L’École des cotes

Mazatlán FC v Toluca

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-23 01:00 UTC

Score final : Mazatlán FC 4–3 Toluca

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

54 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Mazatlán FC (Local)

Prévision 19.92%5.02cote équitable
EV +15.56%
Avantage +2.68%
Kelly +3.24%
Croissance +0.504%

avec la cote maximale 5.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.83%19.79%19.74%22.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.784.735.8025.00%20.91%21.12%17.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Toluca (Visiteur)

Prévision 58.19%1.72cote équitable
EV -3.99%
Avantage -2.42%
Kelly -6.14%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.65

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
55.85%58.31%58.32%63.31%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.431.561.571.6569.93%64.13%63.69%60.61%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 21.89%4.57cote équitable
EV -1.72%
Avantage -0.384%
Kelly -0.494%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.49

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.86%21.90%21.93%23.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.604.164.204.4927.78%24.05%23.81%22.27%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (54 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
BetRivers5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV +15.56%E +2.68%K +3.24%G +0.504%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.31%EV -15.63%E -10.78%K -34.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -3.69%E -0.840%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 00:45
ATG (SE)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.53%EV +7.59%E +1.41%K +1.73%G +0.131%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.70%EV -9.23%E -5.91%K -16.48%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.77%EV -4.79%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 00:50
Svenska Spel5.40I 18.52%NM 17.53%EV +7.59%E +1.41%K +1.73%G +0.131%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.70%EV -9.23%E -5.91%K -16.48%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.77%EV -4.79%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 00:55
Unibet5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV +5.60%E +1.06%K +1.30%G +0.073%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.65%EV -10.97%E -7.17%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -6.98%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 00:50
Grosvenor5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV +5.60%E +1.06%K +1.30%G +0.073%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.65%EV -10.97%E -7.17%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -6.98%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 00:50
Unibet (NL)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV +5.60%E +1.06%K +1.30%G +0.073%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.65%EV -10.97%E -7.17%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -6.98%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 00:50
Casumo5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV +5.60%E +1.06%K +1.30%G +0.073%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.65%EV -10.97%E -7.17%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -6.98%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 00:55
Unibet (SE)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV +5.60%E +1.06%K +1.30%G +0.073%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.65%EV -10.97%E -7.17%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -6.98%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 00:54
betPARX5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV +5.60%E +1.06%K +1.30%G +0.073%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.65%EV -10.97%E -7.17%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84%EV -6.98%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 00:54
TABtouch5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV +5.60%E +1.06%K +1.30%G +0.073%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.81%EV -12.14%E -8.04%K -23.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86%EV -8.07%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 00:54
LeoVegas (SE)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.32%EV +4.60%E +0.877%K +1.08%G +0.050%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.03%EV -13.30%E -8.93%K -27.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.65%EV -8.07%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 00:50
LiveScore Bet5.25I 19.05%NM 17.32%EV +4.60%E +0.877%K +1.08%G +0.050%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.03%EV -13.30%E -8.93%K -27.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.65%EV -8.07%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 00:55
Virgin Bet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.30%EV +3.61%E +0.693%K +0.858%G +0.031%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.77%EV -13.88%E -9.38%K -28.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.94%EV -10.26%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 00:54
BetOnline.ag5.15I 19.42%NM 18.78%EV +2.61%E +0.507%K +0.629%G +0.016%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.69%EV -5.74%E -3.54%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.54%EV -1.72%E -0.384%K -0.494%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 00:54
LowVig.ag5.15I 19.42%NM 18.78%EV +2.61%E +0.507%K +0.629%G +0.016%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.69%EV -5.74%E -3.54%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.54%EV -1.72%E -0.384%K -0.494%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 00:54
1xBet5.04I 19.84%NM 19.06%EV +0.418%E +0.083%K +0.103%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.95%EV -5.15%E -3.16%K -8.18%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.99%EV -4.35%E -0.996%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-23 00:54
LeoVegas5.00I 20.00%NM 17.40%EV -0.379%E -0.076%K -0.095%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 60.85%EV -16.79%E -11.74%K -39.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.75%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-23 00:54
PMU (FR)5.00I 20.00%NM 17.40%EV -0.379%E -0.076%K -0.095%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 60.85%EV -16.79%E -11.74%K -39.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.75%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-23 00:55
Pinnacle4.99I 20.04%NM 19.29%EV -0.578%E -0.116%K -0.145%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -3.99%E -2.42%K -6.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -5.88%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-23 00:50
FanDuel4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -2.37%E -0.484%K -0.608%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -9.23%E -5.91%K -16.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -3.69%E -0.840%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 00:50
Coolbet4.85I 20.62%NM 19.48%EV -3.37%E -0.694%K -0.875%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.05%EV -6.90%E -4.31%K -11.50%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -3.69%E -0.840%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 00:50
DraftKings4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -4.36%E -0.909%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.33%EV -5.74%E -3.54%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -5.88%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 00:50
Bovada4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -4.36%E -0.909%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.85%EV -10.39%E -6.75%K -19.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -3.69%E -0.840%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 00:50
Fanatics4.75I 21.05%NM 19.64%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.67%EV -7.48%E -4.70%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -5.88%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 00:44
Bet Victor4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.21%EV -6.90%E -4.31%K -11.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -8.07%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 00:53
SportsBet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.06%EV -8.64%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -5.23%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 00:49
PlayUp4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -5.36%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.90%EV -6.90%E -4.31%K -11.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -10.26%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 00:54
GTbets4.72I 21.19%NM 19.62%EV -5.96%E -1.26%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.99%EV -8.64%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV -5.23%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 00:54
NordicBet4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -6.36%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.64%EV -5.74%E -3.54%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.50%EV -9.17%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 00:54
Betsson4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -6.36%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.64%EV -5.74%E -3.54%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.50%EV -9.17%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 00:54
Marathon Bet4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -6.36%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.25%EV -7.48%E -4.70%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -8.07%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 00:54
BetUS4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -6.36%E -1.35%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -6.90%E -4.31%K -11.50%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.76%EV -11.36%E -2.80%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 00:54
Fliff4.65I 21.51%NM 19.60%EV -7.35%E -1.58%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.43%EV -9.23%E -5.91%K -16.48%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.96%EV -9.17%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 00:54
BetMGM4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -8.35%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.08%EV -6.32%E -3.92%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -5.23%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 00:50
Bet Right4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -8.35%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.15%EV -8.06%E -5.10%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -8.07%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 00:54
Unibet (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -5.74%E -3.54%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -6.98%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 00:54
Betway4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -6.32%E -3.92%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -8.07%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 00:45
Everygame4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%EV -6.90%E -4.31%K -11.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 00:54
betfred_uk4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -8.64%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-23 00:54
Paddy Power4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.68%EV -10.97%E -7.17%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -8.07%E -1.92%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-23 00:49
Sky Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -10.97%E -7.17%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-23 00:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05%EV -10.34%E -2.30%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -12.72%E -8.48%K -25.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.81%EV -21.20%E -5.89%K -8.16%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-23 00:35
888sport4.40I 22.73%NM 20.10%EV -12.33%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -8.64%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -17.92%E -4.78%K -6.52%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 00:54
888sport (SE)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.10%EV -12.33%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -8.64%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -17.92%E -4.78%K -6.52%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 00:55
Mr Green (SE)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.10%EV -12.33%E -2.80%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -8.64%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -17.92%E -4.78%K -6.52%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 00:54
Coral4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -8.64%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-23 00:50
Ladbrokes (UK)4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.98%EV -8.64%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-23 00:50
William Hill4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -13.73%E -3.17%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -6.90%E -4.31%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -16.83%E -4.43%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 00:49
NetBet (FR)4.30I 23.26%NM 19.91%EV -14.33%E -3.33%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 57.85%EV -13.88%E -9.38%K -28.92%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.24%EV -15.73%E -4.09%K -5.52%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-23 00:54
Betclic (FR)4.25I 23.53%NM 20.64%EV -15.32%E -3.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 57.70%EV -11.55%E -7.60%K -22.22%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.66%EV -11.36%E -2.80%K -3.72%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-23 00:50
Winamax (DE)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -16.32%E -3.89%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.04%EV -6.90%E -4.31%K -11.50%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -5.88%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 00:54
BoyleSports4.20I 23.81%NM 21.16%EV -16.32%E -3.89%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.62%EV -8.64%E -5.51%K -15.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-23 00:54
Unibet (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 20.85%EV -16.32%E -3.89%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.25%EV -10.97%E -7.17%K -20.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.90%EV -12.45%E -3.11%K -4.15%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-23 00:54
Winamax (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.03%EV -20.30%E -5.08%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.48%EV -9.23%E -5.91%K -16.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.49%EV -10.26%E -2.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-23 00:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.69%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.30%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-04-23 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.69%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.30%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-04-23 00:55
Matchbook5.30I 18.87%NM 18.69%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.30%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-04-23 00:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.30I 18.87%NM 18.59%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.01%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.5%2026-04-23 00:55
Kalshi5.26I 19.01%NM 18.61%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.82%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%2.1%2026-04-23 00:50
Smarkets5.20I 19.23%NM 18.82%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.94%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.24%2.2%2026-04-23 00:54