Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sligo Rovers v Galway United

Kickoff: 2026-09-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Sligo Rovers 1–3 Galway United

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sligo Rovers (Local)

Prediction 26.11%3.83fair odd
EV +1.85%
Edge +0.473%
Kelly +0.637%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.55%26.11%26.19%28.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.473.453.9031.75%28.81%28.99%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Galway United (Visit)

Prediction 48.14%2.08fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.636%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.95%48.00%48.12%50.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.941.932.0555.25%51.64%51.81%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.74%3.88fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -0.926%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.03%25.90%25.69%27.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.503.7532.26%28.75%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sligo Rovers (Local): 26.11%; Galway United (Visit): 48.14%; Draw: 25.74%. For Sligo Rovers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV +1.85%E +0.473%K +0.637%G +0.012%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -11.90%E -6.50%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 18:30
Pinnacle🎯3.82I 26.18%NM 25.15%EV -0.243%E -0.064%K -0.086%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.02%EV -5.64%E -2.88%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.83%EV -4.24%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-14 18:30
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -0.765%E -0.201%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-14 18:04
LowVig.ag🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -3.38%E -0.913%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.42%EV -7.08%E -3.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 18:41
BetUS🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -3.38%E -0.913%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.42%EV -7.08%E -3.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 25.57%EV -4.94%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.72%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.71%EV -6.82%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 18:39
1xBet🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 25.90%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.14%EV -4.24%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 18:39
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -6.12%E -3.14%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.47%E -0.926%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-14 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -3.71%E -1.86%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 18:41
BetAnything🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -3.71%E -1.86%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 18:41
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -9.97%E -5.33%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-14 18:06
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -9.97%E -5.33%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-14 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -7.08%E -3.67%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-14 17:50
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-14 18:39
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-14 18:15
NordicBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.68%EV -7.56%E -3.94%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 17:50
Betsson🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.68%EV -7.56%E -3.94%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 17:50
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.43%EV -9.01%E -4.77%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-14 17:54
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-14 18:35
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -10.93%E -5.91%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 18:05
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.04%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.41%EV -12.86%E -7.10%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -15.06%E -4.56%K -6.55%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-14 18:05
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -1.30%E -0.636%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 18:41
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -1.30%E -0.636%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 18:41
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -1.30%E -0.636%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 18:41
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -1.30%E -0.636%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -1.30%E -0.636%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 18:41
TABtouch🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -1.30%E -0.636%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 18:41
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -1.30%E -0.636%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 18:41
betPARX🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -1.30%E -0.636%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 18:41
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -1.30%E -0.636%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 18:41
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.09%EV -8.52%E -4.49%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -6.05%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-14 17:50
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -6.12%E -3.14%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-14 18:15
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.84%EV -9.49%E -5.05%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-14 18:35
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -10.93%E -5.91%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -10.93%E -5.91%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -10.93%E -5.91%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 17:55
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.21%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -10.93%E -5.91%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-14 17:55
Bet Right🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -12.52%E -3.74%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.09%EV -6.12%E -3.14%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.70%EV -12.52%E -3.74%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.10%EV -10.45%E -5.62%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.20%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-14 17:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -13.82%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.12%E -3.14%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-14 18:05
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -13.82%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.06%EV -12.86%E -7.10%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.58%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-14 18:16
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -15.13%E -4.65%K -6.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -6.12%E -3.14%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 18:06
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -15.13%E -4.65%K -6.72%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.20%EV -5.15%E -2.62%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -16.34%E -5.03%K -7.26%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-14 18:41
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -15.13%E -4.65%K -6.72%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.20%EV -5.15%E -2.62%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -16.34%E -5.03%K -7.26%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-14 18:41
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.09%EV -15.13%E -4.65%K -6.72%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.39%EV -6.60%E -3.40%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -17.63%E -5.51%K -8.01%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-14 18:40
BetRivers🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.46%EV -17.74%E -5.63%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.95%EV -1.78%E -0.875%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -16.34%E -5.03%K -7.26%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-14 10:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.09%EV -17.74%E -5.63%K -8.25%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 45.39%EV -9.49%E -5.05%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.52%EV -20.20%E -6.52%K -9.62%G +0.000%17.2%2026-09-14 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.2%2026-09-14 18:41
Matchbook◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.2%2026-09-14 18:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.35%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-09-14 18:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.35%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.97%1.3%2026-09-14 18:26