Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

León v Atlético San Luis

Início: 2026-09-15 01:00 UTC

Final: León 2–0 Atlético San Luis

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

León (Local)

Previsão 49.33%2.03odd justa
EV -4.80%
Vantagem -2.49%
Kelly -5.16%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.93

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.89%49.43%49.29%51.09%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.701.851.851.9358.82%54.09%54.05%51.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlético San Luis (Visitante)

Previsão 25.68%3.89odd justa
EV +2.72%
Vantagem +0.679%
Kelly +0.905%
Crescimento +0.025%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.97%25.51%25.77%26.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.353.653.654.0029.85%27.43%27.40%25.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 24.99%4.00odd justa
EV -2.52%
Vantagem -0.647%
Kelly -0.869%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.03%25.06%24.94%26.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.403.643.653.9029.41%27.50%27.40%25.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: León (Local): 49.33%; Atlético San Luis (Visitante): 25.68%; Empate: 24.99%. Para Atlético San Luis (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.89. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.72%.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.11%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV +2.72%E +0.679%K +0.905%G +0.025%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.72%EV -6.02%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-15 00:51
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.11%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV +2.72%E +0.679%K +0.905%G +0.025%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.72%EV -6.02%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-15 00:51
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV +0.147%E +0.038%K +0.051%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.27%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 00:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV +0.147%E +0.038%K +0.051%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.27%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 00:35
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.55%EV -6.28%E -3.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.76%EV -0.366%E -0.094%K -0.127%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.69%EV -2.77%E -0.712%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-15 00:55
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.06%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.16%EV -1.39%E -0.363%K -0.491%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV -2.52%E -0.647%K -0.869%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-15 00:45
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -10.23%E -5.62%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -2.42%E -0.637%K -0.864%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 00:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -10.23%E -5.62%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -2.42%E -0.637%K -0.864%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 00:35
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -10.23%E -5.62%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -2.42%E -0.637%K -0.864%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 00:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -10.23%E -5.62%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -2.42%E -0.637%K -0.864%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 00:35
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -10.23%E -5.62%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -2.42%E -0.637%K -0.864%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 00:35
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -10.23%E -5.62%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -2.42%E -0.637%K -0.864%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 00:35
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -10.23%E -5.62%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -2.42%E -0.637%K -0.864%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 00:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -11.21%E -6.23%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -2.42%E -0.637%K -0.864%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.52%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 00:51
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -6.28%E -3.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -3.70%E -0.988%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -7.52%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 00:55
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -4.99%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.52%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 00:56
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -7.27%E -3.86%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -4.99%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-15 00:55
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -7.27%E -3.86%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -4.99%E -1.35%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-15 00:55
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.36%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -5.02%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 00:51
BetUS🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.69%EV -8.25%E -4.44%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -7.52%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-15 00:50
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 00:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.27%EV -12.20%E -6.85%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -11.27%E -3.17%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-15 00:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.27%EV -12.20%E -6.85%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -11.27%E -3.17%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-15 00:35
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.27%EV -12.20%E -6.85%K -15.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -11.27%E -3.17%K -4.42%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-15 00:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.38%EV -13.19%E -7.49%K -17.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.29%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -12.52%E -3.58%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-15 00:35
GTbets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.24%EV -8.25%E -4.44%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.67%EV -6.53%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.09%EV -3.02%E -0.779%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 00:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.55%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.42%EV -6.53%E -1.79%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.03%EV -3.77%E -0.980%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-15 00:55
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.02%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 00:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -4.80%E -2.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -7.52%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 00:55
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -6.28%E -3.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.27%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 00:49
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -6.28%E -3.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.27%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 00:49
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -12.52%E -3.58%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-15 00:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.96%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -7.56%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -12.52%E -3.58%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-15 00:55
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.64%EV -6.28%E -3.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -8.84%E -2.49%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-15 00:55
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.58%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -8.84%E -2.49%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-15 00:55
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.79%E -3.03%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -5.02%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-15 00:55
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-15 00:50
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -12.52%E -3.58%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-15 00:50
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -9.73%E -5.32%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -15.02%E -4.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-15 00:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.36%EV -16.14%E -9.50%K -23.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.46%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.18%EV -15.02%E -4.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-15 00:35
LeoVegas🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.28%EV -6.28%E -3.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -11.41%E -3.31%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -8.77%E -2.40%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-15 00:55
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -11.21%E -6.23%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -10.02%E -2.78%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-15 00:45
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -15.02%E -4.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-15 00:45
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -15.02%E -4.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-15 00:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -15.02%E -4.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-15 00:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.89%EV -8.75%E -4.73%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -15.02%E -4.42%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-15 00:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.35%EV -12.69%E -7.17%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.69%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%EV -12.52%E -3.58%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-15 00:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.53%EV -10.72%E -5.92%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.22%EV -13.98%E -4.17%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.24%EV -13.02%E -3.74%K -5.25%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-15 00:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 25.00%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.98%0.0%2026-09-15 00:51
Matchbook◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%0.6%2026-09-15 00:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-09-15 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-09-15 00:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-09-15 00:55
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.53%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.40%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%1.0%2026-09-15 00:55