Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sligo Rovers v Galway United

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 18:45 UTC

Final: Sligo Rovers 1–4 Galway United

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sligo Rovers (Local)

Prediction 34.42%2.91fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.44%34.45%34.44%35.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.702.8240.00%37.35%37.04%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Galway United (Visit)

Prediction 35.35%2.83fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.59%35.33%35.34%37.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.572.552.7543.48%38.91%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.23%3.31fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.540%
Kelly -0.780%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.97%30.22%30.22%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.023.023.2536.36%33.16%33.11%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sligo Rovers (Local): 34.42%; Galway United (Visit): 35.35%; Draw: 30.23%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -1.75%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 34.14%EV -2.95%E -1.04%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.01%EV -2.78%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.86%EV -5.68%E -1.82%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-16 18:00
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -3.64%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.84%EV -4.32%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.59%EV -3.84%E -1.41%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.57%EV -9.92%E -3.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 18:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.84%EV -4.32%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.59%EV -3.84%E -1.41%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.57%EV -9.92%E -3.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 18:05
BetAnything🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.84%EV -4.32%E -1.56%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.59%EV -3.84%E -1.41%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.57%EV -9.92%E -3.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 18:05
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -5.36%E -1.95%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -4.54%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -6.29%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 18:10
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -5.36%E -1.95%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -6.29%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 17:50
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.04%EV -5.70%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.07%EV -5.96%E -2.24%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -8.71%E -2.88%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.04%EV -5.70%E -2.08%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.07%EV -5.96%E -2.24%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -8.71%E -2.88%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 18:35
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -4.54%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -1.75%E -0.540%K -0.780%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -6.29%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 18:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.72%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.19%EV -10.82%E -3.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 17:55
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 18:12
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-16 18:20
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 07:25
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 07:30
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 07:30
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 07:25
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 07:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 07:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 07:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 07:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 07:25
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-16 07:25
Everygame🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.86%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -10.82%E -3.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-16 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 17:50
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.37%E -2.81%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -12.33%E -4.25%K -6.49%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-16 17:55
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.60%EV -7.08%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.89%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.50%EV -12.94%E -4.49%K -6.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 18:25
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.46%EV -7.77%E -2.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.25%EV -7.37%E -2.81%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 18:15
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.46%EV -7.77%E -2.90%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.25%EV -7.37%E -2.81%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -7.80%E -2.56%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-16 18:15
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.80%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -6.29%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 18:00
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.09%EV -8.80%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -12.33%E -4.25%K -6.49%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -8.80%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -11.61%E -4.65%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-16 07:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -8.80%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -11.61%E -4.65%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-16 07:30
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.43%EV -9.49%E -3.61%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.17%EV -11.61%E -4.65%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.40%EV -15.36%E -5.48%K -8.53%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-16 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 32.44%EV -9.49%E -3.61%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.09%EV -18.68%E -8.12%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.47%EV -15.36%E -5.48%K -8.53%G +0.000%17.2%2026-05-16 18:10
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -9.83%E -3.75%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -3.27%E -1.02%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-16 17:54
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.09%EV -9.83%E -3.75%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.39%EV -13.38%E -5.46%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.53%EV -16.87%E -6.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-16 18:25
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -4.78%E -1.52%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 17:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -6.29%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -9.85%E -3.86%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -6.29%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 18:15
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -11.61%E -4.65%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -6.29%E -2.03%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 17:45
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.61%E -4.65%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-16 17:55
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.61%E -4.65%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-16 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.61%E -4.65%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-16 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -11.61%E -4.65%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-16 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.88%EV -13.38%E -5.46%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -12.33%E -4.25%K -6.49%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-16 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.47%EV -10.52%E -4.05%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.03%EV -16.92%E -7.20%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.50%EV -10.82%E -3.67%K -5.55%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-16 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.04%EV -13.96%E -5.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -13.38%E -5.46%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -9.31%E -3.10%K -4.66%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-16 18:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.96I 33.78%NM 33.45%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.11%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%1.0%2026-05-16 18:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.96I 33.78%NM 33.45%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.11%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%1.0%2026-05-16 18:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.96I 33.78%NM 33.45%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.11%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%1.0%2026-05-16 18:15
Matchbook2.96I 33.78%NM 33.45%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.11%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.43%1.0%2026-05-16 18:40