The School of Odds
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Kashiwa Reysol v Kashima Antlers

Kickoff: 2026-04-24 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kashiwa Reysol (Local)

Prediction 39.56%2.53fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.63%39.57%39.57%40.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.302.4445.45%43.16%43.48%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kashima Antlers (Visit)

Prediction 31.58%3.17fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -0.995%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.71%31.57%31.54%32.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.903.0737.04%34.31%34.48%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.87%3.46fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -0.985%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.98%28.87%28.89%29.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.183.203.3532.26%31.48%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kashiwa Reysol (Local): 39.56%; Kashima Antlers (Visit): 31.58%; Draw: 28.87%. For Kashima Antlers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.07, with an expected value of -3.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.63%EV -3.48%E -1.43%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.50%EV -3.05%E -0.995%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.30%E -0.985%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-24 03:45
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.07%E -2.11%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.19%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-24 03:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.38%EV -5.86%E -2.46%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -6.84%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.19%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 03:25
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -5.86%E -2.46%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-24 03:25
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -5.86%E -2.46%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-24 03:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -5.86%E -2.46%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-24 03:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -5.86%E -2.46%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-24 03:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.71%EV -7.04%E -3.00%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.31%EV -5.90%E -1.98%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.98%EV -7.05%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 03:29
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -7.04%E -3.00%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.70%EV -7.79%E -2.67%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.63%E -2.38%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:25
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -7.04%E -3.00%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.70%EV -7.79%E -2.67%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.63%E -2.38%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:24
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.02%E -3.92%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.19%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-24 03:15
BetAnything🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.02%E -3.92%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.19%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-24 03:40
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -9.02%E -3.92%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.63%E -2.38%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-24 02:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.02%E -3.92%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.63%E -2.38%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-24 03:23
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.02%E -3.92%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -11.58%E -4.14%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -6.19%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-24 03:24
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.02%E -3.92%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -11.58%E -4.14%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-24 03:20
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -11.00%E -4.89%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -5.26%E -1.75%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.19%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 19:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -11.00%E -4.89%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -8.42%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.63%E -2.38%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-24 03:25
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.00%E -4.89%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.05%E -3.14%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-24 03:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.00%E -4.89%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.05%E -3.14%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-24 03:15
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -11.00%E -4.89%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -9.37%E -3.26%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-24 03:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -11.00%E -4.89%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -9.37%E -3.26%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-24 03:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.61%EV -12.98%E -5.90%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.28%EV -14.74%E -5.46%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -10.52%E -3.39%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-24 03:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 39.79%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.02%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-04-24 03:50