The School of Odds
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Tokyo Verdy v Gamba Osaka

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 07:00 UTC

Final: Tokyo Verdy 2–4 Gamba Osaka

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tokyo Verdy (Local)

Prediction 46.38%2.16fair odd
EV -4.92%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -4.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.83%46.41%46.42%48.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.941.981.962.0551.55%50.45%51.15%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gamba Osaka (Visit)

Prediction 23.55%4.25fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.403%
Kelly +0.525%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.39%23.57%23.52%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.873.804.3228.57%25.87%26.32%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.07%3.33fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.422%
Kelly -0.607%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.14%30.02%30.06%30.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.033.003.2834.48%32.99%33.33%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tokyo Verdy (Local): 46.38%; Gamba Osaka (Visit): 23.55%; Draw: 30.07%. For Gamba Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 48.12%EV -6.77%E -3.37%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.39%EV +1.74%E +0.403%K +0.525%G +0.009%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.49%EV -1.38%E -0.422%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.4%2026-06-06 06:50
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -3.44%E -0.839%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -3.79%E -1.18%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-06 06:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.03%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.14%EV -3.79%E -1.18%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-06 06:49
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.79%E -2.19%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-06 06:28
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-06 06:30
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-06 06:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-06 06:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -5.79%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-06 06:30
BetAnything🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -6.97%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -5.29%E -1.68%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-06 06:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -4.92%E -2.40%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -8.30%E -2.72%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-06 06:49
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -4.92%E -2.40%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-06 06:50
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -4.92%E -2.40%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-06 06:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.10%EV -9.09%E -4.64%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-06 06:49
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -10.50%E -2.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-06 06:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.54%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.10%EV -10.98%E -2.90%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -9.80%E -3.27%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-06 06:47
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.61%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.81%E -4.42%K -6.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 06:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.61%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.81%E -4.42%K -6.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 06:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.61%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.81%E -4.42%K -6.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 06:30
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.61%EV -9.55%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -11.68%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -12.81%E -4.42%K -6.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-06 06:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -14.04%E -3.85%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -8.30%E -2.72%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-06 06:49
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -4.92%E -2.40%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -15.21%E -4.23%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -6.79%E -2.19%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-06 06:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.21%EV -10.02%E -5.16%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -17.57%E -5.02%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -11.30%E -3.83%K -5.80%G +0.000%14.0%2026-06-06 06:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.59%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.76%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.65%1.0%2026-06-06 06:30