Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlante FC v Pachuca

Início: 2026-09-12 03:00 UTC

Final: Atlante FC 0–3 Pachuca

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlante FC (Local)

Previsão 30.74%3.25odd justa
EV +1.44%
Vantagem +0.435%
Kelly +0.624%
Crescimento +0.009%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.46%30.63%30.80%31.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.033.003.3035.71%32.96%33.33%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Pachuca (Visitante)

Previsão 42.21%2.37odd justa
EV -4.60%
Vantagem -2.04%
Kelly -3.65%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.26

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.79%42.19%42.14%44.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.932.152.152.2651.81%46.61%46.51%44.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.05%3.70odd justa
EV -2.62%
Vantagem -0.728%
Kelly -1.01%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.32%27.18%27.06%29.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.383.403.6032.26%29.58%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Atlante FC (Local): 30.74%; Pachuca (Visitante): 42.21%; Empate: 27.05%. Para Atlante FC (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.25. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.30, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.44%.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.44%E +0.435%K +0.624%G +0.009%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -11.36%E -5.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 06:14
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.44%E +0.435%K +0.624%G +0.009%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -11.36%E -5.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 06:14
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:15
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:14
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:15
BetRivers🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:14
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:15
betPARX🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:14
GTbets🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.22%EV -4.10%E -1.31%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 02:59
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 03:00
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 07:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -5.02%E -2.23%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 17:15
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.17%EV -14.73%E -7.29%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 06:15
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -15.58%E -7.79%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 06:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -15.58%E -7.79%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 06:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -15.58%E -7.79%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 06:15
BetOnline.ag🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.82%EV -5.02%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.05%EV -4.78%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 22:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.82%EV -5.02%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.05%EV -4.78%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 21:59
BetUS🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.82%EV -5.02%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.05%EV -4.78%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 22:05
Pinnacle🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.79%EV -5.02%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.10%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.11%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 19:50
1xBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -5.94%E -1.94%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.80%EV -5.87%E -2.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.74%EV -9.11%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.48%EV -6.56%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 41.93%EV -6.71%E -3.04%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.58%EV -9.11%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 17:30
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.02%E -2.23%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.62%E -0.728%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 15:25
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -5.02%E -2.23%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.68%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 03:04
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 03:04
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 03:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 03:04
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 09:04
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 07:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.33%EV -18.53%E -9.60%K -19.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.16%EV -14.79%E -4.70%K -6.88%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-08 06:14
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.74%EV -6.29%E -2.83%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -6.68%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-08 07:40
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.74%EV -6.29%E -2.83%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -6.68%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-08 07:45
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -9.38%E -2.80%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 02:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -11.36%E -5.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-09 02:54
betano_uk🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 12:29
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 12:31
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -6.68%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 15:25
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 03:04
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -11.36%E -5.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 07:40
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-07 23:04
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-07 23:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-07 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-07 23:04
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -11.47%E -3.98%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 15:25
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -11.47%E -3.98%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -11.36%E -5.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-07 19:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.46%EV -11.78%E -4.10%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.23%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.32%EV -13.44%E -4.20%K -6.11%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-09 12:36
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -13.93%E -4.98%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 03:04
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-09-09 02:30
Matchbook◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%3.9%2026-09-09 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.93%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.06%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.01%4.3%2026-09-09 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.93%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.06%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.01%4.3%2026-09-09 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.82%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.27%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.91%4.7%2026-09-09 15:11
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.90%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%5.6%2026-09-09 15:30