Language:English
V-Varen Nagasaki v Cerezo Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)
Prediction 26.71%3.74fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -0.919%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.49%26.70%26.64%28.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.463.503.6231.75%28.90%28.57%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cerezo Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 46.97%2.13fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.33%46.95%47.03%48.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.941.942.0554.05%51.42%51.68%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.32%3.80fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.346%
Kelly -0.472%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.03%26.35%26.33%27.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.323.533.553.7530.12%28.35%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 26.71%; Cerezo Osaka (Visit): 46.97%; Draw: 26.32%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -1.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.55%EV -3.33%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.12%EV -4.17%E -2.05%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -3.93%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-18 13:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -4.64%E -2.29%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-18 11:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.12%EV -6.99%E -3.53%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -1.30%E -0.346%K -0.472%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -9.34%E -4.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -3.93%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -9.34%E -4.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -3.93%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -10.75%E -5.66%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-18 13:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.70%EV -4.17%E -2.05%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-18 15:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.70%EV -4.17%E -2.05%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-18 15:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-18 09:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -10.75%E -5.66%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.47%EV -6.00%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -6.99%E -3.53%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.47%EV -7.35%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-18 11:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -8.40%E -4.31%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -1.30%E -0.346%K -0.472%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-16 09:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -8.40%E -4.31%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.61%E -0.706%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-17 09:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -8.87%E -4.57%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -2.61%E -0.706%K -0.968%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.40%E -4.31%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-18 14:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.40%E -4.31%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-18 14:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-18 09:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.39%EV -11.69%E -6.22%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -6.56%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.39%EV -11.69%E -6.22%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -6.56%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.39%EV -11.69%E -6.22%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -6.56%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-14 09:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.57%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.25%EV -8.87%E -4.57%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-17 09:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.70%E -1.81%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-14 09:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -6.99%E -3.53%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-18 06:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-18 11:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -5.11%E -2.53%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -11.83%E -3.53%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 09:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -5.11%E -2.53%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -11.83%E -3.53%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 09:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 09:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 09:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 09:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 09:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-14 09:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -10.75%E -5.66%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-18 10:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.83%EV -9.34%E -4.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-18 09:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-14 01:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.87%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.04%EV -8.87%E -4.57%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 26.90%EV -12.61%E -3.80%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-17 09:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.87%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -13.10%E -7.08%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-16 09:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -13.21%E -4.06%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -6.99%E -3.53%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-17 07:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -13.21%E -4.06%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-18 06:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -13.21%E -4.06%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-18 06:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -13.21%E -4.06%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-18 06:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -13.21%E -4.06%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-18 06:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -15.88%E -5.04%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.56%EV -8.87%E -4.57%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -11.83%E -3.53%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-17 07:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46% | 2.1% | 2026-09-18 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.90% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37% | 2.5% | 2026-09-18 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.90% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37% | 2.5% | 2026-09-18 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.90% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37% | 2.5% | 2026-09-18 14:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.90% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37% | 2.5% | 2026-09-18 15:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.14% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89% | 3.0% | 2026-09-18 15:05 |