The School of Odds

Jeju United FC v Daejeon Citizen

2026-07-12 10:30 — K League 1

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis)

Option 1: Jeju United FC (Local)

Odds
2.5040.00%Min
2.6937.24%Mean
2.7236.76%Median
2.7536.36%Max
Consensus probabilities
32.85%3.044Min
34.88%2.867Max
33.71%2.966Mean
33.67%2.970Median
33.74%2.964IQM
33.84%2.955Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.75 under the IQM model: 33.74%

EV -7.22%Edge -2.62%Kelly -4.12%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Daejeon Citizen (Visit)

Odds
2.2045.45%Min
2.4141.45%Mean
2.4041.67%Median
2.5539.22%Max
Consensus probabilities
36.37%2.750Min
39.43%2.536Max
37.79%2.646Mean
37.79%2.646Median
37.83%2.644IQM
37.66%2.655Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.55 under the IQM model: 37.83%

EV -3.54%Edge -1.39%Kelly -2.29%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.0033.33%Min
3.2231.06%Mean
3.2031.25%Median
3.4229.24%Max
Consensus probabilities
27.51%3.635Min
29.91%3.343Max
28.50%3.509Mean
28.53%3.505Median
28.43%3.517IQM
28.50%3.509Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.42 under the IQM model: 28.43%

EV -2.75%Edge -0.805%Kelly -1.14%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

BookmakerJeju United FC (Local) ▼Daejeon Citizen (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet2.75I 36.36% NM 33.97%EV -7.22% E -2.62% K -4.12% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 38.14%EV -7.33% E -2.99% K -5.05% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 27.89%EV -4.74% E -1.42% K -2.02% G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 11:55
Tipico (DE)2.75I 36.36% NM 33.72%EV -7.22% E -2.62% K -4.12% G +0.000%2.55I 39.22% NM 36.37%EV -3.54% E -1.39% K -2.29% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.91%EV -11.85% E -3.82% K -5.64% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-05 13:00
Fanatics2.75I 36.36% NM 33.54%EV -7.22% E -2.62% K -4.12% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 37.64%EV -7.33% E -2.99% K -5.05% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.82%EV -9.01% E -2.82% K -4.10% G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-05 11:55
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36% NM 33.42%EV -7.22% E -2.62% K -4.12% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 38.30%EV -9.22% E -3.84% K -6.58% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 28.28%EV -7.59% E -2.33% K -3.37% G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-05 11:45
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36% NM 33.42%EV -7.22% E -2.62% K -4.12% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 38.30%EV -9.22% E -3.84% K -6.58% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 28.28%EV -7.59% E -2.33% K -3.37% G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-05 11:55
Pinnacle2.74I 36.50% NM 34.77%EV -7.55% E -2.76% K -4.34% G +0.000%2.55I 39.22% NM 37.37%EV -3.54% E -1.39% K -2.29% G +0.000%3.42I 29.24% NM 27.86%EV -2.75% E -0.805% K -1.14% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 11:55
1xBet2.73I 36.63% NM 34.14%EV -7.89% E -2.89% K -4.56% G +0.000%2.49I 40.16% NM 37.44%EV -5.81% E -2.33% K -3.90% G +0.000%3.28I 30.49% NM 28.42%EV -6.74% E -2.05% K -2.95% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-05 11:54
Marathon Bet2.73I 36.63% NM 34.14%EV -7.89% E -2.89% K -4.56% G +0.000%2.49I 40.16% NM 37.44%EV -5.81% E -2.33% K -3.90% G +0.000%3.28I 30.49% NM 28.42%EV -6.74% E -2.05% K -2.95% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-05 11:45
NordicBet2.72I 36.76% NM 33.52%EV -8.23% E -3.02% K -4.78% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 37.99%EV -9.22% E -3.84% K -6.58% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.49%EV -9.01% E -2.82% K -4.10% G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-05 11:45
Betsson2.72I 36.76% NM 33.52%EV -8.23% E -3.02% K -4.78% G +0.000%2.40I 41.67% NM 37.99%EV -9.22% E -3.84% K -6.58% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.49%EV -9.01% E -2.82% K -4.10% G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-05 11:45
BoyleSports2.70I 37.04% NM 32.85%EV -8.90% E -3.30% K -5.24% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 39.43%EV -14.89% E -6.62% K -11.91% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 27.72%EV -9.01% E -2.82% K -4.10% G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-05 11:00
LeoVegas2.65I 37.74% NM 33.83%EV -10.59% E -4.00% K -6.42% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 38.15%EV -11.11% E -4.73% K -8.23% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.02%EV -9.01% E -2.82% K -4.10% G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-05 11:50
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02% NM 32.83%EV -11.26% E -4.28% K -6.91% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 38.38%EV -14.89% E -6.62% K -11.91% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.79%EV -14.70% E -4.90% K -7.35% G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-05 10:55
William Hill2.62I 38.17% NM 34.88%EV -11.60% E -4.43% K -7.16% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 36.56%EV -5.44% E -2.17% K -3.62% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.56%EV -9.01% E -2.82% K -4.10% G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-05 12:00
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17% NM 34.88%EV -11.60% E -4.43% K -7.16% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 36.56%EV -5.44% E -2.17% K -3.62% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 28.56%EV -9.01% E -2.82% K -4.10% G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-05 12:00
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17% NM 34.40%EV -11.60% E -4.43% K -7.16% G +0.000%2.38I 42.02% NM 37.87%EV -9.97% E -4.19% K -7.23% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 27.73%EV -7.59% E -2.33% K -3.37% G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-05 11:54
Winamax (DE)2.55I 39.22% NM 33.98%EV -13.96% E -5.48% K -9.01% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 38.51%EV -14.89% E -6.62% K -11.91% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 27.51%EV -10.43% E -3.31% K -4.85% G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-05 11:45
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00% NM 33.67%EV -15.65% E -6.26% K -10.43% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 38.27%EV -16.78% E -7.63% K -13.99% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 28.06%EV -14.70% E -4.90% K -7.35% G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-05 11:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerJeju United FC (Local)Daejeon Citizen (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.78I 35.97%2.58I 38.76%2.94I 34.01%8.7%2026-07-05 12:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%2.58I 38.76%2.94I 34.01%8.7%2026-07-05 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%2.58I 38.76%2.94I 34.01%8.7%2026-07-05 12:25
Smarkets2.52I 39.68%2.36I 42.37%2.92I 34.25%16.3%2026-07-05 12:55