L’École des cotes

Necaxa v Atlante FC

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-17 01:00 UTC

Score final : Necaxa 2–1 Atlante FC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

47 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Necaxa (Local)

Prévision 49.60%2.02cote équitable
EV -2.28%
Avantage -1.16%
Kelly -2.35%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.97

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.58%49.59%49.63%51.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.721.861.851.9758.14%53.91%54.05%50.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Atlante FC (Visiteur)

Prévision 24.86%4.02cote équitable
EV +1.94%
Avantage +0.473%
Kelly +0.625%
Croissance +0.012%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.99%24.81%24.92%26.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.403.793.804.1029.41%26.37%26.32%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.53%3.92cote équitable
EV -1.70%
Avantage -0.440%
Kelly -0.595%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.97%25.61%25.45%26.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.583.603.8530.30%27.92%27.78%25.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (47 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV +1.94%E +0.473%K +0.625%G +0.012%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -6.80%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 00:45
ATG (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV +1.94%E +0.473%K +0.625%G +0.012%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -6.80%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 00:45
1xBet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.47%EV -3.77%E -1.94%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.58%EV +1.19%E +0.293%K +0.388%G +0.005%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.96%EV -9.10%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 00:55
betPARX1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.72%E -5.34%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -0.548%E -0.137%K -0.183%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.08%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 00:45
Casumo1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.72%E -5.34%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -0.548%E -0.137%K -0.183%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.08%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 00:45
Grosvenor1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.72%E -5.34%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -0.548%E -0.137%K -0.183%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.08%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 00:45
Unibet (NL)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.72%E -5.34%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -0.548%E -0.137%K -0.183%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.08%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 00:45
Unibet (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.72%E -5.34%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -0.548%E -0.137%K -0.183%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.08%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 00:45
Unibet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -9.72%E -5.34%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -0.548%E -0.137%K -0.183%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.08%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 00:50
BetRivers1.81I 55.25%NM 50.96%EV -10.22%E -5.65%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -0.548%E -0.137%K -0.183%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -9.36%E -2.64%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 00:45
TABtouch1.80I 55.56%NM 51.10%EV -10.71%E -5.95%K -13.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -0.548%E -0.137%K -0.183%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -9.36%E -2.64%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 00:45
GTbets1.97I 50.76%NM 48.95%EV -2.28%E -1.16%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.41%EV -1.79%E -0.453%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.64%EV -7.57%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-16 04:05
BetUS1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -7.24%E -3.87%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -1.79%E -0.453%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -2.97%E -0.782%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-16 18:44
LeoVegas (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -11.71%E -6.58%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -1.79%E -0.453%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -10.63%E -3.04%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 00:45
LiveScore Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.04%EV -11.71%E -6.58%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.00%EV -1.79%E -0.453%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -10.63%E -3.04%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 00:40
Virgin Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 50.98%EV -12.70%E -7.21%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.01%EV -3.03%E -0.778%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -11.91%E -3.45%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-17 00:45
BetOnline.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 50.03%EV -4.27%E -2.21%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.89%EV -3.53%E -0.910%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.08%EV -1.70%E -0.440%K -0.595%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 00:20
LowVig.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 50.03%EV -4.27%E -2.21%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.89%EV -3.53%E -0.910%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.08%EV -1.70%E -0.440%K -0.595%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 00:20
Pinnacle1.94I 51.55%NM 49.51%EV -3.77%E -1.94%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.08%EV -4.77%E -1.25%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.41%EV -3.48%E -0.921%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 00:50
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.26%E -2.75%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -2.97%E -0.782%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-15 23:10
Coolbet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.57%EV -4.76%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -4.25%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-16 15:15
SportsBet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.12%EV -4.25%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 00:20
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -5.75%E -3.03%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -8.08%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-15 02:34
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -7.24%E -3.87%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -5.53%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 00:19
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.08%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 00:45
PMU (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 51.06%EV -14.68%E -8.54%K -20.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.11%EV -5.52%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.83%EV -13.19%E -3.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-17 00:45
Bet Victor1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -7.24%E -3.87%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.76%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.53%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 00:56
PlayUp1.88I 53.19%NM 49.06%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -6.76%E -1.80%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.63%E -3.04%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 00:50
Marathon Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.52%EV -7.24%E -3.87%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.89%EV -7.51%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.58%EV -7.57%E -2.09%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-17 00:50
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.26%E -2.75%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.53%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 00:10
betano_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.75%E -3.03%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.53%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-17 00:50
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -4.76%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -9.36%E -2.64%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 00:45
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -4.76%E -2.48%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.01%E -2.16%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -9.36%E -2.64%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-17 00:45
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -9.25%E -2.53%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -9.36%E -2.64%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-17 00:50
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.56%EV -10.71%E -5.95%K -13.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.44%EV -9.25%E -2.53%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.01%EV -12.42%E -3.62%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-17 00:33
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -5.26%E -2.75%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -10.49%E -2.91%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.25%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 00:55
Paddy Power1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -10.49%E -2.91%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -8.08%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-17 00:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -10.49%E -2.91%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -8.08%E -2.24%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-17 00:45
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 48.86%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -10.49%E -2.91%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -13.19%E -3.88%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-17 00:41
William Hill1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -10.49%E -2.91%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -15.74%E -4.77%K -6.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-17 00:55
888sport1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -10.49%E -2.91%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -15.74%E -4.77%K -6.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-17 00:55
Mr Green (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -10.49%E -2.91%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -15.74%E -4.77%K -6.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-17 00:55
888sport (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -10.49%E -2.91%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -15.74%E -4.77%K -6.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-17 00:55
NetBet (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 49.62%EV -13.19%E -7.54%K -17.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.46%EV -11.74%E -3.31%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.92%EV -14.46%E -4.32%K -6.15%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-17 00:50
Bet Right1.88I 53.19%NM 48.73%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -6.80%E -1.86%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-16 21:50
Sky Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -10.63%E -3.04%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-17 00:20
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -5.75%E -3.03%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -15.47%E -4.55%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -10.63%E -3.04%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-16 21:54
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41%0.9%2026-07-17 00:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41%0.9%2026-07-17 00:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41%0.9%2026-07-17 00:56
Matchbook1.99I 50.25%NM 49.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41%0.9%2026-07-17 00:56
Smarkets1.98I 50.51%NM 49.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%1.5%2026-07-17 00:56
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.44%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.25%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.31%2.9%2026-07-17 00:56