The School of Odds
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Tokyo Verdy v Kashiwa Reysol

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 05:00 UTC

Final: Tokyo Verdy 1–0 Kashiwa Reysol

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Verdy (Local)

Prediction 28.69%3.49fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.99%28.77%28.80%29.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.203.3533.33%31.52%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kashiwa Reysol (Visit)

Prediction 41.38%2.42fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.994%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.86%41.25%41.35%42.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.222.3647.62%44.83%45.05%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.93%3.34fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.838%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.86%29.98%29.85%30.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.063.053.2533.33%32.65%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Verdy (Local): 28.69%; Kashiwa Reysol (Visit): 41.38%; Draw: 29.93%. For Kashiwa Reysol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.36, with an expected value of -2.35%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.88%EV -3.89%E -1.16%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -3.17%E -1.36%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.77%EV -2.72%E -0.838%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-03 04:35
BetAnything🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -5.32%E -1.61%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.38%EV -2.35%E -0.994%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.74%EV -7.21%E -2.33%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-03 04:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.32%E -1.61%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.72%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 04:04
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -6.76%E -2.08%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.68%EV -8.14%E -3.67%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -7.21%E -2.33%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 04:05
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -6.76%E -2.08%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.68%EV -8.14%E -3.67%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -7.21%E -2.33%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 04:05
BetMGM🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -6.76%E -2.08%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.21%E -2.33%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 03:44
Marathon Bet🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -7.05%E -2.17%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.29%EV -6.48%E -2.87%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.91%EV -6.61%E -2.12%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 04:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 28.20%EV -7.62%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -11.04%E -5.13%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.57%EV -8.11%E -2.64%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 04:35
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.32%EV -2.76%E -1.17%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -5.72%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 04:55
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 04:35
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 04:19
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -8.19%E -2.56%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.65%EV -13.10%E -6.24%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -8.71%E -2.86%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-03 04:35
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.63%E -3.06%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -11.04%E -5.13%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -5.72%E -1.81%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 04:05
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -6.90%E -3.07%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.21%E -2.33%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 03:46
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 04:35
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 04:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 04:35
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -4.83%E -2.10%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 04:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.04%E -5.13%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 03:45
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.04%E -5.13%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 03:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.06%E -3.57%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -11.04%E -5.13%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 03:46
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -12.50%E -4.10%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.87%EV -13.10%E -6.24%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-03 04:05
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.93%E -4.64%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -8.97%E -4.08%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.21%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 04:56
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-05-03 04:56