Language:English
León v Necaxa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
León (Local)
Prediction 45.01%2.22fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.862%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.21%45.18%44.86%47.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.052.062.1853.48%48.71%48.54%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Necaxa (Visit)
Prediction 28.48%3.51fair odd
EV +3.94%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.059%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.05%28.41%28.58%29.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.183.153.6533.90%31.41%31.75%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.51%3.77fair odd
EV -0.308%
Edge -0.082%
Kelly -0.112%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.69%26.42%26.56%28.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.453.503.7633.33%28.96%28.57%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: León (Local): 45.01%; Necaxa (Visit): 28.48%; Draw: 26.51%. For Necaxa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.51. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.94%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV +3.94%E +1.08%K +1.49%G +0.059% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -4.55%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 00:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.94%EV +1.38%E +0.387%K +0.538%G +0.007% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.94%EV -5.61%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-01 00:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.88%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.44%EV +0.237%E +0.067%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.68%EV -0.308%E -0.082%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.88%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.44%EV +0.237%E +0.067%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.68%EV -0.308%E -0.082%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-01 01:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.24%EV -5.93%E -2.84%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.77%EV -0.902%E -0.259%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.98%EV -1.37%E -0.368%K -0.503%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-01 01:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.18%E -0.935%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.64%EV -8.63%E -4.25%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.74%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.62%EV -7.73%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-01 00:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 45.80%EV -9.53%E -4.74%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -6.03%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-01 00:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.03%E -1.83%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.65%EV -6.31%E -1.92%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.47%EV -5.61%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.55%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -5.88%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 01:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -12.23%E -6.27%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -9.85%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-01 01:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.73%EV -1.88%E -0.862%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -8.88%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.55%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.73%EV -1.88%E -0.862%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.79%EV -8.88%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -4.55%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.88%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.85%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.88%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.85%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.53%EV -15.83%E -8.47%K -18.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -8.88%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -4.55%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-01 00:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -12.23%E -6.27%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -8.88%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -12.50%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-01 01:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -10.30%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.53%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-01 00:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.60%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -10.30%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -11.18%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.30%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.85%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.30%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.41%EV -3.23%E -1.50%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.92%EV -11.15%E -3.57%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-01 01:02 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-01 01:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.68%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.20%E -2.06%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -8.53%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -12.50%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-01 01:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -12.50%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-01 01:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -14.03%E -7.35%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -20.46%E -6.82%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.96%EV -12.23%E -6.27%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 28.47%EV -12.29%E -3.99%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.57%EV -12.50%E -3.79%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-03-01 01:03 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.77%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -13.15%E -4.31%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -8.53%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-01 01:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.77%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -13.15%E -4.31%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -8.53%E -2.47%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.62%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -9.85%E -2.90%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.83%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.83%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.83%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.21%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -13.83%E -4.26%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.67%EV -11.78%E -6.01%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.19%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.14%EV -11.18%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-03-01 01:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 44.51%EV -13.13%E -6.80%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.64%EV -14.57%E -4.86%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -15.16%E -4.74%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-03-01 01:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.71%EV -9.08%E -4.50%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -15.99%E -5.42%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -11.18%E -3.34%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-03-01 01:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.75% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01% | 1.2% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.75% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01% | 1.2% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.99% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.12% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.90% | 1.6% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.99% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.12% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.90% | 1.6% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.08% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.52% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.40% | 2.4% | 2026-03-01 01:04 |