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Kyoto Purple Sanga v Fagiano Okayama

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 07:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local)

Prediction 43.67%2.29fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.08%43.52%43.66%44.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.102.2250.00%47.33%47.62%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fagiano Okayama (Visit)

Prediction 27.93%3.58fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -0.968%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.16%27.92%27.96%28.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.253.253.4632.26%30.76%30.77%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.39%3.52fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -0.931%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.46%28.56%28.38%29.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.193.203.4132.26%31.33%31.25%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local): 43.67%; Fagiano Okayama (Visit): 27.93%; Draw: 28.39%. For Kyoto Purple Sanga (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.22, with an expected value of -3.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.62%EV -3.05%E -1.37%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.99%EV -3.35%E -0.968%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.40%EV -3.17%E -0.931%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-11 06:50
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -3.92%E -1.78%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -11.98%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 06:50
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.11%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 06:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.61%EV -6.11%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 05:13
BetAnything🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.11%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 06:49
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -6.11%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.98%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 06:20
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -6.11%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.98%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 06:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -6.11%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.98%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 06:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -6.11%E -2.84%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.98%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 06:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.29%EV -4.47%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 06:50
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 05:14
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.72%E -2.37%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 05:15
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -9.21%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 05:15
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.98%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 06:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.98%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 06:20
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.98%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 06:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.29%E -3.95%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.98%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 06:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -10.47%E -5.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.20%EV -8.57%E -2.66%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 06:33
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -10.47%E -5.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -6.30%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-11 05:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -12.66%E -6.33%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-11 06:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -12.66%E -6.33%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-11 05:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72%1.1%2026-04-11 05:40