The School of Odds
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V-Varen Nagasaki v Nagoya Grampus

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 08:00 UTC

Final: V-Varen Nagasaki 1–2 Nagoya Grampus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)

Prediction 40.23%2.49fair odd
EV +0.574%
Edge +0.230%
Kelly +0.383%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.10%39.94%40.26%40.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.302.5046.51%43.42%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nagoya Grampus (Visit)

Prediction 31.48%3.18fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.29%31.74%31.58%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.882.903.0537.04%34.76%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.29%3.53fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -0.780%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%28.33%28.16%29.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.213.233.4432.26%31.11%30.96%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 40.23%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 31.48%; Draw: 28.29%. For V-Varen Nagasaki (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.574%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV +0.574%E +0.230%K +0.383%G +0.002%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -15.00%E -5.56%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 07:25
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.15%EV -3.05%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.72%EV -3.98%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.13%EV -2.68%E -0.780%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-03 07:51
BetAnything🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -3.45%E -1.44%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 07:55
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.25%E -1.79%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -13.43%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 07:45
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -3.98%E -1.31%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -5.23%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 07:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.53%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.87%EV -4.93%E -1.63%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.60%EV -7.78%E -2.39%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 07:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 07:55
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 07:55
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.57%EV -8.08%E -2.77%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 07:55
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.57%EV -8.08%E -2.77%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 07:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -9.34%E -3.24%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 07:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.71%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 07:55
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -15.00%E -5.56%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -8.06%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-03 07:35
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -13.43%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 07:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -13.43%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 07:40
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -13.43%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 07:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -13.43%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 07:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.82%EV -8.28%E -3.63%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.08%EV -10.91%E -3.85%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.11%EV -8.62%E -2.67%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-03 07:53
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV -9.48%E -4.21%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -10.28%E -3.61%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -6.64%E -2.01%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 07:55
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.48%E -4.21%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 07:55
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.48%E -4.21%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -5.56%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.30%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 07:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -11.49%E -5.22%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -8.71%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -9.47%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-03 07:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.58%EV -13.51%E -6.28%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.73%EV -13.43%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.70%EV -10.89%E -3.46%K -5.06%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-03 07:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.16%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-05-03 07:55