The School of Odds
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Mito HollyHock v Kashima Antlers

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 05:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mito HollyHock (Local)

Prediction 23.74%4.21fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -0.895%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.22%23.76%23.74%24.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.863.804.0627.78%25.90%26.32%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kashima Antlers (Visit)

Prediction 48.92%2.04fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.84%48.86%49.00%49.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.881.881.9755.56%53.17%53.19%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.34%3.66fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -0.826%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.35%27.38%27.26%28.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.333.333.5531.25%29.99%30.08%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mito HollyHock (Local): 23.74%; Kashima Antlers (Visit): 48.92%; Draw: 27.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -2.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.06I 24.63%NM 23.78%EV -3.63%E -0.895%K -1.19%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.02%EV -3.62%E -1.84%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.20%EV -2.93%E -0.826%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 04:55
DraftKings🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.06%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -4.60%E -2.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 04:54
BetAnything🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -5.06%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.23%EV -6.56%E -3.43%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -5.67%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 04:40
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.06%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.37%EV -7.05%E -3.71%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -5.67%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 04:45
Marathon Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -5.06%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -8.03%E -4.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -5.94%E -1.73%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 04:54
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.06%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.56%E -3.43%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 04:54
Betsson🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -7.43%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -8.03%E -4.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 04:44
NordicBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -7.43%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -8.03%E -4.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 04:44
Betclic (FR)🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 23.47%EV -7.91%E -2.04%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.50%EV -9.98%E -5.43%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.03%EV -7.85%E -2.33%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 04:45
Unibet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -8.62%E -2.24%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.88%EV -11.94%E -6.63%K -14.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -8.40%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-04 04:44
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.56%E -3.43%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -7.03%E -2.07%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 04:05
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.56%E -3.43%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -11.14%E -3.43%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 04:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.56%E -3.43%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -11.14%E -3.43%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 04:54
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.56%E -3.43%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -11.14%E -3.43%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 04:54
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.56%E -3.43%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -11.14%E -3.43%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 04:54
BoyleSports🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -8.52%E -4.55%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 04:34
Neds🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -9.50%E -5.13%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.50%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 04:55
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -9.50%E -5.13%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.50%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 04:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -9.50%E -5.13%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.50%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 04:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -9.80%E -2.58%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -9.50%E -5.13%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.50%E -3.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 04:54
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.99%E -2.93%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.41%EV -9.98%E -5.43%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -5.67%E -1.64%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 04:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.44%EV -14.55%E -4.04%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.89%EV -11.94%E -6.63%K -14.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -9.77%E -2.96%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-04 04:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-04-04 04:55