Language:English
St Patricks Athletic v Derry City
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
St Patricks Athletic (Local)
Prediction 42.96%2.33fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.74%42.81%43.09%43.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.182.2550.00%46.20%45.87%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Derry City (Visit)
Prediction 26.98%3.71fair odd
EV -0.179%
Edge -0.048%
Kelly -0.066%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.03%27.13%26.75%29.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.313.303.7032.79%30.21%30.30%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.06%3.33fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.709%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.28%30.06%30.16%31.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.043.053.2535.71%32.86%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Patricks Athletic (Local): 42.96%; Derry City (Visit): 26.98%; Draw: 30.06%. For Derry City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -0.179%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-16 12:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.98%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.27%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.19%EV -4.20%E -1.88%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%EV -0.179%E -0.048%K -0.066%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.77%EV -5.91%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-16 19:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.81%EV -4.20%E -1.88%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -16.37%E -5.28%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.12%EV -4.63%E -2.08%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.59%EV -2.88%E -0.799%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.29%EV -5.01%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-16 18:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.12%EV -4.63%E -2.08%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.59%EV -2.88%E -0.799%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.29%EV -5.01%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-16 18:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -2.30%E -0.709%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-16 19:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-16 18:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-16 19:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -12.82%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-16 19:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.74%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -17.72%E -5.81%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.88%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.74%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -17.72%E -5.81%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.88%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-15 07:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.80%EV -6.35%E -2.91%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -5.04%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.69%EV -8.62%E -2.83%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-16 19:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -6.35%E -2.91%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-16 19:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.45%EV -6.35%E -2.91%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.34%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-16 19:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -6.77%E -3.12%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 26.67%EV -5.31%E -1.51%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-16 19:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-16 19:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.62%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-16 19:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-16 19:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-16 19:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -8.32%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-16 19:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-16 19:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.96%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -9.62%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -12.82%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-16 19:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-16 19:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -6.81%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-16 19:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-16 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-16 19:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -6.92%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -11.32%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-16 18:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-16 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-16 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-16 18:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.82%E -3.27%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-16 18:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -12.82%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-16 19:25 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.78%EV -11.93%E -5.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -12.32%E -3.79%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -12.82%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-03-16 19:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.63%EV -11.93%E -5.82%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -15.02%E -4.77%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -11.32%E -3.84%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-03-16 19:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.03%EV -13.22%E -6.54%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 26.99%EV -13.13%E -4.08%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 29.97%EV -12.82%E -4.42%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-03-16 19:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.42%EV -14.08%E -7.04%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.32%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.26%EV -13.73%E -4.78%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-16 19:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -14.08%E -7.04%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -16.37%E -5.28%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -15.83%E -5.65%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-03-16 19:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.4% | 2026-03-16 19:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.4% | 2026-03-16 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17% | 0.4% | 2026-03-16 19:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.30% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38% | 1.3% | 2026-03-16 19:35 |