Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Drogheda United v St Patricks Athletic

2026-08-21 18:45 UTC — League of Ireland

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Drogheda United (Local)

Prediction 17.98%5.56fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -0.715%
Kelly -0.880%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.42%17.89%17.98%19.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.965.005.3522.22%20.18%20.00%18.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Patricks Athletic (Visit)

Prediction 56.95%1.76fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -6.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.79%56.94%56.95%57.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.611.601.6864.94%62.28%62.31%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.07%3.99fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -0.904%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.69%25.17%25.07%26.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.573.603.8529.41%27.98%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Drogheda United (Local): 17.98%; St Patricks Athletic (Visit): 56.95%; Draw: 25.07%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.85, with an expected value of -3.48%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯5.35I 18.69%NM 17.42%EV -3.83%E -0.715%K -0.880%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.83%EV -6.60%E -4.02%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -9.25%E -2.55%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 14:10
1xBet🎯5.28I 18.94%NM 17.73%EV -5.09%E -0.963%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.40%EV -5.46%E -3.29%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.86%EV -9.25%E -2.55%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-09 14:10
Coolbet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -5.63%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.94%EV -4.32%E -2.57%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.84%EV -3.48%E -0.904%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 12:05
NordicBet🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 17.89%EV -7.42%E -1.44%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.87%EV -7.73%E -4.77%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -8.50%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 12:00
Betsson🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 17.89%EV -7.42%E -1.44%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.87%EV -7.73%E -4.77%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -8.50%E -2.33%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-09 12:00
FanDuel🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -8.32%E -1.63%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.12%EV -8.30%E -5.16%K -13.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -7.24%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 12:05
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -10.12%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -4.89%E -2.93%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -14.76%E -4.34%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 13:44
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -10.12%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.87%E -5.55%K -14.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -9.75%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 12:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -10.12%E -2.02%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.87%E -5.55%K -14.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -9.75%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 12:20
SportsBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.42%EV -13.71%E -2.86%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.32%EV -10.58%E -6.74%K -18.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -12.26%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-09 12:04
Unibet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.40%EV -15.51%E -3.30%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 56.16%EV -12.29%E -7.98%K -22.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.44%EV -14.76%E -4.34%K -6.15%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-09 12:00
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.07%EV -17.31%E -3.76%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.23%EV -11.15%E -7.15%K -19.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.71%EV -11.00%E -3.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-09 12:00
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.27%EV -19.11%E -4.25%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 55.23%EV -10.58%E -6.74%K -18.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.50%EV -14.76%E -4.34%K -6.15%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-09 12:04
Winamax (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.20%EV -19.11%E -4.25%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 56.11%EV -12.29%E -7.98%K -22.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.69%EV -12.26%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-09 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.