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Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
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V-Varen Nagasaki v Cerezo Osaka

Início: 2026-09-19 09:30 UTC

Final: V-Varen Nagasaki 1–1 Cerezo Osaka

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

50 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)

Previsão 26.71%3.74odd justa
EV -3.33%
Vantagem -0.919%
Kelly -1.27%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.62

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.49%26.70%26.64%28.06%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.153.463.503.6231.75%28.90%28.57%27.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cerezo Osaka (Visitante)

Previsão 46.97%2.13odd justa
EV -3.70%
Vantagem -1.81%
Kelly -3.53%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.05

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.33%46.95%47.03%48.61%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.851.941.942.0554.05%51.42%51.68%48.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.32%3.80odd justa
EV -1.30%
Vantagem -0.346%
Kelly -0.472%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.03%26.35%26.33%27.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.323.533.553.7530.12%28.35%28.17%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 26.71%; Cerezo Osaka (Visitante): 46.97%; Empate: 26.32%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.80. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.75, com valor esperado de -1.30%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (50 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 26.55%EV -3.33%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.12%EV -4.17%E -2.05%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -3.93%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-18 13:40
1xBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -4.64%E -2.29%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 11:44
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.47%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.12%EV -6.99%E -3.53%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -1.30%E -0.346%K -0.472%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -9.34%E -4.84%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -3.93%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 09:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.43%EV -9.34%E -4.84%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -3.93%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 09:45
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 09:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 09:45
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -3.86%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -10.75%E -5.66%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-18 13:30
BetOnline.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.70%EV -4.17%E -2.05%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-18 15:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.70%EV -4.17%E -2.05%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-18 15:00
DraftKings🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 09:30
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -10.75%E -5.66%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-14 09:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 09:45
Casumo🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 09:45
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 09:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 09:45
TABtouch🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 09:45
betPARX🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -5.19%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.61%EV -11.22%E -5.94%K -12.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 09:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 26.47%EV -6.00%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -6.99%E -3.53%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.47%EV -7.35%E -2.09%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 11:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -8.40%E -4.31%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -1.30%E -0.346%K -0.472%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-16 09:30
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -8.40%E -4.31%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.61%E -0.706%K -0.968%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-17 09:34
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -8.87%E -4.57%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -2.61%E -0.706%K -0.968%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.40%E -4.31%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 14:14
BetAnything🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.40%E -4.31%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 14:14
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 09:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.39%EV -11.69%E -6.22%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -6.56%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 09:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.39%EV -11.69%E -6.22%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -6.56%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 09:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -6.53%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.39%EV -11.69%E -6.22%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -6.56%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 09:45
Bet Right🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.57%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.25%EV -8.87%E -4.57%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 09:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.70%E -1.81%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-14 09:35
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -6.99%E -3.53%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 06:14
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 11:40
NordicBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -5.11%E -2.53%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -11.83%E -3.53%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 09:35
Betsson🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -5.11%E -2.53%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -11.83%E -3.53%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 09:35
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 09:35
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 09:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 09:35
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.05%E -3.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 09:35
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -5.25%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-14 09:35
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -10.75%E -5.66%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 10:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.83%EV -9.34%E -4.84%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 09:35
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.20%E -2.71%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-14 01:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.87%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.04%EV -8.87%E -4.57%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.90%EV -12.61%E -3.80%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-17 09:34
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.87%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -13.10%E -7.08%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -7.88%E -2.25%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-16 09:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -13.21%E -4.06%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -6.99%E -3.53%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-17 07:00
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -13.21%E -4.06%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 06:15
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -13.21%E -4.06%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 06:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -13.21%E -4.06%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 06:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -13.21%E -4.06%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -10.28%E -5.38%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -10.51%E -3.09%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 06:14
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -15.88%E -5.04%K -7.38%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.56%EV -8.87%E -4.57%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -11.83%E -3.53%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-17 07:01
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.46%2.1%2026-09-18 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.90%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37%2.5%2026-09-18 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.90%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37%2.5%2026-09-18 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.90%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37%2.5%2026-09-18 14:35
Matchbook◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.73%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.90%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37%2.5%2026-09-18 15:05
Smarkets◎3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%3.0%2026-09-18 15:05