La escuela de los momios

Derry City v Bohemians

Inicio: 2026-06-12 18:45 UTC

Final: Derry City 4–1 Bohemians

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Derry City (Local)

Predicción 33.83%2.96momio equitativo
EV -1.90%
Ventaja -0.654%
Kelly -0.999%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.93%33.79%33.83%35.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.552.752.752.9039.22%36.38%36.36%34.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Bohemians (Visitante)

Predicción 35.83%2.79momio equitativo
EV -1.10%
Ventaja -0.398%
Kelly -0.624%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.07%35.93%35.80%38.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.512.502.7643.48%39.80%40.00%36.23%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.34%3.30momio equitativo
EV -1.40%
Ventaja -0.431%
Kelly -0.623%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.18%30.27%30.37%32.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.633.033.053.2538.02%32.95%32.79%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
betPARX2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -1.90%E -0.654%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -12.92%E -5.32%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 18:59
Casumo2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -1.90%E -0.654%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -12.92%E -5.32%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 18:59
LeoVegas2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -1.90%E -0.654%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -12.92%E -5.32%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 18:59
Grosvenor2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -1.90%E -0.654%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -12.92%E -5.32%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 19:00
Unibet (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -1.90%E -0.654%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -12.92%E -5.32%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 18:59
Unibet (NL)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -1.90%E -0.654%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -12.92%E -5.32%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 19:00
Svenska Spel2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -1.90%E -0.654%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -12.92%E -5.32%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 19:00
ATG (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -1.90%E -0.654%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -12.92%E -5.32%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 19:00
TABtouch2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -1.90%E -0.654%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -12.92%E -5.32%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 19:00
Unibet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -1.90%E -0.654%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -12.92%E -5.32%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-10 19:00
BetRivers2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -2.57%E -0.894%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -14.00%E -5.83%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-10 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -3.59%E -1.26%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.23%EV -14.72%E -6.18%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-10 19:00
Pinnacle2.83I 35.34%NM 34.01%EV -4.27%E -1.51%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.13%EV -1.82%E -0.663%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.85%EV -5.35%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-12 18:30
Coolbet2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -5.28%E -1.89%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -6.83%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-12 18:29
Virgin Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.00%EV -5.28%E -1.89%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.13%EV -15.79%E -6.72%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.87%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-10 18:59
LiveScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.00%EV -5.28%E -1.89%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.13%EV -15.79%E -6.72%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.87%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-10 19:00
Betsson2.78I 35.97%NM 33.46%EV -5.96%E -2.14%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.05%EV -7.55%E -2.93%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-12 18:30
NordicBet2.78I 35.97%NM 33.46%EV -5.96%E -2.14%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.05%EV -7.55%E -2.93%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-12 18:29
DraftKings2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -6.97%E -2.54%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -3.25%E -1.20%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-12 18:40
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.97%E -2.54%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.83%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-12 18:30
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -6.97%E -2.54%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.83%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-12 18:38
Tipico (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -6.97%E -2.54%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -8.62%E -3.38%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-12 18:30
Bovada2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.97%E -2.54%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-12 18:28
BetMGM2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -6.97%E -2.54%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -12.21%E -4.98%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.5%2026-06-12 18:20
PMU (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -6.97%E -2.54%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -17.58%E -7.64%K -13.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -10.50%E -3.56%K -5.39%G +0.000%13.7%2026-06-10 18:59
Marathon Bet2.74I 36.50%NM 34.02%EV -7.31%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.91%EV -4.32%E -1.62%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-12 18:40
BetUS2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -8.66%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -5.04%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-12 18:40
Bet Right2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -8.66%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:30
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -8.66%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -6.83%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-12 18:39
PointsBet (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -8.66%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-12 18:30
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -8.66%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.12%E -2.33%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -12.02%E -4.14%K -6.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-12 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -8.66%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -12.21%E -4.98%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-12 18:20
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -8.66%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -12.21%E -4.98%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-12 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -8.66%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -12.21%E -4.98%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-12 18:20
Coral2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -8.66%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -12.21%E -4.98%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.2%2026-06-12 18:30
LowVig.ag2.68I 37.31%NM 35.09%EV -9.34%E -3.49%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.07%EV -1.10%E -0.398%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-12 18:40
BetOnline.ag2.68I 37.31%NM 35.09%EV -9.34%E -3.49%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.07%EV -1.10%E -0.398%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-12 18:40
BetAnything2.68I 37.31%NM 35.09%EV -9.34%E -3.49%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.07%EV -1.10%E -0.398%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-12 18:40
1xBet2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%EV -10.02%E -3.77%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.12%EV -4.68%E -1.76%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV -4.74%E -1.51%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-12 18:40
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -10.35%E -3.91%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-12 18:29
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 34.28%EV -10.35%E -3.91%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -6.83%E -2.63%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -10.50%E -3.56%K -5.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-12 18:29
PlayUp2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -10.35%E -3.91%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -8.62%E -3.38%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.3%2026-06-12 18:30
Unibet (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 33.31%EV -10.35%E -3.91%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.78%EV -14.00%E -5.83%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.92%EV -10.50%E -3.56%K -5.39%G +0.000%13.3%2026-06-12 18:30
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -11.03%E -4.19%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -12.02%E -4.14%K -6.33%G +0.000%12.5%2026-06-12 18:40
betfred_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -11.37%E -4.34%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-12 18:29
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -11.37%E -4.34%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-12 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.02%EV -12.05%E -4.63%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.34%EV -10.42%E -4.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.64%EV -20.21%E -7.68%K -12.40%G +0.000%16.5%2026-06-12 18:39
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.33%EV -13.74%E -5.39%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -14.00%E -5.83%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.18%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%14.2%2026-06-12 18:30
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 33.63%EV -13.74%E -5.39%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.74%EV -14.00%E -5.83%K -10.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.63%EV -15.05%E -5.38%K -8.36%G +0.000%16.6%2026-06-12 18:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.07%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-06-12 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.07%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-06-12 18:40
Matchbook2.90I 34.48%NM 34.07%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-06-12 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.88I 34.72%NM 34.22%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.45%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.33%1.5%2026-06-12 18:40