Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Patricks Athletic v Sligo Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Patricks Athletic (Local)

Prediction 71.77%1.39fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -3.41%
Kelly -13.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.42%71.61%71.81%73.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.301.301.3381.97%77.17%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sligo Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 9.50%10.53fair odd
EV +13.97%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.177%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.83%9.57%9.41%11.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.159.0012.0013.33%10.93%11.11%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.73%5.34fair odd
EV -0.738%
Edge -0.139%
Kelly -0.172%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.81%18.82%18.78%20.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.734.655.3023.81%21.13%21.51%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Patricks Athletic (Local): 71.77%; Sligo Rovers (Visit): 9.50%; Draw: 18.73%. For Sligo Rovers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.53. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.39%EV -8.13%E -6.35%K -29.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV +13.97%E +1.16%K +1.27%G +0.177%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -6.36%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-03 18:15
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -6.69%E -5.15%K -22.31%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%EV +9.22%E +0.802%K +0.878%G +0.081%4.72I 21.19%NM 19.84%EV -11.60%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-03 18:35
Coolbet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.25%EV -5.26%E -3.98%K -16.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.67%EV +4.47%E +0.406%K +0.447%G +0.020%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -6.36%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-03 16:40
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.63%EV -10.28%E -8.23%K -41.13%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%EV +4.47%E +0.406%K +0.447%G +0.020%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -11.04%E -2.32%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-03 18:15
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.46%EV -5.26%E -3.98%K -16.43%G +0.000%10.66I 9.38%NM 8.97%EV +1.24%E +0.116%K +0.128%G +0.002%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.57%EV -3.55%E -0.689%K -0.855%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -8.85%E -6.97%K -32.77%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -0.278%E -0.027%K -0.029%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -8.23%E -1.68%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 18:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.41%EV -5.26%E -3.98%K -16.43%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.56%EV -5.03%E -0.503%K -0.559%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.03%EV -0.738%E -0.139%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.41%EV -5.26%E -3.98%K -16.43%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.56%EV -5.03%E -0.503%K -0.559%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.03%EV -0.738%E -0.139%K -0.172%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 18:19
DraftKings🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.79%EV -5.98%E -4.56%K -19.28%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.40%EV -5.03%E -0.503%K -0.559%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.36%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-03 18:20
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.54%EV -7.41%E -5.75%K -25.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -5.03%E -0.503%K -0.559%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -10.10%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-03 18:39
BetAnything🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.54%EV -7.41%E -5.75%K -25.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -5.03%E -0.503%K -0.559%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -10.10%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-03 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.40%EV -7.41%E -5.75%K -25.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.03%E -0.503%K -0.559%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -11.04%E -2.32%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 16:40
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -6.69%E -5.15%K -22.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -5.03%E -0.503%K -0.559%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-03 18:25
Bet Right🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -7.41%E -5.75%K -25.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -5.03%E -0.503%K -0.559%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-03 16:45
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.15%EV -6.69%E -5.15%K -22.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -5.03%E -0.503%K -0.559%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -17.59%E -4.00%K -5.17%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-03 18:20
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.78%EV -12.44%E -10.19%K -56.53%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.76%EV -5.03%E -0.503%K -0.559%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.46%EV -15.72%E -3.49%K -4.49%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-03 18:15
Betsson🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.98%EV -8.13%E -6.35%K -29.03%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.40%EV -6.93%E -0.707%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.61%EV -7.29%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-03 18:30
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.98%EV -8.13%E -6.35%K -29.03%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.40%EV -6.93%E -0.707%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.61%EV -7.29%E -1.47%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-03 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.72%EV -6.69%E -5.15%K -22.31%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -9.78%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.46%EV -5.42%E -1.07%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-03 18:10
Everygame🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.77%EV -8.13%E -6.35%K -29.03%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.54%EV -9.78%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-03 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.26%EV -10.28%E -8.23%K -41.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.38%EV -9.78%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-03 18:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.97%EV -10.28%E -8.23%K -41.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.21%EV -9.78%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.82%EV -21.34%E -5.08%K -6.67%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-03 18:14
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -7.41%E -5.75%K -25.56%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -14.52%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -6.36%E -1.27%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 18:30
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -6.69%E -5.15%K -22.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -14.52%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -11.04%E -2.32%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 15:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 70.30%EV -11.72%E -9.53%K -50.95%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.05%EV -18.32%E -2.13%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.65%EV -17.59%E -4.00%K -5.17%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-03 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.51%EV -8.85%E -6.97%K -32.77%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -19.27%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.81%EV -4.48%E -0.879%K -1.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-03 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.40%EV -7.41%E -5.75%K -25.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -19.27%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -10.10%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-03 18:30
Neds🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.40%EV -7.41%E -5.75%K -25.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.68%EV -19.27%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -10.10%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-03 18:30
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.56%EV -8.13%E -6.35%K -29.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -19.27%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.82%EV -10.10%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-03 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.56%EV -8.13%E -6.35%K -29.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -19.27%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.82%EV -10.10%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-03 18:35
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:05
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:04
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:05
Casumo🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:04
TABtouch🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:04
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:05
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -4.54%E -3.41%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -5.26%E -3.98%K -16.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -13.85%E -3.01%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-01 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -6.69%E -5.15%K -22.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -15.72%E -3.49%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-01 00:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -6.69%E -5.15%K -22.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -15.72%E -3.49%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-01 00:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 70.48%EV -11.00%E -8.87%K -45.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.92%EV -24.02%E -3.00%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.59%EV -11.98%E -2.55%K -3.24%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-03 18:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.42%EV -8.13%E -6.35%K -29.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.68%EV -28.77%E -3.84%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.90%EV -17.59%E -4.00%K -5.17%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-02 05:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.40%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.61%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.99%1.1%2026-04-03 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.40%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.61%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.99%1.1%2026-04-03 18:40
Matchbook1.33I 75.19%NM 74.40%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.61%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.99%1.1%2026-04-03 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.17%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.89%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.94%1.4%2026-04-03 18:35