The School of Odds
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V-Varen Nagasaki v Gamba Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 09:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)

Prediction 26.77%3.74fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.409%
Kelly -0.561%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.85%26.77%26.72%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.393.403.6831.75%29.53%29.41%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gamba Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 46.34%2.16fair odd
EV -5.01%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -4.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.83%46.40%46.28%48.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.992.002.0552.63%50.32%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.90%3.72fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.277%
Kelly -0.380%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.85%26.83%27.00%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.383.373.6830.77%29.62%29.67%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 26.77%; Gamba Osaka (Visit): 46.34%; Draw: 26.90%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.68, with an expected value of -1.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 25.85%EV -1.50%E -0.409%K -0.561%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -8.71%E -4.42%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.85%EV -1.02%E -0.277%K -0.380%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 05:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -4.18%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -9.18%E -4.68%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.35%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 22:49
DraftKings🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -4.98%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.02%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 05:49
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -6.40%E -3.17%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -7.21%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 11:19
BetAnything🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.32%E -1.81%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.86%E -1.67%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 22:54
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.88%EV -6.40%E -3.17%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -8.55%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 11:19
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -7.66%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.88%EV -6.40%E -3.17%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -8.55%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 11:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 26.60%EV -8.46%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.41%EV -9.18%E -4.68%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.99%EV -9.36%E -2.78%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 09:34
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.01%E -2.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.55%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-22 10:30
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.55%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-22 10:30
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.24%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 11:39
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.24%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 11:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.24%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 11:39
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.00%E -2.65%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.24%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 11:30
Unibet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.64%EV -10.34%E -3.09%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -11.50%E -6.02%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.64%EV -9.90%E -2.95%K -4.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 09:34
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -11.67%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -5.01%E -2.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.55%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-24 00:29
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.67%E -3.54%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -11.50%E -6.02%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -8.55%E -2.51%K -3.56%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 05:08
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.83%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -12.58%E -3.87%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-22 10:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.83%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -12.58%E -3.87%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-22 10:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.83%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -12.58%E -3.87%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-22 10:30
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.83%EV -7.32%E -3.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -12.58%E -3.87%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-22 10:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.43%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.96%EV -10.10%E -5.21%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -9.90%E -2.95%K -4.21%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-22 11:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.57%EV -15.69%E -4.98%K -7.30%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 45.71%EV -11.96%E -6.29%K -13.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.72%EV -12.58%E -3.87%K -5.59%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-22 11:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.87%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.55%9.0%2026-04-24 00:50