The School of Odds
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Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 07:00 UTC

Final: Kashiwa Reysol 1–0 Kawasaki Frontale

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kashiwa Reysol (Local)

Prediction 44.58%2.24fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.63%44.60%44.55%46.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.052.052.1750.51%48.77%48.78%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kawasaki Frontale (Visit)

Prediction 28.87%3.46fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.62%28.88%28.87%29.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.193.203.3233.90%31.35%31.25%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.55%3.77fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.552%
Kelly -0.757%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.51%26.52%26.58%27.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.433.453.6930.77%29.19%28.99%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kashiwa Reysol (Local): 44.58%; Kawasaki Frontale (Visit): 28.87%; Draw: 26.55%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.69, with an expected value of -2.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.61%EV -3.25%E -1.50%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.16%EV -4.16%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.23%EV -2.04%E -0.552%K -0.757%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-10 04:05
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.89%EV -6.37%E -3.04%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.74%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -5.75%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-10 04:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.37%E -3.04%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.18%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 04:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -6.37%E -3.04%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.48%EV -6.55%E -1.86%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 04:05
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -6.37%E -3.04%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -6.18%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.74%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 04:04
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -7.27%E -3.49%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -8.41%E -2.44%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 04:04
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -7.27%E -3.49%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.76%EV -8.41%E -2.44%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 04:04
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.60%E -4.20%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.08%E -2.02%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 04:04
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -8.60%E -4.20%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -12.39%E -3.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 04:05
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -8.60%E -4.20%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -12.39%E -3.75%K -5.39%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-10 04:04
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.60%E -4.20%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.40%E -4.47%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.74%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-10 04:04
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -8.60%E -4.20%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.72%E -4.22%K -6.10%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-10 04:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -8.60%E -4.20%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.72%E -4.22%K -6.10%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-10 04:05
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -8.60%E -4.20%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.72%E -4.22%K -6.10%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-10 04:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -8.60%E -4.20%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.72%E -4.22%K -6.10%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-10 04:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.09%EV -9.50%E -4.68%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.30%EV -7.61%E -2.19%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-10 04:03
BetAnything🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -9.94%E -4.92%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -4.74%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -8.41%E -2.44%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 16:40
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -10.83%E -5.42%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.74%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.43%E -1.23%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-07 14:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.83%E -5.42%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -4.74%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.74%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-06 13:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.83%E -5.42%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -4.74%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.74%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-06 13:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.36%EV -10.83%E -5.42%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -7.62%E -2.38%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -8.41%E -2.44%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 04:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -10.83%E -5.42%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.51%E -3.39%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -5.75%E -1.62%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-10 04:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.37%EV -11.72%E -5.92%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -14.84%E -5.03%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -9.74%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-10 04:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%2.1%2026-05-10 02:45