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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Shamrock Rovers v Waterford FC

Inicio: 2026-09-18 19:00 UTC

Final: Shamrock Rovers 3–2 Waterford FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Shamrock Rovers (Local)

Predicción 62.54%1.60momio equitativo
EV -4.93%
Ventaja -3.24%
Kelly -9.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.52

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.87%62.58%62.62%66.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.341.461.481.5274.63%68.50%67.57%65.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Waterford FC (Visitante)

Predicción 16.24%6.16momio equitativo
EV +5.56%
Ventaja +0.856%
Kelly +1.01%
Crecimiento +0.056%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.26%16.26%16.13%17.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.765.786.5020.00%17.36%17.32%15.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.21%4.71momio equitativo
EV +0.769%
Ventaja +0.162%
Kelly +0.205%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.52%21.16%21.25%22.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.954.344.304.7525.32%23.07%23.26%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Shamrock Rovers (Local): 62.54%; Waterford FC (Visitante): 16.24%; Empate: 21.21%. Para Waterford FC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.16. 11 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.56%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -12.44%E -8.88%K -31.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV +5.56%E +0.856%K +1.01%G +0.056%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV +0.769%E +0.162%K +0.205%G +0.002%7.9%2026-09-14 19:30
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.57%EV -9.31%E -6.42%K -20.69%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV +3.94%E +0.616%K +0.730%G +0.029%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 22:30
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.72%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV +3.94%E +0.616%K +0.730%G +0.029%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 22:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.72%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV +3.94%E +0.616%K +0.730%G +0.029%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 22:30
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.72%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV +3.94%E +0.616%K +0.730%G +0.029%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 22:30
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.72%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV +3.94%E +0.616%K +0.730%G +0.029%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 22:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.72%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV +3.94%E +0.616%K +0.730%G +0.029%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 22:28
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.72%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV +3.94%E +0.616%K +0.730%G +0.029%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 22:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.72%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV +3.94%E +0.616%K +0.730%G +0.029%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 22:30
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.72%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV +3.94%E +0.616%K +0.730%G +0.029%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 22:30
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV +1.50%E +0.241%K +0.286%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-18 12:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.71%EV -11.19%E -7.88%K -26.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -2.56%E -0.426%K -0.511%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -2.41%E -0.525%K -0.670%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 09:50
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -12.44%E -8.88%K -31.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -2.56%E -0.426%K -0.511%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.89%EV -8.78%E -2.04%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-17 22:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -12.44%E -8.88%K -31.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -2.56%E -0.426%K -0.511%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.89%EV -8.78%E -2.04%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-17 22:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.15%EV -12.44%E -8.88%K -31.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.97%EV -2.56%E -0.426%K -0.511%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.89%EV -8.78%E -2.04%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-17 22:30
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.05%EV -4.93%E -3.24%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.98I 16.72%NM 16.03%EV -2.88%E -0.482%K -0.579%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.92%EV -2.84%E -0.620%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-18 14:15
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.30%EV -7.43%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.88%EV -4.18%E -0.709%K -0.853%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 12:45
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.33%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.87I 17.04%NM 15.93%EV -4.67%E -0.795%K -0.958%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -8.78%E -2.04%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.45%EV -6.81%E -4.57%K -13.89%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.91%EV -4.99%E -0.853%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -8.78%E -2.04%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 15:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.52%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -5.80%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -6.66%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 12:42
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.52%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -5.80%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -6.66%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 12:45
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.52%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -5.80%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -6.66%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 12:40
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.52%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -5.80%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -6.66%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 12:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.99%EV -13.69%E -9.92%K -36.02%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.23%EV -5.80%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.78%EV -9.84%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-17 22:30
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.57%EV -5.56%E -3.68%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -6.62%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -4.53%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 12:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.28%EV -7.43%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -6.62%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -9.84%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 12:45
Bet Right🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.28%EV -8.06%E -5.48%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -6.62%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 12:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 63.85%EV -16.19%E -12.08%K -47.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.28%EV -9.05%E -1.62%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.87%EV -13.02%E -3.18%K -4.20%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-17 22:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.82%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -7.72%E -1.77%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-18 12:40
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 08:15
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.67%EV -6.81%E -4.57%K -13.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.84%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 12:45
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.67%EV -6.81%E -4.57%K -13.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.84%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 12:44
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.67%EV -7.43%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 07:55
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -8.14%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 12:35
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.01%EV -7.43%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -15.14%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 14:05
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-18 12:45
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.32%EV -6.81%E -4.57%K -13.89%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.92%EV -12.30%E -2.28%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-18 12:46
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.46%EV -11.19%E -7.88%K -26.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.42%EV -12.30%E -2.28%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-18 12:44
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.27%EV -6.18%E -4.12%K -12.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -8.14%E -1.88%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 12:45
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.19%EV -7.43%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 07:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.19%EV -7.43%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 07:54
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.19%EV -7.43%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 07:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.19%EV -7.43%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 07:55
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.87%EV -7.43%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.16%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -13.02%E -3.18%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 12:45
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.84%EV -9.94%E -6.90%K -22.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.96%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -10.90%E -2.59%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 12:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.48%EV -7.43%E -5.02%K -15.49%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -17.17%E -3.37%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -6.66%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-18 12:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.13%EV -8.06%E -5.48%K -17.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -18.80%E -3.76%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -8.78%E -2.04%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-18 12:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 61.35%EV -13.06%E -9.40%K -33.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.06%EV -18.80%E -3.76%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.59%EV -16.20%E -4.10%K -5.49%G +0.000%17.3%2026-09-18 12:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.89%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%1.0%2026-09-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.89%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%1.0%2026-09-18 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.89%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%1.0%2026-09-18 12:35
Matchbook◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.89%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%1.0%2026-09-18 15:15