -6.36%E -3.76%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.64%EV -5.45%E -1.20%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -5.94%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 21:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.97%EV -7.47%E -4.47%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.54%EV -5.45%E -1.20%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.49%EV -5.23%E -1.31%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 12:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -5.25%E -3.07%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -6.49%E -1.44%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 21:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -6.49%E -1.44%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 04:31 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.47%E -4.47%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.49%E -1.44%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-11 22:53 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.47%E -4.47%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.49%E -1.44%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-11 22:52 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -6.36%E -3.76%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.49%E -1.44%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-11 17:23 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -6.91%E -4.12%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -6.49%E -1.44%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-11 22:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.52%EV -8.02%E -4.83%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -6.49%E -1.44%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.00%EV -8.56%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-05 13:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -6.91%E -4.12%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 20.65%EV -6.70%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.15%EV -8.56%E -2.23%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-05 13:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -7.47%E -4.47%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.57%E -1.95%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 08:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.73%EV -10.24%E -6.32%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -8.57%E -1.95%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-11 21:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.73%EV -10.24%E -6.32%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -8.57%E -1.95%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-11 22:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 56.73%EV -16.33%E -10.82%K -32.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.47%EV -8.57%E -1.95%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.80%EV -14.27%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.02%EV -5.81%E -3.42%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.60%EV -10.03%E -2.32%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 11:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -5.25%E -3.07%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -10.65%E -2.48%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -2.37%E -0.578%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.73%EV -6.91%E -4.12%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -10.65%E -2.48%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -8.32%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 10:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.55%EV -12.46%E -7.88%K -21.47%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.41%EV -10.65%E -2.48%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -13.08%E -3.58%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-11 12:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.26%EV -7.47%E -4.47%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -12.73%E -3.03%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -10.70%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-10 23:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -7.47%E -4.47%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -12.73%E -3.03%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.27%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-11 17:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 54.76%EV -11.35%E -7.09%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.11%EV -13.77%E -3.32%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 24.13%EV -13.56%E -3.74%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.61%EV -10.24%E -6.32%K -16.51%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -16.88%E -4.22%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-11 12:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.45%EV -8.58%E -5.20%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -16.88%E -4.22%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -14.27%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-11 20:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.45%EV -8.58%E -5.20%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -16.88%E -4.22%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -14.27%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.45%EV -8.58%E -5.20%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -16.88%E -4.22%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -14.27%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-11 20:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.45%EV -8.58%E -5.20%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -16.88%E -4.22%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -14.27%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.60% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.75% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 0.4% | 2026-10-11 22:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.60% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.75% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64% | 0.4% | 2026-10-11 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.74% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.74% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 22:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.69% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07% | 0.8% | 2026-10-11 22:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48% | 2.1% | 2026-10-11 20:10 |