Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waterford FC v Shamrock Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-06-19 18:45 UTC

Final: Waterford FC 0–2 Shamrock Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waterford FC (Local)

Prediction 21.19%4.72fair odd
EV +3.85%
Edge +0.786%
Kelly +0.987%
Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.89%21.13%21.21%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.454.354.9025.00%22.46%22.99%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shamrock Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 54.44%1.84fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.60%54.51%54.39%56.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.671.671.7864.10%59.71%59.88%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.37%4.10fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -0.631%
Kelly -0.841%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.38%24.36%24.40%25.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.723.754.0030.30%26.85%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Waterford FC (Local): 21.19%; Shamrock Rovers (Visit): 54.44%; Draw: 24.37%. For Waterford FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV +3.85%E +0.786%K +0.987%G +0.038%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.47%EV -10.18%E -6.17%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.40%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-19 18:30
Unibet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV +3.85%E +0.786%K +0.987%G +0.038%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -10.72%E -6.54%K -16.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 18:40
Casumo🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV +3.85%E +0.786%K +0.987%G +0.038%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -10.72%E -6.54%K -16.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV +3.85%E +0.786%K +0.987%G +0.038%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -10.72%E -6.54%K -16.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 18:40
TABtouch🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV +3.85%E +0.786%K +0.987%G +0.038%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -10.72%E -6.54%K -16.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 18:30
Grosvenor🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV +3.85%E +0.786%K +0.987%G +0.038%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -10.72%E -6.54%K -16.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV +3.85%E +0.786%K +0.987%G +0.038%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -10.72%E -6.54%K -16.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV +3.85%E +0.786%K +0.987%G +0.038%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -10.72%E -6.54%K -16.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 18:30
betPARX🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV +3.85%E +0.786%K +0.987%G +0.038%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -10.72%E -6.54%K -16.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV +3.85%E +0.786%K +0.987%G +0.038%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.43%EV -10.72%E -6.54%K -16.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-19 18:40
BetRivers🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV +1.73%E +0.360%K +0.455%G +0.008%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.36%EV -11.27%E -6.91%K -17.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-19 18:32
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV +1.73%E +0.360%K +0.455%G +0.008%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -12.36%E -7.67%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.83%E -2.66%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-19 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.97%EV +0.670%E +0.141%K +0.179%G +0.001%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.33%EV -12.90%E -8.06%K -21.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -11.05%E -3.03%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-19 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.97%EV +0.670%E +0.141%K +0.179%G +0.001%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.33%EV -12.90%E -8.06%K -21.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -11.05%E -3.03%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-19 18:30
PMU (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.07%EV -2.51%E -0.545%K -0.697%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.23%EV -15.08%E -9.67%K -26.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -13.49%E -3.80%K -5.29%G +0.000%14.0%2026-06-19 18:30
Pinnacle🎯4.51I 22.17%NM 21.30%EV -4.42%E -0.979%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.65%E -2.06%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.44%EV -4.23%E -1.08%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-19 18:21
Coolbet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -4.63%E -1.03%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -2.52%E -0.631%K -0.841%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-19 12:00
FanDuel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -4.63%E -1.03%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.28%EV -8.00%E -4.73%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -4.96%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-19 18:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -4.63%E -1.03%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.40%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-19 12:00
Marathon Bet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.95%EV -5.69%E -1.28%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.91%E -4.04%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.40%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-19 18:19
1xBet🎯4.41I 22.68%NM 21.19%EV -6.54%E -1.48%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.02%EV -5.82%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.79%EV -8.13%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-19 18:41
Bet Right🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.75%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.40%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-19 11:59
Tipico (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.75%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.40%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-19 18:20
BetMGM🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -6.75%E -1.53%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.32%EV -8.00%E -4.73%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.83%E -2.66%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-19 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.39%EV -7.81%E -1.79%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.79%EV -5.82%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Betsson🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -7.81%E -1.79%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -9.83%E -2.66%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-19 18:20
NordicBet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -7.81%E -1.79%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -9.83%E -2.66%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-19 18:20
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -8.23%E -1.90%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -10.18%E -6.17%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.40%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-19 18:21
LowVig.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -8.87%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -3.10%E -1.74%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -7.40%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -8.87%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -3.10%E -1.74%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -7.40%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 18:40
BetAnything🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -8.87%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -3.10%E -1.74%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -7.40%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-19 18:40
DraftKings🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -8.87%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -5.28%E -3.03%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.96%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-19 18:20
Bovada🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -8.87%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.09%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-19 18:19
BetUS🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -8.87%E -2.06%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.09%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -8.62%E -2.30%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-19 18:20
Betway🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -10.99%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.40%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-19 18:20
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.99%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -5.82%E -3.37%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -12.27%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.4%2026-06-19 18:21
Winamax (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.99%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.92%EV -9.63%E -5.80%K -14.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -4.96%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-19 18:20
Everygame🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -10.99%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.90%EV -11.05%E -3.03%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-19 18:19
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.99%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.27%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-19 11:59
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.99%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.27%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.99%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.27%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-19 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.99%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.27%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-19 11:50
Neds🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.99%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.27%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-19 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.99%E -2.62%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -12.27%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-19 11:50
Unibet (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -13.11%E -3.20%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.74%EV -10.18%E -6.17%K -15.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.63%EV -12.27%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.8%2026-06-19 18:20
SportsBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -13.11%E -3.20%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.35%EV -12.36%E -7.67%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.31%EV -12.27%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%14.3%2026-06-19 18:21
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -15.22%E -3.81%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.60%EV -6.37%E -3.70%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -11.05%E -3.03%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.5%2026-06-19 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%EV -15.22%E -3.81%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.26%EV -11.81%E -7.29%K -19.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.76%EV -9.83%E -2.66%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.8%2026-06-19 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.36%EV -15.22%E -3.81%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 52.75%EV -11.81%E -7.29%K -19.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.89%EV -19.58%E -5.93%K -8.51%G +0.000%17.0%2026-06-19 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69%0.5%2026-06-19 18:21
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69%0.5%2026-06-19 18:21
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69%0.5%2026-06-19 18:20
Matchbook4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.13%1.1%2026-06-19 18:41