Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galway United v Bohemians

Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:45 UTC

Final: Galway United 2–3 Bohemians

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Galway United (Local)

Prediction 24.85%4.02fair odd
EV +1.88%
Edge +0.459%
Kelly +0.608%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.48%24.68%24.96%25.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.673.704.1029.41%27.24%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bohemians (Visit)

Prediction 50.12%2.00fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -4.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.54%50.13%50.11%51.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.841.831.9157.14%54.39%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.03%4.00fair odd
EV -3.39%
Edge -0.879%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.24%25.19%24.93%26.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.593.603.8630.77%27.88%27.78%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Galway United (Local): 24.85%; Bohemians (Visit): 50.12%; Draw: 25.03%. For Galway United (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV +1.88%E +0.459%K +0.608%G +0.011%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-07 11:59
Pinnacle🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.71%EV -1.10%E -0.276%K -0.369%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -8.78%E -4.82%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.45%EV -3.39%E -0.879%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-07 20:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -3.09%E -0.791%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -8.28%E -4.52%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.08%EV -6.90%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 15:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -3.09%E -0.791%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -6.15%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 09:05
LowVig.ag🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -3.09%E -0.791%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -6.15%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 09:05
BetUS🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -3.09%E -0.791%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -6.15%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 09:05
BetAnything🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -3.09%E -0.791%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -6.15%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 14:00
1xBet🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 24.15%EV -3.58%E -0.924%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.66%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.19%EV -6.90%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 12:30
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -4.33%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.59%EV -5.77%E -3.07%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -3.64%E -0.946%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 08:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -5.57%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -4.89%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 10:44
Bovada🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -8.28%E -4.52%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 15:56
William Hill🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.46%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-07 20:00
PlayUp🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.49%EV -8.78%E -4.82%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -14.91%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 12:20
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:25
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:25
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:24
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:25
betPARX🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 19:25
DraftKings🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.90%EV -6.27%E -3.35%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.15%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -5.77%E -3.07%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 18:50
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -7.40%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-07 12:34
Paddy Power🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -8.06%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -7.40%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-07 14:49
Bet Right🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -9.30%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.10%EV -8.28%E -4.52%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -7.40%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 20:40
NordicBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -9.30%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.54%EV -5.77%E -3.07%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -13.65%E -3.96%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-07 12:55
Betsson🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -9.30%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.54%EV -5.77%E -3.07%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -13.65%E -3.96%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-07 12:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -10.54%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.93%EV -8.28%E -4.52%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -7.40%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-07 08:05
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -10.54%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-07 23:35
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.54%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -6.15%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-08 09:35
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.54%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.90%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-07 20:40
BetRivers🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.10%EV -11.78%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.69%EV -8.28%E -4.52%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -14.91%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-08 19:24
Neds🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -13.03%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -8.28%E -4.52%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -13.03%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -8.28%E -4.52%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 20:45
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -13.03%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -8.28%E -4.52%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 23:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -13.03%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -8.28%E -4.52%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 23:25
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -13.03%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -13.03%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.65%EV -8.78%E -4.82%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -14.91%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-08 19:25
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.14%EV -13.03%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.72%EV -11.28%E -6.37%K -14.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.14%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-07 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -13.03%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.64%EV -12.29%E -7.02%K -16.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -14.91%E -4.38%K -6.21%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-07 18:49
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.86%EV -14.27%E -4.14%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.01%EV -8.78%E -4.82%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.15%E -3.14%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-07 12:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.34%EV -14.27%E -4.14%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.57%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.10%EV -16.16%E -4.82%K -6.88%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-08 19:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.34%EV -14.27%E -4.14%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.57%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.10%EV -16.16%E -4.82%K -6.88%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-08 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -15.51%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -9.78%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -12.40%E -3.54%K -4.96%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-07 12:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.14%EV -15.51%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 48.56%EV -11.78%E -6.70%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.30%EV -18.66%E -5.74%K -8.29%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-08 19:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 23.93%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.20%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%4.4%2026-09-09 16:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 23.93%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.20%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%4.4%2026-09-09 16:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 23.93%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.20%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%4.4%2026-09-09 16:55