Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waterford FC v Sligo Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-06-12 18:45 UTC

Final: Waterford FC 4–0 Sligo Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waterford FC (Local)

Prediction 47.78%2.09fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.50%47.69%47.76%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.941.952.0254.64%51.44%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sligo Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 25.22%3.97fair odd
EV -0.394%
Edge -0.100%
Kelly -0.134%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.00%25.32%25.21%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.503.9530.30%28.10%28.57%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.00%3.70fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -0.775%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%26.99%27.02%29.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.343.303.6034.72%29.95%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Waterford FC (Local): 47.78%; Sligo Rovers (Visit): 25.22%; Draw: 27.00%. For Sligo Rovers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.95, with an expected value of -0.394%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -3.48%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -9.54%E -2.85%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-12 18:20
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -3.48%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:19
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -3.48%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:20
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -3.48%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -3.48%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -3.48%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -3.48%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -3.48%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:20
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -3.48%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:20
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -3.48%E -1.72%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -4.44%E -2.22%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -14.26%E -4.20%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 15:00
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -4.44%E -2.22%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.26%E -4.20%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-12 18:20
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.12%EV -5.40%E -2.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -5.44%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -2.79%E -0.775%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-12 18:40
Bet Right🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.38%EV -5.40%E -2.73%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.62%EV -13.00%E -3.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-12 15:49
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.80%EV -5.87%E -2.98%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.34%EV -0.394%E -0.100%K -0.134%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.86%EV -3.33%E -0.930%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-12 18:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.75%EV -5.87%E -2.98%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -14.26%E -4.20%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-12 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.70%EV -6.35%E -3.24%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -15.52%E -4.63%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-12 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.70%EV -6.35%E -3.24%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -15.52%E -4.63%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-12 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.18%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.49%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-12 18:20
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.94%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.70%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.79%EV -5.76%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-12 18:40
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.70%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-12 17:59
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -7.96%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-12 18:40
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -7.96%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-12 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -9.22%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-12 18:39
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -6.70%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-12 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.32%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -10.48%E -2.95%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-12 18:40
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -6.83%E -3.50%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -14.26%E -4.20%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-12 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -7.31%E -3.77%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -5.44%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -7.11%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-12 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.50%EV -8.26%E -4.30%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -11.74%E -3.35%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -6.84%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-12 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.63%EV -8.26%E -4.30%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -16.78%E -5.09%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.82%EV -14.94%E -4.74%K -6.95%G +0.000%14.1%2026-06-12 18:20
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.22%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.49%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-12 18:20
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.96%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -7.96%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-12 18:28
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.96%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -7.96%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-12 18:30
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -9.22%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-12 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.74%E -3.35%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-12 18:20
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.74%E -3.35%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-12 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.74%E -3.35%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-12 18:20
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -8.74%E -4.58%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.74%E -3.35%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-12 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -9.22%E -4.85%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -1.65%E -0.424%K -0.571%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.49%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-12 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -9.22%E -4.85%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -1.65%E -0.424%K -0.571%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.49%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-12 18:40
BetAnything🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -9.22%E -4.85%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -1.65%E -0.424%K -0.571%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.49%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-12 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -9.22%E -4.85%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -4.18%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-12 18:30
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.90%EV -9.22%E -4.85%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -7.96%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.54%E -2.85%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-12 18:29
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.54%EV -9.22%E -4.85%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -9.22%E -2.56%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-12 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.73%EV -11.13%E -5.98%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -11.74%E -3.35%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.6%2026-06-12 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.20%EV -11.13%E -5.98%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -15.52%E -4.63%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-12 18:40
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.67%EV -11.61%E -6.27%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -11.74%E -3.35%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%13.4%2026-06-12 18:40
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.74%EV -12.56%E -6.86%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%EV -11.74%E -3.35%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.30%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%14.5%2026-06-12 18:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.01%EV -12.56%E -6.86%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.76%EV -14.26%E -4.20%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.23%EV -22.23%E -7.72%K -11.82%G +0.000%18.8%2026-06-12 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-06-12 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-06-12 18:40
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-06-12 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-06-12 18:30