The School of Odds

Atlético San Luis v Cruz Azul

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 01:01 UTC

Final: Atlético San Luis 2–3 Cruz Azul

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Atlético San Luis (Local)

Prediction 18.99%5.27fair odd
EV +0.836%
Edge +0.157%
Kelly +0.194%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.68%19.03%19.03%21.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.254.734.625.3123.53%21.16%21.65%18.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cruz Azul (Visit)

Prediction 56.70%1.76fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.48%56.57%56.61%58.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.531.651.651.7465.36%60.66%60.61%57.47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.31%4.11fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.563%
Kelly -0.749%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.76%24.39%24.36%25.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.763.754.0228.57%26.59%26.67%24.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle5.31I 18.83%NM 18.05%EV +0.836%E +0.157%K +0.194%G +0.002%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.10%EV -6.45%E -3.91%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.85%EV -2.26%E -0.563%K -0.749%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 00:45
Coolbet5.30I 18.87%NM 17.93%EV +0.646%E +0.122%K +0.150%G +0.001%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -7.58%E -4.65%K -12.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:55
BetOnline.ag5.20I 19.23%NM 18.34%EV -1.25%E -0.241%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.81%EV -6.45%E -3.91%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 00:35
LowVig.ag5.20I 19.23%NM 18.34%EV -1.25%E -0.241%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.81%EV -6.45%E -3.91%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 00:45
SportsBet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -1.25%E -0.241%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -7.58%E -4.65%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-18 00:50
FanDuel5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -1.25%E -0.241%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.06%EV -8.72%E -5.41%K -14.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 00:49
Tipico (DE)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -1.25%E -0.241%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -9.28%E -5.80%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 00:50
1xBet5.01I 19.96%NM 19.13%EV -4.86%E -0.970%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.37%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.51%EV -4.94%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-18 00:49
Fanatics5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -5.32%E -3.18%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.75%E -0.687%K -0.917%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 00:40
BetUS5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -6.45%E -3.91%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -5.18%E -1.33%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 00:50
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.53%EV -10.98%E -7.00%K -19.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-18 00:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -5.05%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.53%EV -10.98%E -7.00%K -19.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-18 00:45
NordicBet4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -6.00%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -4.75%E -2.83%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-18 00:55
Betsson4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -6.00%E -1.21%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -4.75%E -2.83%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-18 00:55
Marathon Bet4.90I 20.41%NM 18.91%EV -6.95%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.84%EV -7.58%E -4.65%K -12.04%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.25%EV -7.13%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-18 00:54
DraftKings4.80I 20.83%NM 19.78%EV -8.85%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.18%EV -4.18%E -2.47%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -3.97%E -1.00%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 00:35
Unibet (UK)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -9.80%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.32%E -3.18%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-18 00:45
Betway4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -9.80%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.13%EV -6.45%E -3.91%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-18 00:50
PlayUp4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.80%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -6.45%E -3.91%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-18 00:55
Everygame4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -9.80%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -9.28%E -5.80%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-18 00:40
Sky Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -9.80%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.60%EV -10.98%E -7.00%K -19.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -12.47%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-18 00:50
LeoVegas4.70I 21.28%NM 19.46%EV -10.75%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.47%EV -8.15%E -5.03%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-18 00:55
Fliff4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -10.75%E -2.29%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.28%EV -8.15%E -5.03%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-18 00:55
GTbets4.62I 21.65%NM 19.99%EV -12.27%E -2.66%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.64%EV -4.18%E -2.47%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.37%EV -11.50%E -3.16%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-18 00:50
Svenska Spel4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.64%EV -1.35%E -0.774%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -6.40%E -1.66%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:50
ATG (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.64%EV -1.35%E -0.774%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -6.40%E -1.66%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:50
Bet Right4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.93%EV -7.02%E -4.28%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 00:55
William Hill4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -8.15%E -5.03%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-18 00:55
888sport4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -8.72%E -5.41%K -14.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-18 00:55
888sport (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -8.72%E -5.41%K -14.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-18 00:55
Mr Green (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -12.65%E -2.75%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -8.72%E -5.41%K -14.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -14.91%E -4.26%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-18 00:55
betPARX4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -14.55%E -3.23%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 00:50
Casumo4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -14.55%E -3.23%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 00:50
Grosvenor4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -14.55%E -3.23%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 00:50
Unibet (NL)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -14.55%E -3.23%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 00:50
Unibet (SE)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -14.55%E -3.23%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 00:50
Unibet4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -14.55%E -3.23%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -3.61%E -2.13%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -7.61%E -2.00%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 00:55
betfred_uk4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -14.55%E -3.23%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -8.15%E -5.03%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-18 00:55
Betclic (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -14.55%E -3.23%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.74%EV -9.28%E -5.80%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.44%EV -11.26%E -3.08%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-18 00:48
NetBet (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 19.26%EV -14.55%E -3.23%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.66%EV -13.25%E -8.66%K -25.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.08%EV -12.47%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-18 00:55
TABtouch4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -16.44%E -3.74%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -4.75%E -2.83%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.83%E -2.35%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-18 00:50
LeoVegas (SE)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -16.44%E -3.74%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.62%EV -5.32%E -3.18%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-18 00:50
LiveScore Bet4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -16.44%E -3.74%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.62%EV -5.32%E -3.18%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-18 00:50
Virgin Bet4.35I 22.99%NM 20.71%EV -17.39%E -4.00%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.60%EV -6.45%E -3.91%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -11.26%E -3.08%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-18 00:50
Neds4.33I 23.09%NM 20.65%EV -17.77%E -4.10%K -5.34%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -8.15%E -5.03%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-18 00:55
BetRivers4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -18.34%E -4.27%K -5.56%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.48%EV -1.91%E -1.11%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.04%E -2.71%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-18 00:45
PMU (FR)4.25I 23.53%NM 20.75%EV -19.29%E -4.54%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.76%EV -8.72%E -5.41%K -14.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.49%EV -12.47%E -3.47%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-18 00:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook5.70I 17.54%NM 17.41%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.8%2026-07-18 00:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-07-18 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-07-18 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-07-18 00:55
Smarkets5.70I 17.54%NM 17.25%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.58%1.7%2026-07-18 00:55
Kalshi5.56I 17.99%NM 17.47%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.23%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.30%2.9%2026-07-18 00:55