The School of Odds
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Kawasaki Frontale v FC Machida Zelvia

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 10:00 UTC

Final: Kawasaki Frontale 1–1 FC Machida Zelvia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kawasaki Frontale (Local)

Prediction 28.74%3.48fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -0.762%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.40%28.79%28.75%30.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.173.203.3933.90%31.55%31.25%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Machida Zelvia (Visit)

Prediction 41.74%2.40fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.94%41.73%41.73%42.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.202.202.3147.62%45.54%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.52%3.39fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.35%29.48%29.52%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.103.2733.33%32.10%32.26%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kawasaki Frontale (Local): 28.74%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visit): 41.74%; Draw: 29.52%. For Kawasaki Frontale (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.39, with an expected value of -2.58%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.39I 29.50%NM 28.54%EV -2.58%E -0.762%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.88%EV -3.58%E -1.55%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.58%EV -3.45%E -1.06%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 08:16
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.17%E -1.57%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.52%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.61%E -2.03%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 08:00
Marathon Bet🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -6.89%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -6.92%E -3.10%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -6.11%E -1.92%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:20
BetAnything🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.04%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:05
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.17%E -3.72%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -5.52%E -1.73%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 08:00
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.50%EV -7.34%E -3.31%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 08:00
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.50%EV -7.34%E -3.31%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 08:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.65%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.06%EV -9.01%E -4.13%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.29%EV -7.59%E -2.42%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-17 07:59
Unibet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -10.26%E -4.77%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 08:00
888sport🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.17%E -3.72%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 08:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.17%E -3.72%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 08:10
888sport (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.17%E -3.72%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 08:11
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -8.04%E -2.51%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.17%E -3.72%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 08:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -10.92%E -3.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -10.26%E -4.77%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -7.00%E -2.22%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-17 07:59
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.92%E -3.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.26%E -4.77%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 07:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.92%E -3.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.26%E -4.77%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 07:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.92%E -3.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.26%E -4.77%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 07:55
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.92%E -3.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.26%E -4.77%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -8.47%E -2.73%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 08:00
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.92%E -3.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.26%E -4.77%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.43%E -3.81%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-17 07:55
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -13.79%E -4.60%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -4.04%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 08:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.66%EV -15.23%E -5.16%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.66%EV -12.35%E -5.88%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -9.95%E -3.26%K -4.85%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-17 08:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.60%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.0%2026-05-17 07:56