The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Kyoto Purple Sanga v Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 06:00 UTC

Final: Kyoto Purple Sanga 0–4 Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local)

Prediction 26.08%3.83fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.446%
Kelly -0.607%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.40%26.10%26.06%26.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.513.503.7730.30%28.52%28.57%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit)

Prediction 47.32%2.11fair odd
EV -5.36%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -5.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.92%47.20%47.31%48.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.941.952.0053.76%51.45%51.28%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.60%3.76fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.425%
Kelly -0.582%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.69%26.71%26.63%27.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.443.463.7030.77%29.06%28.90%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local): 26.08%; Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Visit): 47.32%; Draw: 26.60%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -1.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.77I 26.53%NM 25.62%EV -1.68%E -0.446%K -0.607%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -1.57%E -0.425%K -0.582%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-17 05:45
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 05:55
BetAnything🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.23%E -1.18%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 05:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -6.31%E -3.19%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 05:50
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 05:55
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.12%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 05:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -6.64%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.12%EV -6.31%E -3.19%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.81%EV -7.43%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 05:55
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.42%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 05:50
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.42%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 05:50
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 05:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 05:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.21%E -3.70%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 05:55
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.62%E -5.04%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -6.89%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 05:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.84%EV -10.09%E -5.31%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.19%EV -7.69%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 05:49
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -8.72%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -11.51%E -6.16%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -8.22%E -2.38%K -3.36%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 05:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.49%EV -9.15%E -4.76%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -5.56%E -1.57%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 05:51
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.62%E -5.04%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 05:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.62%E -5.04%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 05:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.62%E -5.04%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 05:40
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -9.62%E -5.04%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 05:40
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.33%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -13.54%E -4.17%K -6.02%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-17 05:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.70%EV -13.94%E -4.22%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 47.38%EV -11.99%E -6.44%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -9.55%E -2.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-17 05:51
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%1.0%2026-05-17 05:55