Language:English
Derry City v St Patricks Athletic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Derry City (Local)
Prediction 29.43%3.40fair odd
EV -0.542%
Edge -0.160%
Kelly -0.228%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.12%29.44%29.53%31.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.053.103.3836.36%32.78%32.26%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
St Patricks Athletic (Visit)
Prediction 40.07%2.50fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.95%40.04%40.06%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.302.302.4347.62%43.42%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.50%3.28fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.72%30.52%30.40%31.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.993.003.1537.04%33.44%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Derry City (Local): 29.43%; St Patricks Athletic (Visit): 40.07%; Draw: 30.50%. For Derry City (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.38, with an expected value of -0.542%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.45%EV -0.542%E -0.160%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.74%EV -5.43%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.82%EV -4.83%E -1.55%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -1.42%E -0.425%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -6.24%E -2.66%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -9.10%E -3.05%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -1.42%E -0.425%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -6.24%E -2.66%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -9.10%E -3.05%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -1.42%E -0.425%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.26%EV -6.24%E -2.66%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -9.10%E -3.05%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.86%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.81%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.33%EV -3.91%E -1.24%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 18:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -5.83%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -5.44%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-22 18:38 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-22 18:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.30%EV -6.13%E -1.92%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.46%EV -7.44%E -3.22%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.25%EV -5.74%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.31%E -2.32%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.72%EV -7.60%E -2.42%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.72%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -5.44%E -1.75%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -5.83%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -5.83%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.54%E -3.98%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-22 18:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.18%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -11.54%E -3.98%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -13.85%E -6.44%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -13.85%E -6.44%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -13.85%E -6.44%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -13.85%E -6.44%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.72%E -3.91%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.72%E -3.91%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.72%E -3.91%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.72%E -3.91%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.84%E -4.37%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.54%E -3.98%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -11.72%E -3.91%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.25%EV -13.85%E -6.44%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.91%EV -14.59%E -5.21%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.25%EV -11.72%E -3.91%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.36%EV -15.85%E -7.55%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.39%EV -17.64%E -6.53%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.43%EV -13.19%E -4.47%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.16%EV -2.63%E -1.08%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.40%EV -6.96%E -2.28%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.50%EV -13.19%E -4.47%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.48%EV -13.85%E -6.44%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -11.54%E -3.98%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -3.83%E -1.60%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.49%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -14.67%E -5.06%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.93%EV -11.85%E -5.38%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -15.25%E -5.30%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -4.63%E -1.95%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.64%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.46%EV -16.14%E -5.66%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -5.83%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.46%EV -16.14%E -5.66%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -5.83%E -2.48%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -10.01%E -3.39%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -19.08%E -6.94%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.95%EV -7.84%E -3.41%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.31%EV -12.15%E -4.22%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-05-22 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-05-22 18:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-05-22 18:30 |