The School of Odds

Atlante FC v América

2026-07-25 03:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Atlante FC (Local)

Prediction 21.36%4.68fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -0.857%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.00%21.41%21.16%22.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.804.214.224.5026%24%24%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

América (Visit)

Prediction 53.10%1.88fair odd
EV -5.48%
Edge -3.08%
Kelly -7.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.90%52.94%53.19%54.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.731.7861%58%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.53%3.92fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.443%
Kelly -0.598%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.77%25.65%25.66%27.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.253.513.553.8531%28%28%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -3.86%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -6.01%E -3.39%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.98%E -0.784%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 20:44
Coolbet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -6.00%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.57%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -1.70%E -0.443%K -0.598%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-12 20:25
SportsBet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -6.00%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.31%EV -6.54%E -3.71%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -5.53%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 20:25
Marathon Bet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -6.00%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.01%EV -7.07%E -4.04%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.91%EV -8.60%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 23:44
FanDuel4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -6.00%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.03%EV -9.19%E -5.38%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -5.53%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 20:22
1xBet4.38I 22.83%NM 21.29%EV -6.42%E -1.47%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -6.01%E -3.39%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -8.60%E -2.40%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 23:49
NordicBet4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -9.20%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.08%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -9.36%E -2.64%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 01:04
Betsson4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -9.20%E -2.16%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.08%EV -5.48%E -3.08%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -9.36%E -2.64%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-13 01:05
Paddy Power4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.27%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.09%E -2.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-12 20:24
LeoVegas4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -10.27%E -2.44%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.09%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -9.36%E -2.64%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-12 22:14
Betclic (FR)4.15I 24.10%NM 21.15%EV -11.34%E -2.73%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.19%EV -12.38%E -7.50%K -19.04%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.66%EV -12.68%E -3.71%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-12 22:14
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -14.54%E -3.64%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.90%EV -8.13%E -4.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -17.02%E -5.24%K -7.57%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-12 23:50
888sport4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -14.54%E -3.64%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.90%EV -8.13%E -4.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -17.02%E -5.24%K -7.57%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-12 23:49
888sport (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -14.54%E -3.64%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.90%EV -8.13%E -4.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -17.02%E -5.24%K -7.57%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-12 23:49
Mr Green (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -14.54%E -3.64%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.90%EV -8.13%E -4.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -17.02%E -5.24%K -7.57%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-12 23:49
Sky Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 22.59%EV -18.81%E -4.95%K -6.72%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.40%EV -11.32%E -6.78%K -16.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.01%EV -15.75%E -4.77%K -6.85%G +0.000%16.5%2026-07-12 20:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 20:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 20:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 20:49