The School of Odds
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Mito HollyHock v V-Varen Nagasaki

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 06:00 UTC

Final: Mito HollyHock 0–1 V-Varen Nagasaki

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mito HollyHock (Local)

Prediction 50.24%1.99fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.96%50.23%50.19%51.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.841.831.9556.18%54.27%54.64%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit)

Prediction 22.15%4.52fair odd
EV +0.552%
Edge +0.122%
Kelly +0.156%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.29%22.18%22.11%24.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.104.104.5426.67%24.38%24.39%22.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.61%3.62fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.636%
Kelly -0.886%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.88%27.59%27.70%28.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.303.5432.26%30.37%30.30%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mito HollyHock (Local): 50.24%; V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit): 22.15%; Draw: 27.61%. For V-Varen Nagasaki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.552%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.41%EV -5.55%E -2.95%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.29%EV +0.552%E +0.122%K +0.156%G +0.001%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.30%EV -2.25%E -0.636%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.5%2026-06-06 05:50
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -6.05%E -3.24%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.76%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-06 05:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.95%EV -8.06%E -4.41%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -5.87%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.11%EV -5.01%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-06 05:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -5.55%E -2.95%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.98%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-06 05:49
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.70%EV -6.05%E -3.24%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -6.98%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-06 05:50
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -8.06%E -4.41%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -6.98%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-06 05:49
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -8.06%E -4.41%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -6.98%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-06 05:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -8.06%E -4.41%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -6.98%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-06 05:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -8.06%E -4.41%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -6.98%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-06 05:49
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.57%E -5.32%K -11.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -6.98%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-06 05:49
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -5.55%E -2.95%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -9.19%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-06 05:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -9.57%E -5.32%K -11.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -9.19%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-06-06 05:50
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.78%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.30%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.74%EV -10.30%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-06 05:49
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.78%EV -7.06%E -3.82%K -8.30%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.74%EV -10.30%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-06 05:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.98%EV -8.57%E -4.71%K -10.45%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.46%EV -10.30%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-06 05:50
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.06%E -4.41%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -11.41%E -2.85%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -14.40%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-06 05:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.06%E -4.41%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -11.41%E -2.85%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -14.40%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-06 05:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.06%E -4.41%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -11.41%E -2.85%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -14.40%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-06 05:49
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.06%E -4.41%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -11.41%E -2.85%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -14.40%E -4.65%K -6.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-06-06 05:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.68%EV -7.56%E -4.11%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -13.62%E -3.49%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-06-06 05:49
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -2.03%E -1.04%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -16.94%E -4.52%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.64%E -3.64%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-06 05:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.45%EV -10.57%E -5.94%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.47%EV -16.94%E -4.52%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.08%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-06-06 05:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.03%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-06-06 05:50