Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlante FC v Pachuca

Inicio: 2026-09-12 03:00 UTC

Final: Atlante FC 0–3 Pachuca

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlante FC (Local)

Predicción 30.74%3.25momio equitativo
EV +1.44%
Ventaja +0.435%
Kelly +0.624%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.46%30.63%30.80%31.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.803.033.003.3035.71%32.96%33.33%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Pachuca (Visitante)

Predicción 42.21%2.37momio equitativo
EV -4.60%
Ventaja -2.04%
Kelly -3.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.79%42.19%42.14%44.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.932.152.152.2651.81%46.61%46.51%44.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.05%3.70momio equitativo
EV -2.62%
Ventaja -0.728%
Kelly -1.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.32%27.18%27.06%29.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.383.403.6032.26%29.58%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Atlante FC (Local): 30.74%; Pachuca (Visitante): 42.21%; Empate: 27.05%. Para Atlante FC (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.25. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.44%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.44%E +0.435%K +0.624%G +0.009%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -11.36%E -5.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 06:14
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV +1.44%E +0.435%K +0.624%G +0.009%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -11.36%E -5.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-08 06:14
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:15
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:14
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:15
BetRivers🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:14
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:15
betPARX🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.64%E -0.512%K -0.744%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 06:14
GTbets🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.22%EV -4.10%E -1.31%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 02:59
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 03:00
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 07:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -5.02%E -2.23%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 17:15
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.17%EV -14.73%E -7.29%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-08 06:15
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -15.58%E -7.79%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 06:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -15.58%E -7.79%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 06:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -4.71%E -1.52%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -15.58%E -7.79%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 06:15
BetOnline.ag🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.82%EV -5.02%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.05%EV -4.78%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 22:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.82%EV -5.02%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.05%EV -4.78%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 21:59
BetUS🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.82%EV -5.02%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.05%EV -4.78%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 22:05
Pinnacle🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.79%EV -5.02%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.10%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.11%EV -5.05%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 19:50
1xBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -5.94%E -1.94%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.80%EV -5.87%E -2.63%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.74%EV -9.11%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.48%EV -6.56%E -2.16%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 41.93%EV -6.71%E -3.04%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.58%EV -9.11%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 17:30
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.02%E -2.23%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.62%E -0.728%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 15:25
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -5.02%E -2.23%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.68%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 03:04
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 03:04
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 03:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 03:04
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 09:04
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 07:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%EV -7.79%E -2.60%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.33%EV -18.53%E -9.60%K -19.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.16%EV -14.79%E -4.70%K -6.88%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-08 06:14
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.74%EV -6.29%E -2.83%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -6.68%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-08 07:40
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.74%EV -6.29%E -2.83%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -6.68%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-08 07:45
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -9.38%E -2.80%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-09 02:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -9.32%E -3.16%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -11.36%E -5.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-09 02:54
betano_uk🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 12:29
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 12:31
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -7.13%E -3.24%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -6.68%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 15:25
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 03:04
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -11.36%E -5.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-08 07:40
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-07 23:04
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-07 23:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-07 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -10.86%E -3.74%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-07 23:04
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -11.47%E -3.98%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 15:25
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -11.47%E -3.98%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -11.36%E -5.41%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-07 19:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.46%EV -11.78%E -4.10%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.23%EV -12.62%E -6.10%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.32%EV -13.44%E -4.20%K -6.11%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-09 12:36
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -13.93%E -4.98%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -9.24%E -4.30%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 03:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-09-09 02:30
Matchbook◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.05%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.22%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%3.9%2026-09-09 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.93%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.06%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.01%4.3%2026-09-09 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.93%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.06%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.01%4.3%2026-09-09 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 30.82%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.27%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.91%4.7%2026-09-09 15:11
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.90%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%5.6%2026-09-09 15:30